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HANDICAPPING TWO-YEAR-OLDS AT KEENELAND APRIL 13, 2006 by Rich Nilsen Opened in the spring of 1965, the 4 1/2-furlong Headley Course is named for Hal Price Headley, one of Keeneland's founders. Every spring at Keeneland, it is the focal point of races exclusively carded for two-year-olds. With a short dash into the far turn followed by a quick left-hand turn into the stretch, the 4 1/2-furlong races are a challenge to both the racing fan as well as the juveniles that are asked to negotiate the trip. Despite fields usually containing all first-time starters, two-year-old racing is one of the highlights every year at the prestigious Spring Meet. Handicapping these races with so many "unknowns" can be intimidating to horseplayers, but by applying the right fundamentals, these races can be tackled, and done so very successfully. Begin with the connections. It's the top trainers and jockeys who win the overwhelming majority of the juvenile events. George Arnold, Steve Asmussen, Larry Jones, Rebecca Maker, Graham Motion, Todd Pletcher and Ronnie Werner are the trainers you need to know when handicapping two-year-old races here at Keeneland. Each have won more than 20-percent of their two-year-old starts during the past three seasons according to the popular handicapping guide Track Stats 2006 (www.tsnhorse.com, 1-800-876-0330). Other horsemen to keep an eye out for include Tom Amoss, D. Wayne Lukas, Bill Mott, Dale Romans and Eric Reed. The dominant jockey at last year's spring meet was John Velazquez, who was victorious with five of his nine mounts in juvenile races. He failed to hit the board with only one mount. There are two good reasons for Velazquez's success. He is one of the best gate jockeys in the country, and he rides first call for Todd Pletcher. Rafael Bejarano was the only other jockey with multiple winners, scoring with two of 10 mounts. The next step is to analyze the worktab. Two-year-olds will often flash early speed in the morning if they are going to do so in the afternoon. Four-furlong works in sub :48 clockings, for example, should be duly noted. Workouts with an average of 12 seconds or less per furlong can pinpoint a runner with tremendous potential. That angle is especially important because early speed dominates. Horses on or near the early lead will win the majority of the maiden sprints. Since many of the runners have not started before, the handicapper is often forced to predict who will demonstrate the required early speed. Twelve two-year-old races were run at last year's spring meet, and nine of those being won gate to wire (75 percent). Those races that weren't won on the front end were not won from too far off the early pace. Early speed is dominant, and determining who that early speed will be is critical. Pedigree analysis can aid the horseplayer in identifying the precocious runners who are likely to show good early lick. Knowing the tendencies of the sire and dam can help determine who will come out running early. Brisnet.com provides this data in the Ultimate Past Performances. Some of the crucial information provided in the Ultimate PPs are the debut win percentage and average winning distance of the sire's offspring, the dam's win percentage with two-year-old starters, and the runner's sales price at auction. The debut win percentage of the sire's offspring is an excellent indicator of a horse's chances first time out of the box. A debut win percentage greater than 15 percent is ideal, and over 20 percent can warrant a best bet type wager. Table 1 presents some of the best stallions at siring winners in their first career start. When handicapping these two-year-old events don't overlook the offspring of these outstanding debut sires.
* Or any of his sons at stud A low Average Winning Distance (AWD) of the sire's offspring will indicate speed in the pedigree. Look for an AWD below seven furlongs, and the closer to six furlongs, the better. Runners with high AWDs may need more ground than the 4.5 furlongs offered at Keeneland and, therefore, can be noteworthy runners to watch down the road. A runner who is out a stakes-winning dam or out of a dam that has produced several winners is also more likely to fire first time out. Auction sales price can be another identifying factor to point out runners with great potential. This is especially true with two-year-olds who were sold at public auction earlier this year. Look for a sales price several times higher than the sire's stud fee. Juveniles sometimes win from outside posts at Keeneland, but an outside draw is not preferred. In fact, only one winner broke from outside post six in the races coming out of the 4 1/2-furlong chute last year. Seven of the 12 winning juveniles broke from posts 1 through 4. Finally, keep a close eye on the toteboard, especially the opening odds. Runners whose odds open at or below their morning line-odds are ones to take note of. Often, the early money can identify "live" runners. If the other pieces of the puzzle are in place, you may have found yourself a great bet. Good luck!
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