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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS MAY 5, 2006 by Dick Powell What's the best part of picking the winner of the Kentucky Derby (G1)? Every time they show the replay of the race later that night your horse wins. It's like winning 50 races in a row. What's the worst part of trying to pick the winner of the Kentucky Derby (G1)? Too many variables to factor into the equation. Let's go back to last year. The incongruous result of 50-1 Giacomo (Holy Bull) beating 70-1 Closing Argument (Successful Appeal) was due to a bizarre track condition that carried speed but favored outside paths. Horses that raced on the inside had no shot, and the top two were both challenged by pedigree limitations. The large field resulted in bad trips for many and if the race were run 20 times, we probably would have had eight different winners. AFLEET ALEX (Northern Afleet) was the best horse that day but could only finish third when he drifted back inside to the quicksand in the deep stretch. He proved his superiority with an amazing win in the Preakness (G1) and a dominating romp in the Belmont S. (G1), but even he could not overcome the adversity that a 20-horse field poses on a mile track. The 132nd running of the Run for the Roses will have a 20-horse field and, with little to separate the top contenders, how do you factor in all the other circumstances (seen and unseen) that we are confronted with each year? We now know who is entered, what the post positions are and can make a reasonable guess about the weather. Is it enough? Let’s just try to handicap this year's Derby like any other race. Bob Baffert might be blowing smoke about SINISTER MINISTER (Old Trieste) going to the front, but I have to take him at his word. He has the speedy KEYED ENTRY (Honour and Glory) to his inside and SHARP HUMOR (Distorted Humor) a couple of stalls farther out in the gate. Breaking from post 4, Victor Espinoza has no choice but to put the pedal down out of the gate and outsprint the field like he did in the Blue Grass (G1) last time out. Keyed Entry is suspect going 10 furlongs and he might let Sinister Minister go in an effort to conserve energy. Sharp Humor will have no such choice and Mark Guidry will have to use him early. The question is what do the outside horses do. LAWYER RON (Langfuhr) and BROTHER DEREK (Benchmark) both drew way outside and their riders will have to clear the stalkers heading toward the finish line for the first time to gain position. All the ingredients are in place for a demanding pace duel, but more importantly, it should stretch the field out and keep them from bunching up like they did last year. The stalkers should be BOB AND JOHN (Seeking the Gold), BARBARO (Dynaformer), A. P. WARRIOR (A.P. Indy), SWEETNORTHERNSAINT (Sweetsouthernsaint) and PRIVATE VOW (Broken Vow). This group might have the most traffic since they all want to do the same thing -- sit off the early speed but be the first to take the lead before the closers get unwound. If this scenario unfolds (and it is the most likely of all to happen), I think the race will go to a stalker. The closers will have to have too many things fall into place. Not knowing how the track will play or how it will change during the long day of racing at Churchill Downs on Saturday, I think the ability to run well over a variety of racing surfaces becomes a major plus. Morning-line favorite Brother Derek has done nothing wrong this year but seems to have had everything go his way. Since winning the Hollywood Futurity (G1) in December, he's had three relatively easy wins at Santa Anita to get ready. But the Kentucky Derby is not run at Santa Anita and from post 18, he's a toss in my opinion. I was glad he won the Santa Anita Derby (G1) so that he would take even more money. He's the 3-1 morning line favorite and while it would make a great human interest story if trainer Dan Hendricks were to win, I'll try to stay logical and not emotional. The co-second betting choice on the morning line at 4-1 is Lawyer Ron, who has found a home on dirt. Usually horses start out on dirt, but this guy began his career on turf then failed on the Polytrack at Turfway Park last September. After breaking his maiden on a sloppy main track at Keeneland in his dirt debut, he went back for two more failed attempts on the turf at Churchill last November. Trainer Bob Holthus took him to Louisiana where he promptly won a first-level allowance race at Louisiana Downs, a stakes on New Year's Eve at Evangeline Downs and then a romp in the Risen Star (G3) back at Louisiana Downs. On to Arkansas where Holthus winters and Lawyer Ron just kept getting better. He swept the three Derby prep races in Hot Springs and goes to the Derby with a seven-for-seven record on dirt. With the success of Smarty Jones