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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS AUGUST 10, 2007 by Dick Powell Horses wearing turquoise silks with a gold ball sash and "Z" on the back have been very successful at Saratoga this meet. Ahmed Zayat has been spending big bucks at the yearling and juvenile sales the past few years and now has some talented horses in the hands of some of the country's best trainers. Zayat had a big disagreement with Del Mar president Joe Harper two weeks ago about Polytrack. Essentially, Zayat said that the Polytrack was fine in the morning when there were cooler temperatures and only a few hours of sun, but by the time afternoon racing rolled around it changed character and became slower and more tiring. Harper, following the advice of Polytrack's installers, said he would not water it in the afternoon in order to keep it tight. Zayat bid Harper adieu and promptly shipped 25 horses to the East Coast with many going with Bob Baffert to Saratoga. Among the group was MAIMONIDES (Vindication), who Zayat paid $4.6 million for last year. Zayat's point was that he had paid large amounts of money for horses that were bred for speed and that Del Mar -- where Baffert is mired in a 2-for-28 slump -- is not conducive for that running style. I have no doubt that Zayat is right about Polytrack at Del Mar needing to be watered. I have done a lot of research on the subject and with the Del Mar climate, it makes sense. The warning that I have received from the manufacturers is that you do not want to have a heavy water track driving on it, but I think that could be solved with a long-enough boom that would enable the water track to stay on the far outside of the track and never driving over the area where the horses race. I know the manufacturers are very smart people that know a lot more about this than me, but I also know that they are the same people that sold this product on the basis that there would be very little kickback from the horses. Results have proven otherwise. With 19 horses suffering fatal injuries last year when racing on dirt and none so far this year as we near the halfway point of Del Mar, you would think that Zayat would want his very expensive horses to race on the safest possible racing surface. And if he were a user of the BRIS Ultimate Past Performances, he might have thought twice about leaving Del Mar. Despite all the protestations that you have heard from the media and some horsemen, Del Mar's Polytrack has been quite kind to front-running horses, especially in one-turn sprints. Here are the numbers that I have gleaned from the Track Bias Stats of the BRIS Ultimate Past Performances. Last year, when Del Mar raced over its traditional dirt main track, speed did very well. In 40 5 1/2-furlong races, 48 percent were won gate to wire, the speed bias was 72 percent and the winner's average beaten lengths at the first call was 1.6 lengths. For the first three weeks of the Del Mar meet over Polytrack, in 22 5 1/2-furlong races, 41 percent were won gate to wire, the speed bias was 77 percent and the winner's average beaten lengths at the first call was 1.2 lengths. This is virtually identical to last year and if the past performance did not have the all-weather symbol, you would think it was last year. At the popular six-furlong distance, the results were very similar. In 2006, from 93 races, 27 percent were won gate to wire, the speed bias was 62 percent and the winner's average beaten lengths at the first call was 2.5 lengths. In 2007, from 42 races, 24 percent won gate to wire, the speed bias was 74 percent and the winner's average beaten lengths at the first call was 1.9 lengths. Not by a lot, but speed is doing better going six furlongs at Del Mar this year than it did last year. At 6 1/2 furlongs last year, we saw 48 races run with 27 percent gate to wire, a speed bias of 69 percent and the winner's average beaten lengths at the first call being 2.2 lengths. This year, there have been 19 races run at 6 1/2 furlongs with 26 percent gate to wire, a speed bias of 68 percent and the winner's average beaten lengths at the first call being 1.7 lengths. For some reason, and maybe this is a tipping point, seven-furlong races have performed differently from all the other one-turn sprint distances. Last year, 21 races were run at seven furlongs with 19 percent won gate to wire, a speed bias of 52 percent and the winner's average beaten lengths at the first call was 3.3 lengths. This year, there have only been six races run at seven furlongs, none were won gate to wire, the speed bias was 17 percent and the winner's average beaten lengths at the first call was five lengths. Granted it's a small sample this year, but it might be the distance where Del Mar's Polytrack and its loose footing begins to work against speed. Still, if you add up the track bias statistics for all four sprint distances, there is no difference between last year's meet and 2007. That said, two turns is a very different story. In 2006, there were 41 races run at one mile with 27 percent won gate to wire, a speed bias of 58 percent and the winner's average beaten lengths at the first call was 2.3 lengths. In 2007, there have been 19 races run at one mile with 5 percent won gate to wire, a speed bias of 42 percent and the winner's average beaten lengths at the first call was 3.9 lengths -- much different than last year. Two-turn races run at 1 1/16 miles follow the same pattern. In 2006, there were 25 races run with 4 percent won going gate to wire, a speed bias of 64 percent and the winner's average beaten lengths at the first call was 3.4 lengths. In 2007, there have been nine races run with none going gate to wire, a speed bias of only 22 percent and the winner's average beaten lengths at the first call was 5.4 lengths. The numbers for 1 1/8-mile races this year are similar but very few were run at that distance last year. In short, one-turn sprints have shown no visible change in how speed fares at Del Mar this year for the most part. The seven-furlong races did show a change away from speed this year, but six races in three weeks is a very small sample so I wouldn't rush to judgment. Going two turns, the results are dramatic with this year's route races seeing fewer horses winning gate to wire, a much lower speed bias than last year and the winners coming from much farther back. As for Maimonides, he shipped east for Bob Baffert and showed up in Wednesday's 2ND race at Saratoga; a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight for juveniles run on Saratoga's beautifully brown dirt track. Bet down to 1-2 favoritism, the son of Vindication came into the paddock looking fabulous. Baffert was there for the saddling and I heard him instruct Rafael Bejarano "this horse can really run -- let him do what he wants." What Maimonides wanted to do was run and when the gate opened, he quickly shot to the lead. With a first quarter in :22.04 and the half in :45.37, he had every right to tire some in the lane, but he just kept pouring it on. The half-brother to Grade 1 winners El Corredor (Mr. Greeley) and Roman Ruler (Fusaichi Pegasus) cruised home an 11 1/2-length winner and stopped the teletimer in 1:04.41. After the race, Baffert said no plan had been devised yet, but the Hopeful S. (G1) would be logical if Maimonides comes out of the race well. Zayat was not through as his Z HUMOR (Distorted Humor) captured the other division of the juvenile maiden race, winning by 5 3/4 lengths in 1:05.40. Trained by Bill Mott, Z Humor became the eighth winner out of 19 starters at the meet for Zayat. Goodbye Del Mar! Flying at the finish to get second was Ready's Echo (More Than Ready), who resembled another Pletcher-trained juvenile, The Roundhouse (Fusaichi Pegasus), with his sudden late burst. This one will be severely overbet by anyone who saw him fly home on Wednesday.
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