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THREE-YEAR-OLD DIARY MAY 2, 2007 by James Scully For the fourth straight year, the $2 million Kentucky Derby (G1) will draw a full field of 20. We'll never again see a nine-horse field like in 1976 when Bold Forbes upset Honest Pleasure, and the 13-horse field in the 1997 edition, when Silver Charm defeated Captain Bodgit by a thrilling head, seems highly unusual nowadays. The Derby is the most demanding test in North American dirt racing, requiring young three-year-olds to travel 10 furlongs for the first time under a taxing 126 pounds, and it's the most popular race. Horseplayers will pour over a ton of information in search of a winner. Recent prep results, trends, pedigrees, connections, run styles and other intangibles are all important. I can take a quick look at the field and determine which five horses have earned the best BRIS Speed ratings (in alphabetical order): ANY GIVEN SATURDAY (Distorted Humor), CIRCULAR QUAY (Thunder Gulch), COWTOWN CAT (Distorted Humor), HARD SPUN (Danzig) and STREET SENSE (Street Cry [Ire]). These five have all earned a Speed rating of 105 or better this season. The next-best number in the field is a 103. If you're looking for five-horse exacta box ($20 for $1) as a saver, Speed figures provide an option. The attributes of the main contenders have been well-documented, but I'll take the contrarian approach and point out drawbacks of all 20 horses. Some of these comments will prove unfounded. ANY GIVEN SATURDAY has never won a graded stakes race, capturing only a listed event at Tampa Bay Downs, and he's earned only one triple-digit BRIS Speed rating this season (14 of the last 17 Derby winners have earned multiple triple-digit Speed ratings at three). Exits a retreating third in the Wood. BWANA BULL (Holy Bull) isn't fast enough, registering Speed ratings of 94, 93 and 93 in his last three starts. CIRCULAR QUAY has raced only twice this year, but more importantly, he's entering the Derby off a 56-day layoff. How can he be fit enough? Did some physical issue necessitate forgoing a logical final prep? Every Derby winner owns at least one start at 1 1/8 miles, but Circular Quay has never raced past 8 1/2 furlongs. His first start was a wash (swerved to avoid fallen jockey), and he wasn't tested when recording an easy score in the Louisiana Derby (G2). COWTOWN CAT earned a big number in the Illinois Derby (G2) (106), but that's his only decent figure this year. Set a slow, uncontested pace at Hawthorne that allowed him to easily hold off a group of questionable rivals. Faces completely different circumstances in the Derby. CURLIN (Smart Strike) never raced at two (as strong a negative trend in Kentucky Derby history). And he didn't just miss the deadline, making his career debut in February. That leaves him with only three career starts, which isn't enough experience. DOMINICAN (El Corredor) moves better over Polytrack, winning Blue Grass S. (G1), Rushaway S. and a maiden special weight event over synthetic tracks. On dirt, he's winless in four starts. Never earned a triple-digit Speed rating on any surface. GREAT HUNTER (Aptitude) has raced only twice this year and hails from California, which has been heavily maligned as being the weakest locale for Derby contenders. Didn't defeat the strongest competition in the Robert B. Lewis S. (G2) and was no factor in the Blue Grass after winning the Breeders' Futurity (G1) at Keeneland in October. Has he improved enough at three? Speed ratings (career-best is a 100) aren't encouraging. HARD SPUN worked fast at Churchill Downs, but he was motoring early (the first two eighths of a mile in :11) and slowing down late (next eighths in :11 2/5, :11 3/5 and :12 3/5, respectively). Is that a promising final work for the Derby? He's avoided quality competition this year and will enter the Derby off a lengthy six-week freshening after dominating the Lane's End S. (G2) on the front end. Jockey Mario Pino must find a way to settle him during the early stages on Saturday. IMAWILDANDCRAZYGUY (Wild Event) exits a pair of unplaced stakes finishes and hasn't recorded a triple-digit Speed rating this year. LIQUIDITY (Tiznow) exits a bad fourth in a slow prep and the maiden winner has been off form in his last two starts. His Speed ratings have tailed off since earning a 101 in his 2007 debut. NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ earned a 104 in the Champagne S. (G1) and 103 in the both the Holy Bull S. (G3) and a maiden special weight victory. His figures have been lower in three two-turn efforts, and he raced greenly in his first two appearances this year, receiving an equipment change before being severely tested by the unheralded Sightseeing (Pulpit) in the Wood Memorial (G1). SAM P. hasn't been a serious factor in three stakes appearances