and Afleet Alex in the last two Triple Crown series, Lawyer Ron has accomplished just as much. And, he has shown that he can handle various dirt tracks and run in traffic without getting keyed up. His problem is he has had 14 starts and does not give the look of a horse that still might be improving. Holthus is a top horsemen and will have him as ready as can be, but from post 17 I can't see him running in the money. The other morning line choice at 4-1 is Barbaro and unlike the other two, it's hard to find anything wrong with him. He's five for five, the first three on turf, and comes into this year's Derby lightly raced. He drew post 8 and unless he gets involved with the early pace duel, Barbaro should work out a decent trip. Edgar Prado is a master rider and Michael Matz is looking to become the first trainer in 50 years to win the Derby off a five-week layoff. He runs well fresh and his campaign has been designed by Matz to peak on the first Saturday of May. Hard not to like. But at 4-1 morning line, I’ll try to beat Barbaro with another stalker. Bob and John was no match for Brother Derek in December in the Hollywood Futurity and it looks like trainer Bob Baffert decided to avoid him at all costs. After getting back on the winning track in a first-level allowance event, Bob and John came back and won the Sham S. (G3) in good time while toting top weight. In the San Felipe S. (G2) next time out, he was clobbered early, dropped far back and made a good middle move before weakening late. He was carrying high weight that day and spotting A. P. Warrior and Point Determined three and six pounds, respectively. Plus, it looked like an educational trip after breaking poorly and he wound up racing behind horses with dirt kicked in his face. Baffert then shipped him to Aqueduct for the Wood Memorial (G1) and even though he beat two horses that I do not like on Saturday, he won very professionally on a sloppy track after a cross-country flight. Baffert took him back to California where he has tightened the screws. His six furlong workout on April 29 in 1:11 2/5 was brilliant. He galloped along with his head down in a rhythmic stride that conveyed both power and grace. He goes faster than he looks and gives every impression that 10 furlongs is well within his scope. Bob and John has answered most questions asked as have his human connections. Baffert is going for his fourth Derby win and Garrett Gomez is one of the hottest riders in America today. He drew post 7 which should be perfect as long as he breaks well. With Sinister Minister ensuring a fast pace, the race should set up perfectly for him. He's my top choice. Sweetnorthernsaint is a remarkable horse that will put the bounce theory to a stiff test on Saturday. His win in the Illinois Derby (G2) last out was brilliant with final Pace numbers usually earned by turf horses in paceless races. I wasn't crazy about how Kent Desormeaux rode him in the Gotham (G3) two starts back, but he looked like he learned his lesson last out when sitting as chilly as can be. The question is not how good he is, but can he come close to running the same race that he did last out? Sweetnorthernsaint earned a huge BRIS Speed figure of 114. Usually horses that run career tops by a wide margin go backward next time out so Sweetnorthernsaint will need every ounce of his immense talent to put another huge effort back to back. He could be that good. Sweetnorthernsaint is a free-running horse that will relax if allowed to do what he wants. He drew post 11 and will be one of the first to load. He has shown a tendency to break a bit tardy, which would be deadly if he does so against 19 rivals. I was very tempted to put him on top, but can't pull the trigger. I'll play him second. Barbaro is undefeated in five starts and of all the favorites, I think he has the best chance of winning or running his race and getting in the money. His two nine-furlong efforts on dirt were strong and he gives the impression that there's more gas left in the tank. He usually stalks the pace while close up but will be in a brave new world on Saturday, back in the second flight with lots of company. A win by him would not surprise me, but I’ll drop him down to third at odds that are less than his realistic chance. My sentimental horse that I would love to see win is STEPPENWOLFER (Aptitude). Danny and Sandy Peitz are two of the best people you could meet in the racing game. He'll be far back early and will need some luck to maneuver through the pack as the speed horses begin to tire. Peitz is an extremely underrated horsemen who understands that his horse needs distance and will finally get it on Saturday. His six-furlong breeze in 1:13 was exactly what you would expect from a deep closer, and it looks like all systems go.
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