Emily Gullikson analyzes the Oaklawn Park April 1 card and provides her OptixEQ analysis.
The “Sun” Contention will put #6 SOUPER CAPACITY and #8 CHEWY CHEWY GOOD to the pace and stamina test this afternoon with both sitting in Quad I above the Par Line for this route distance. The two hold only a mild speed figure (OptixFIG) advantage over the others in the field and recorded a B- OptixGRADE at this maiden claiming condition in their most recent starts, a grade just shy of a “winning” type effort that would require a move forward from both here.
#1 SISTEROFTHEMOON has some upside of the Garcia entry returning from the layoff this afternoon and keying off her Turfway Park debut. She was given a test first out at the route distance and still earned a 64 OptixFIG and the IMPROVE Keyword that suggest contender potential here. She returns here freshened after the GATE incident sprinting in her second start on Jan. 28, a race that produced two next-out winners with all around numbers that would stack up with today’s race par.
#2 WILD ESCAPE with some “dirty” form could get overlooked this afternoon and from a class standpoint given a real chance to clear this condition. The class drop to maiden claiming moved her forward at Remington Park to close out 2020 with that competitive (B- OptixGRADE) show finish given the trip on Dec. 21. The sprint (six-furlong) distance had her compromised behind a pacesetting winner here and Jan. 29 showing run making a MOVE and the IMPROVE visuals. She returned from that race to the preferred route distance on Feb. 28, though the $40k maiden claiming class level and higher 77-71 OptixFIGRANGE had her overmatched before the race was run. She still gave an honest effort, C+ OptixGRADE, and less than ideal scenario coming out on the track WARM with no favors following the slow start (SLOG) and extra-wide (X_WIDE) trip that followed. Trainer Lynn Chleborad will make the appropriate class change here as well as a positive rider change with Vasquez taking over today.
#1 VERY SPICY was given a look back on March 4 here on Circles and Squares making her second start off a sneaky run on debut, a trip shown in the Past 3 Runlines. Off that improved effort, connections had little risk going back to the Special Weight division on March 21. There is upside off that trip, a less-than-favorable ride (TACTIC-) and racing against (X_BIAS) the track profile. Fires will bring her back to the maiden claiming class level this afternoon, a spot where she is best suited for her abilities. Very Spicy will have to use that class and experience to account for the change in distance, an unknown for many in this field shown as Diamonds on Surface/Distance, going two-turns for the first time.