this year and has never earned a triple-digit Speed rating. SCAT DADDY (Johannesburg) worked in bar shoes at Keeneland on Sunday, leading to speculation that something could be up with his feet. We don't know whether Johannesburg's offspring will be effective at 10 furlongs. Scat Daddy exits a pair of hard-fought wins at Gulfstream Park, but he didn't run well when stretching out to two turns for the first time at Churchill Downs in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1). SEDGEFIELD (Smart Strike) is primarily a turf horse who surprisingly finished second in the Lane's End prior to recording a dull fourth in the grassy Transylvania S. (G3) last time. He'll make his dirt debut in the Derby. STORM IN MAY (Tiger Ridge) upset his rivals at 26-1 in the Sunshine Millions Dash S. at six furlongs earlier this year. He'll enter the Kentucky Derby with Speed ratings of 90, 89 and 86 in his last three outings. STORMELLO (Stormy Atlantic) tired badly in the Florida Derby (G1) and trainer Bill Currin says he's trained the chestnut colt to rate in Derby, which seems akin to teaching an old dog new tricks. He's raced only twice this year, and Stormello spit the bit pretty early last year when facing serious early pressure in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. STREET SENSE has raced only twice this year and lugged in during the stretch run of the Blue Grass, switching leads late in a runner-up placing. Received dream rail trips in his lone two stakes wins (Juvenile and Tampa Bay Derby [G3]), but he'll have to negotiate 19 rivals if he stays on the inside part of the track on Saturday. TEUFLESBERG (Johannesburg) raced at primarily shorter distances earlier this year and figures to be severely tested by the 1 1/4-mile distance. His lone triple-digit Speed rating came in wire-to-wire fashion in the one-mile Southwest S., but he'll won't get away with a similar trip in the Derby. TIAGO (Pleasant Tap) had broken his maiden via disqualification and finally hit the wire first when taking the Santa Anita Derby (G1), but that was a slowly run prep and the bay colt is too lightly raced to win with only four career starts. His half-brother Giacomo (50-1) didn't figure either, and Tiago will need an upset of that magnitude. ZANJERO (Cherokee Run) had never earned a triple-digit Speed rating or won a stakes race. Outlook Barbaro destroyed a couple of myths last year, winning off a five-week layoff with only two starts in the previous four months (excluding New Year's Day when he ran in a turf stakes). Despite the soft schedule, Barbaro had the benefit of a hard race in his final prep, the Florida Derby, where he narrowly defeated Sharp Humor following a protracted stretch battle. The gallant colt moved forward off that effort at Churchill Downs. I have a ton of respect for CURLIN's ability, but he's never been tested, winning all three starts by daylight. He might be able to dominate his Derby rivals at a shorter distance based on talent alone, but the 1 1/4-mile Derby will be a whole new ballgame. I'm unwilling to take a leap with inexperience. I'm squarely in the STREET SENSE corner. The juvenile champion likes Churchill Downs, posting a record victory in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, and he's trained forwardly over the track. Tuesday's final workout seems perfect, recording a slow opening three-eighths of a mile before flying home with a very fast finish, and Street Sense is a picture of beauty on the track. He's raced only twice in 2007, but those efforts -- a hard-fought win in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) and a narrow setback in the Blue Grass -- should provide a solid foundation for him to build upon on Saturday. The reason there's been a Breeders' Cup Juvenile "jinx" is because the previous winners haven't been any good at three. That fluke comes to an end this year. Street Sense will not be denied. I like ANY GIVEN SATURDAY to bounce back well for Todd Pletcher. He was being pointed toward the April 14 Blue Grass when his connections pulled a last-minute audible and sent him to New York a week earlier for the Wood, and I wasn't surprised to see him show up with a less-than-stellar performance. He ran a huge race against Street Sense in Tampa and has the tools to excel in the Derby. Doug O'Neill has been high on LIQUIDITY all year, and the colt is better than he's showed in his last two starts. Runner-up in both the Hollywood Futurity (G1) and Sham S. (G3), Liquidity could finally put it all together with a strong showing at long odds that nets a top three placing. Street Sense is my win pick, but I'll use Any Given Saturday and Liquidity in some multi-race wagers along with him. I'll also use GREAT HUNTER, SCAT DADDY and ZANJERO on the bottom of some exotics.
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