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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS JUNE 22, 2007 by Dick Powell Yes, it would be nice if we had a Triple Crown winner. It's hard to believe that the last one was Affirmed in 1978. And, yes, it would be nice if we could have a long-lasting rivalry that the general public could get into or have horses that become household names and race to at least the end of the four-year-old season. But, it would also be nice if we covered racing 12 months a year and taught the general public how exciting it is when a new star appears upon the scene. I follow New York racing more than any other circuit and there has been a severe shortage of juvenile races run this year. Usually, there would be a race for two-year-olds each week for fillies and colts. This year, they have been few and far between. Thus, a horse like THE ROUNDHOUSE (Fusaichi Pegasus) wound up making his career debut at Monmouth Park for Todd Pletcher. Out of the Grade 1 stakes-winning and producing dam Circle of Life (Belong to Me), The Roundhouse is a half-brother to Hopeful (G1) and Louisiana Derby (G2) winner Circular Quay (Thunder Gulch). And just like Circular Quay, who rallied from far back to break his maiden first time out last year at Churchill, The Roundhouse was far back after breaking behind the field in his five-furlong debut. The chart of the race has him only six lengths behind with a quarter-mile to run, but the replay shows that he was at least 10 lengths behind, if not more. Chris DeCarlo was asking him for run and not getting any positive response. As the field of seven turned for home, The Roundhouse had only one horse beat and with a furlong to go he was out of camera range. But, somehow, he found his best stride and closed with a furious rush. He swooped by the four horses in front of him with a hundred yards to go and drew off to an amazing 1 1/2-length win. And this over a main track at Monmouth that is notorious for favoring front runners. If you have the ability to go back and watch the 6TH race from Monmouth Park on June 15, please check it out. The Roundhouse's final time for five furlongs was :58.42 off a half in :46.13. He had to have run his last furlong in about 11 seconds. Racing in the silks of Michael Tabor, the same colors we saw win the Belmont S. (G1) with Rags to Riches (A.P. Indy), The Roundhouse will hopefully be up here for the Saratoga meet and point for the Hopeful like his half-brother did. Maybe the next major horse from the Coolmore gang will be named The Rich Get Richer. What's frustrating is that debut winners like The Roundhouse should be garnering headlines in our sport. Other sports do not have to have household names to gain media exposure. Fans sit around and watch the drafts of many professional sport leagues without knowing much about the players. We talk very little about our "rookies" and their pedigrees. If we did, at least when horses retire lightly-raced and prematurely, we could look forward to their offspring selling at auction and await their first foals to race. Most of this is due to the fact that the media covers the Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup and a few other big races and very little else. Press boxes are nearly empty during the week, and many future stars and their stories fall through the cracks. Potential racing fans are not reading about horses like The Roundhouse and they, and racing, are missing out. ---------- Lost in the coverage of the Belmont was the issue of the wind which was blowing quite hard from right to left. It meant that in long sprint races, the wind was aiding the horses more than it was hurting them. It also meant that Rags to Riches' final quarter mile of :23.83 was back into the wind and even better than first thought. And, the first half of the race -- 1:15.32 -- was even slower than it looked since they went into a headwind out of the gate, but that's when the field has the most energy so the headwind takes less of a toll. I read one account that said that the wind in the Belmont was irrelevant since it was a complete, two-turn race and the effect of the wind was neutralized. It's true that during the course of a two-turn race the headwind becomes a tailwind. But, the effect of the wind is a negative since it takes far more energy to run through it than it is a positive when it is at your back. In Track and Field, you can kiss goodbye any chance at a world record in the 400 meters or 400 meter hurdles -- both run at one, complete lap -- if it's a windy day. Fast times are generated on calm days or when a one-directional wind aids a one-directional race. If it aids the race too much -- a favoring wind faster than 2 meters per hour -- then a world record is denied and receives the notation of "wind aided." I've written this before and still wish that racing could provide wind speed, direction, a diagram of the track which shows NSEW directions and temperature for each race. Sometimes a horse that might not be running as fast as the others in the race might have had the misfortune of racing during adverse weather conditions compared to the others in the race. ---------- I love international racing and this week's races from Royal Ascot are as good as it gets. Group 1 races are run each day and the supporting cards have been terrific. Owners and trainers point their horses for Royal Ascot so you can expect that each runner has been trained for a peak effort. However, when you read the past performances for Royal Ascot, there is not the amount of handicapping information that we are used to in America. Yet, punters over there bet vast amounts of money without the data that we demand before we bet. Thus, the question, "How would you handicap a race without speed or performance figures?" In Europe, and the rest of the world, horseplayers rely on two main factors -- company and the going. Company is who you have been running against, how did they do coming into the race that you are handicapping and how did the horses you have been running against compete in later races? It's critical to know who you've been running around with, how they did before the race and how they did after the race. Follow international races and you will most likely read about a race's "form holding up." This means that the horses in the race have come back to run well. Last year's Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1) is a perfect example of a race whose form held up. The other main factor is the going, or the condition of the turf course. You not only want to know the form of the horse and who he/she had been running against but what was the track condition of those races? England has been in a drought for months and Royal Ascot has been run on ground listed as "good to firm." In American parlance, that is turf that we would list as "firm." In the first two days of racing, four course records have been set and some quality horses have turned in explicably-poor efforts due to the firm going. Horses that have run great at Ascot might have benefited from the firm ground and might not respond as well over ground with some give to it and horses that ran poorly might bounce back at long odds when they can get on softer ground. While we spend way too much time on quantitative analysis of speed and performance figures and their relationships to form, the rest of the world spends time on a qualitative analysis of subjective factors like company and going. I'm not saying which one is best, but I will tell you that the rest of the world bets far more money, per capita, than we do with a lot less information.
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