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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS APRIL 28, 2006 by Dick Powell The Kentucky Derby (G1) is fast upon us and before we get entries, post positions or projected track conditions, now is a good time to do some background work before next Wednesday evening when we will finally know which 20 horses will be entering the starting gate. You will hear and read a lot about workouts leading up to the Derby with most of the major preparations done by this weekend. A couple of things to remember. A horse that is working well and carrying his flesh is the norm. After all, these are Grade 1 horses that have been pointed for this race so the norm is work well and look great. Anyone that doesn’t meet this standard has to be viewed as very suspect. However, you have to avoid the prism of the trainer in how well a horse is working or how great they look. Go back over the years and read the stories on trainers saying their horse looks great, has never trained better, etc. and you will come to realize that their credibility is highly suspect. If a horse is training poorly, ignore the trainer's remarks that it was part of his/her plan. If a horse doesn't look like a Grade 1 three-year-old at this time of year, ignore the trainer's remarks that he's been hitting the feed tub with a vengeance every night. Remember Bobby Frankel assuring us that all was well with EMPIRE MAKER (Unbridled) after he veered out wildly in a workout two days before the Derby. Who were you going to believe - Bobby or your lying eyes? As for the workouts themselves, it used to be an advantage to be stabled at Churchill and work fast over the strip. But in recent years, that angle doesn't seem to be that important. One reason is the Churchill racing surface on Derby Day is usually markedly different from the racing surface that horses train over in the previous weeks. And unless you have a catbird's seat at Churchill the next 10 days, you have to rely on others for workout information - the clocker's objective measurement of the work and the media's subjective impression of how easily they did it. My problem with many of the people commenting on the workouts is that they fall in love with a horse that goes slow early and fast late. Believe me, any Grade 1-caliber three-year-old can go 37 seconds for three furlongs and then finish up in 11 and change for his last furlong of a half-mile workout. You'll hear raves about how well he finished and comments from the trainer that it was just what we needed. The exercise rider will complain about how their arms were cramping up trying to restrain him. And at the end of the day, it usually means nothing. A couple of years ago, Proud Citizen worked :58 and change for five furlongs and the work was widely panned. It was viewed as being too fast and that he got tired toward the end. But, it was just what Proud Citizen needed and he ran a great second on the day that it counted. If you already like a horse for the Derby, I would stay with your selection unless he works out with a cast on his leg or on crutches. ***** Pedigrees have not been getting much attention lately since the Dosage Theory has been beaten a few times recently. This year, LAWYER RON (Langfuhr) is not only going to have to overcome some very slow Speed figures, but his dosage index is 4.13, meaning that his pedigree is heavily tilted toward speed and that he will have trouble getting 10 furlongs on the first Saturday of May. SINISTER MINISTER (Old Trieste) has a dosage index of 4.00, which also makes his ability to carry his brilliant speed 10 furlongs questionable. ***** Of all the major contenders, BOB AND JOHN (Seeking the Gold) is the youngest having been born in May, 2003, and will be not quite three on the first Saturday in May. ***** Using BRIS Speed figures, Sinister Minister, SWEETNORTHERNSAINT (Sweetsouthernsaint), JAZIL (Seeking the Gold), MISTER TRIESTER (Old Trieste) and SHARP HUMOR (Distorted Humor) have all run career best figures in their last start and might be eligible to bounce. I did not include BARBARO (Dynaformer) who ran the same Speed figure of 104 in his last two starts. ***** There are tough beats. Then, there are tough beats in major races. Then, there are tough beats in $5 million races. Then, your horse hooks a leg around a rail in the walking ring, injures its stifle, and has to be scratched from a $5 million race without the chance to run. This is precisely what happened to Team Valor’s IRRIDESCENCE (Caesour) in the $5 million Dubai Duty Free S. (UAE-G1) at Nad al Sheba on March 25. Irridescence hooked a right rear leg around a railing on the outside of the walking ring and was stuck there for minutes. With trainer Michael de Kock anxiously looking on, she was finally extricated but not before injuring herself, forcing her to be withdrawn. Luckily for de Kock and Team Valor, there are major international races on the calendar for those willing to get on the plane and go find them. Exactly four weeks later, Irridescence showed up last Sunday at Hong Kong for the Queen Elizabeth II Cup (HK-G1) run at 2000 meters at Sha Tin. The purse was HK$14 million, which converts to about $1.8 million in U.S. dollars. Not quite the $5 million pot she missed in Dubai, but still a healthy amount. With a big field of 13, jockey Weichong Marwing sent Irridescence right to the front where she was able to back down the pace. The first 1200 meters (about six furlongs) was run in a pokey 1:16.1 and Marwing was able to dictate circumstances as the field bunched up behind him. Turning for home, he briefly gave up the lead when he drifted slightly, but quickly regained the advantage and braced for the expected onslaught of closers. Ouija Board (GB) (Cape Cross [Ire]), with her new rider Frankie Dettori and her furious late rush, was making up ground with every stride, with Best Gift (Bahhare) and Super Kid (Gaius) arriving on the scene late as well. But Marwing timed his stretch run perfectly and Irridescence held on by a desperate head in a three-horse photo. After the slow early pace, she flew home to cover her last 800 meters in :45.90 and finished the 2,000 meters in 2:02. For Ouija Board, it was another disappointing result after a strong effort. In the Dubai Sheema Classic (UAE-G1), she was hung out wide as Heart's Cry (Sunday Silence) went wire to wire. Her owners promptly fired Kieren Fallon and used Frankie Dettori last Saturday, but once again things did not go her way as no one challenged Irridescence early on a leisurely pace. Hopefully, these two great race mares can match up this summer at 10 furlongs on firm ground and get a true test of who is better. The only time we might get to see them over here before the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1) is possibly the Beverly D. S. (G1) in August at Arlington Park.
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