by SCOTT SHAPIRO
With all of the last-second money dumping into pools it has become increasingly more difficult for a horseplayer to know what price he or she will get when the bell sounds. Wouldn’t it be great if you had access to the closing odds before you made your wagers?
I have written on my approach to all three Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pools on Brisnet, including the third one, which closed on Sunday. All three articles that included suggested wagers came well before betting commenced so I had zero knowledge of a colt’s pari-mutuel payoff when analyzing his chances of winning the Derby. I thought it might be interesting to try the same exercise, but do so after the pool was closed.
Here is how I would have attacked Pool 3 if I had access to both the closing odds and the results from this past weekend. Keep in mind that I already have a one unit investment on McKinzie at 12-to-1 in Future Pool 1 and likely will be tearing up my tickets on both Instilled Regard and Free Drop Billy from Future Pool 2.
The 2017 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner won his first start since the Grade 1 victory at Del Mar in the 32Red Patton Stakes on March 9 at Dundalk. The Scat Daddy colt’s trainer, Aidan O’Brien, will send the colt to the UAE Derby next and if he runs well the plan is to ship to Kentucky.
The Kentucky bred is not the likeliest to win the 2018 “Run for the Roses” by any stretch, but his talent is obvious and his price is fair. If I had known he would go off at final odds of 28-1 I would have included him in my Future Pool 3 wagers instead of Catholic Boy who closed at 21-1.
I recommended diving in for a slice of the son of Tiznow last week when he was listed at 30 to 1 on the morning line in Pool 3. At closing odds of 39-1 the D. Wayne Lukas trainee is a colt I still have interest in as a long shot contender for the first Saturday in May.
Sporting Chance’s third place effort in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes last month was a solid starting point for the $575,000 Keeneland September 2016 purchase, but he certainly needs to move forward next time out if he wants a legitimate shot a competing with the likes of McKinzie, Bolt d’Oro, Justify and Audible. His price though makes him worth a small investment a little over six weeks out.
Of all of the horses I do not have in my “portfolio” thus far, the New York-bred son of Into Mischief is the one I covet most. However, the Todd Pletcher trainee was listed at 8-to-1 on the morning line making it difficult to find value in adding him to what I am already sitting on.
However, recency bias along with strong performances from a few colts at Santa Anita Park this past weekend allowed Audible to go off at an overlaid 13 to 1 price.
It would not allow for much wiggle room when Future Pool 4 opens on April 6th, but at that price putting a unit on Audible is something I certainly would have done.
With just 52 days until the 2018 Kentucky Derby things are really heating up. The prep races continue this weekend with the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park and the Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park.
Best of luck!
Scott Shapiro provides Daily Selections full-card analysis with best bets for Brisnet.com. Follow him on Twitter @ScottShap34