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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS MAY 12, 2006 by Dick Powell One of the more frustrating aspects of harness racing is when your horse breaks stride at the start of a race. Even though a pacer or a trotter can get back on gait and run their race, they almost never win. In Saturday's Kentucky Derby (G1), if you bet Bob and John (Seeking the Gold) like I did, you felt like your horse broke stride at the start. It's bad enough to get pinched back once, but twice in a 20-horse field is too much to take. Besides having to snatch up when BARBARO (Dynaformer) came in and Showing Up (Strategic Mission) came out a few strides out of the gate, Bob and John was pushed back to the rear even farther when A. P. Warrior (A.P. Indy) came over and bumped him into Point Determined (Point Given). Instead of being up with the first flight of stalkers, Bob and John was 13th the first time the bulky field hit the wire. Game over. Sweetnorthernsaint (Sweetsouthernsaint), who took enough late money to make him the 11-2 favorite at post time, was equally roughed up at the start and then going into the first turn. The only place for Kent Desormeaux to go was the inside and while the rail was not as dead as it was last year, it still was not the place to be. Game over. Barbaro broke a bit awkwardly for Edgar Prado, coming in on Bob and John, but recovered quickly to set up shop in a perfect stalking position next to his stablemate Showing Up while stalking Keyed Entry (Honour and Glory) and Sinister Minister (Old Trieste). The expected outside pressure from Lawyer Ron (Langfuhr), Brother Derek (Benchmark) and Sharp Humor (Distorted Humor) never materialized and Barbaro went into the first turn in a position that trainer Michael Matz could not have drawn up any better on paper. Game on. Just like he showed in the Florida Derby (G1), Barbaro was able to use his early speed to gain position but then relax under his rider's orders. From the time the field hit the backstretch, Prado had this field measured. With the runners behind him having so many problems and two speedballs in front that he could reel in any time he wanted, Prado's toughest job was resisting the urge to tap the gas pedal and go to the lead. It couldn't have set up any better for him but remember, it was his own speed and quickness that got him to this prominent place as well as a brilliant :46 half-mile drill that Matz put into him the week before. Even with a pokey :26.14 fourth quarter around the far turn, Prado was able to keep Barbaro under wraps until the top of the stretch when he seized command and flew home with one of the most memorable last quarters in Kentucky Derby history (:24.34) as he drew off to a dominant 6 1/2-length victory. Bluegrass Cat (Storm Cat) rallied for second with Ramon Dominguez and Steppenwolfer (Aptitude) was third. For Barbaro, it kept his career record undefeated with six starts - three on turf and three on dirt. He gives every indication of getting even better and his owners are pondering options that were once unthinkable, including the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1) in October. He will run on anything and by passing up all the rich juvenile stakes on dirt last year, Barbaro is probably as sound as any horse we have had at this point in a long time. For Roy and Gretchen Jackson of Lael Stables, it was a memorable day of international racing. Their homebred Barbaro won the Kentucky Derby about eight hours after another three-year-old they bred, GEORGE WASHINGTON (Danehill), won the English Two Thousand Guineas (Eng-G1) at Newmarket for owners Susan Magnier and Team Coolmore. For Prado, Barbaro's win gave national recognition to what most of us already knew; he is one of the best riders in the game with nerves of steel and an uncanny ability to put his horse in a winning position race after race. For Michael Matz, he joins the recent trend of winning first-time Derby trainers and becomes the first trainer in 50 years to win the Derby off a five-week layoff. All I could think of was Frank Sinatra (or Sammie Davis Jr. or Paul Anka) singing "My Way." Yes, he did it his way with an unusual schedule of eight weeks between the Holy Bull (G3) and the Florida Derby (G1), and then five weeks until the Derby. Not only did it result in winning the Derby, but Matz has one of the freshest horses in memory for the rest of the campaign. Amazingly, Barbaro ran a new career-best BRIS Speed figure of 109 in a career that has not seen any regression. Every race has been either as good, or an improvement, over the last. For Gulfstream Park, their decision to move the Florida Derby from its traditional mid-March position on the calendar to five weeks before the Kentucky Derby doesn't look so stupid now. And for horse racing in 2006, even more trainers will try to have more time between races, resulting in fewer horses competing in all but the major races. There will come a day in the not-so-distant future that the Keeneland Fall meet in October could become irrelevant since most trainers want more time before the Breeders' Cup. Barbaro was not that hard to come up with as the 6-1 second choice. Bluegrass Cat was another story. I took my four top choices (Bob and John, Sweetnorthernsaint, Barbaro and Steppenwolfer) and boxed them in a five-horse trifecta box for a dollar. I needed another horse to complete the ticket and wanted someone at a price that might be ready to throw in a solid effort. I narrowed it down to Private Vow (Broken Vow) and Bluegrass Cat. Both have been disappointments this year but showed high talent last year when stretched out to two turns. As much as I like Dominguez, especially going long, I went with Private Vow thinking that he could improve in only his third start of the year and he showed a solid stakes win at Churchill last year going two turns. Dominguez gave Bluegrass Cat a perfect ride, keeping him out of trouble most of the way, and was a clear second at 30-1, keying boxcar mutuel payoffs even with the second choice winning the race. The trifecta that I blew came back $11,418 for $2, so excuse me if my exuberance over Barbaro's win was a tad muted. NBC's coverage of the Derby was a mixed bag. Yes, they did have an overhead blimp replay which is a fantastic way of tracking your horse's trip. And, the race was broadcast in high definition so at least the pictures were clear and crisp. But the soap opera theme was overplayed. As a hardcore fan and player, I don't expect to get the information that I would receive from a normal simulcast feed. But to be inundated with one human interest story after another without much focus on the horses themselves and what they have accomplished is terrible coverage. We hardly learned who these horses were and how they became fancied by the public. Instead of showing the various regions of the country and how those horses did leading up to the Derby, they spent most of the broadcast on the drama of the human participants. All great stories, but in 90 minutes they could have given us a lot more of the horses -- past and present. As a Monty Python fan, I expected them to roll out David Niven's refrigerator. If NBC wanted some real drama, host Bob Costas could have instigated some trash talking between outgoing Churchill Downs President Tom Meeker and Kentucky Governor Ernie Fletcher. After seeing the tension convention between them at the trophy presentation, it wouldn't have taken much. ***** So Barbaro won decisively and obviously we all indulge in the speculation of him winning the Triple Crown. As good as he looked, some pretty good horses -- Brother Derek, Sweetnorthernsaint and Bob and John -- had awful trips and merit another shot in a less bulky field. They should get their chance in the Preakness (G1). And it still remains to be seen if Barbaro can come back on short rest. All of his starts have had at least 30 days in between them and now he has to come back in two weeks. And while he certainly is rested and lightly raced this year, he might be the type of horse that needs time between races since he exerts himself so much. Barbaro does have high-knee action when he runs and hits the ground rather hard. Matz mapped out a perfect campaign for the first Saturday in May but now things get interesting with three races in five weeks. He certainly gives the impression that if he gets by the Preakness, the Belmont S. (G1) should be no problem with his strong sire-side pedigree.
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