May 27, 2024

OptixPLOT for Race 8 at Oaklawn Park on Apr. 16


A competitive allowance for the penultimate race on the card looks a decent betting affair given the full field of fillies and mares. The morning line favorite, #9 NONNA MADELINE, will make her Oaklawn debut in this spot coming in for Todd Pletcher. In addition to making her local debut, she will also make her first start around two turns as well. That is certainly something to keep in mind as she projects to be the favorite here and is unproven on at the distance. Outside of that she certainly figures as a contender given her current form, speed figures and class. She will have to prove her stamina as well as find a trip in here with a pace scenario that looks to be contentious from looking at the OptixPLOT. Given her run style and coming out of the shorter events it is likely she will have to contest from Quad I/II position and looks to have some company in that role as well as the 31 SpeedRate keeping the early pace honest.

The time and price could be there for #12 CALF MOON BAY, who is looking to rebound from her previous two starts at this 2020 Oaklawn meet. There is some upside off those races and worth noting her trainer Jerry Hollendorfer will bring her back with some changes (blinkers on and a rider change to Tyler Baze), as well as given her some time and training to regroup coming back to this allowance condition. She was the solid second choice in the wagering back on February 8th, however there is a strong case to be made that she should have been scratched that afternoon when she became very fractious in the gate and likely to have lost her race before it started — that is designated in OptixNOTES/GRADES with the EXExcuse and GATE keyword. She came back just under three weeks later and did not have the most ideal trip back on February 28th chasing wide from midpack before getting eased up out of the running. She does have to really prove she can compete at this level and in a large field, though there are those positives in terms of trainer intent and coming back at this level of competition. She has races that fit at this level both on class, speed figures (OptixFIG) and even in terms of trip capable based on her previous form at the Surface/Distance.

#2 GOODBYE EARL is another filly that could get overlooked in here and has current form and upside from her previous starts this meet. Since coming back from the layoff in February she has moved forward with each start and seemed to benefit from the conditioning. Trip (and her own doing with the slow starts, SLOG) and pace has been a factor in those races and projects to have a more favorable pace scenario this afternoon for her run style. Even with the SLOGs from this meet, TACTICs have also been less than ideal as she was asked to rate following the slow start and chase well off a slow rated early pace in each of those three starts. She can be a bit handier than her position as a Square from Quad IV with a faster early pace and is likely to find a faster and more contested early pace (“SunContention) than she has had this season which could be the difference maker.

OptixPLOT Race 8