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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS SEPTEMBER 20, 2013 by Dick Powell Wise Dan (Wiseman's Ferry) was Horse of the Year last year and unless he completely flops in whatever Breeders' Cup race Charles LoPresti decides to run him in, it looks like he'll win it again. In Sunday's $1 million Woodbine Mile (G1), he scared away most of the competition and the opponents that ducked him turned out to be right. It's not good for a horse's psyche to be thrashed the way Wise Dan did to that field. Facing only five rivals, Johnny Velazquez let Wise Dan settle early behind a modest pace of 23.15 and 45.44 seconds. He pulled three wide on the far turn and waited as long as possible before pouncing on the leaders. The field turned for home and it was only a matter of time and how much he would win by. Even with six furlongs run in 1:08.50, Velazquez had not asked him for any run and when he loosened his grip and gave the six-year-old veteran the gas, the response was explosive. Wise Dan quickly opened up three lengths with a furlong to go and cruised home from there, running his last quarter in 23.25 seconds with the final time for the mile a sensational 1:31.75. There have been a few faster miles run on the turf in history but you would be hard pressed to find one won this easily. Most likely, LoPresti will train him up to the Breeders' Cup Mile (G1) at Santa Anita. He could make a stop at Keeneland for the Shadwell Mile (G1) but that seems unlikely. It looked like he got enough out of the race with his sensational last half-mile and it will probably be up to the international runners to provide any real competition for him. As for his competition and path-of-least-resistance racing schedule, let's not forget that he's still running sensationally at the age of six. LoPresti is doing all the right things with him and can't be blamed for who he is up against. The Woodbine Mile is a big race on the calendar and most headed for the hills as if Mongo rode into town. I want him on his best for the first Saturday in November to face the international shippers and it looks like we are going to get it. One thing about handicapping 420 races at Saratoga is that it usually serves as a great scouting mission for when the action returns to Belmont. Not this year! There seems to be a carryover every day as favorites have only won 17 for the first 81 races of the meet (21 percent). It has been so tough that only one favorite has won in the last 27 races and the result was a gigantic $530K carryover going into Thursday's races. The main reason for everyone having trouble picking winners at Belmont has been the pronounced speed bias on the main track. If you go to the front, you are in great shape and if you go to the front and are racing on the rail, get ready to have your photo taken in the winner's circle. I have never seen so many horses spin their wheels on the outside trying to rally with no success. The bias was unbeatable over the weekend and it looked like after two races on Wednesday, it might not be a factor anymore but speed continued to win. When speed dominates, it's still hard to judge which speed horse will best take advantage of it and pile of ripped-up tickets attests to how hard it is. The weather has been remarkably consistent and that might be a factor in extending it but until further notice, speed rules at Belmont. I don't know what the expectations for the new Pick 5 at Belmont were but NYRA has to be happy with the results. It's been in six figures every day with $298K bet on it last Saturday. I don't know what it has done to the Pick 4 pool but even with some of the short fields that the first five races on the card often contain, it looks like the pool numbers will hold up. The bettors seem to be pleased with the $0.50 bet increment, the 15 percent takeout and the fact that it just seems to be way more hittable than the Pick 6 with some of the shorter fields. Nothing is stopping you from playing it four times to get the $2 bet increment of the Pick 6 but even at $0.50, the prices have been pretty good.
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