The PlotFit is rated “Red” and clear with the major changes from Standard (current form) to Surface/Distance. The “Red” PlotFit will be kept in mind with this interesting race dynamic with “Snowflake” Contention and moderate 29 SpeedRate when going through the field horse-by-horse.
#1 STARSPANGEDXPRESS does not have a knock as a Quad I Square and should be in position to run his race on the front end. Some regression could kick in based on the May 17th race where he ran a OptixFIG top of 90 and did so with a LONE lead and with the race FLOW. The other runners on Standard should not allow for a “lone” trip on the front end and must consider that trip and regression possible as the potential favorite stepping up (N3 condition) in class.
#2 PURPLE SHIRT will make his third start of the form cycle, and showing improvement from the Past 3 Runlines in OptixGRADES and OptixFIG coming into this race, looks to be sitting on a peak effort. The race shape could set up for a Quad IV runner from the Standard visuals, and not necessarily compromised on trip.
#3 UNBRIDLED VICTOR has the challenges as he makes his route debut (Diamond Surface/Distance) as well as his current form keying off the “Red” Keywords, HARD/REGRESS? in his most recent start.
#4 SUDDEN SHIFT has the dramatic shift on the Plot moving from Quad I Standard to Quad IV Surface/Distance, but there are reasons for that change. His only route races were run last year, his juvenile season. It would be expected, based on his current form (Standard), for him to race forwardly placed today and part of that early contention. He holds overall upside from his races this season, though, and must show that on the track as again he will be facing older.
#5 CODE OF WAR is below in every category; he lacks a pace (Plot) advantage as a Quad III Circle, a speed figure edge with OptixFIG well below RANGE, his class (C OptixGRADE) is well below for this allowance level without any indicators (OptixNOTES) of a form reversal.
#6 EMPIRE’S SCORE has some positives with his races this season, and is capable to work a trip even with the changes on OptixPLOT. Going back to last season, he was able to compete at the route distance from on the pace, breaking his maiden as the BOS (Best of the Speed), and showed competitive races. His OptixFIG is on par with a tracking trip. Class will be the biggest question for him, needing to improve off this races at this allowance level. Form cycle will also be considered as he could have hit the peak making his third start of the cycle on June 9th. And he does have the quick turnaround today after racing just last week.
#7 FORWHOMTHEBELLTOLL will make his third start of the form cycle, and has positive indications of a move forward based on his return races in May. He should offer value as a contender, as those 2021 races do not necessarily “jump off the page” especially when looking at standard past performances. Upside can be shown on his Past 3 Runlines with OptixNOTES and Projections. The sprint on May 11th was a good PREP after 195-days off, and the added conditioning running on the turf wheeling back in just nine-days could signal a move forward returning to the DIRT. This progressive pattern moved him forward last season, and he recorded races in RANGE for this allowance level in 2020.