RACE 6 – SHELBY COUNTY STAKES:
The PlotFit is rated “yellow” and noted with some more subtle changes from Standard to Surface/Distance. The “Sun” Contention and lower SpeedRate come into play for the race shape and assessing #3 EXPECT INDY, one that has the more dramatic shifts on the Plot. This race run at the six-furlong sprint, the Surface/Distance Plot position in Q4 will considered for her trip from off the pace. While the Contention should be honest, she might not have the early pace (SpeedRate) required for her late run. The 145-day layoff should also be considered in terms of value this afternoon.
#4 SHY MONEY can be upgraded with that SpeedRate positioned in Quad I. While she is a Circle, she has enough tactical first call speed (left of the plot) and second call speed (top to bottom) to have a more subtle pace advantage. #2 HUNGARIAN PRINCESS held a massive pace advantage on May 19 in the Swifty Sired Fillies S. and while positioned well on the Plot today, does not hold as strong of an edge especially as she will step up to face older rivals for the first time.
#7 APRIL’S NO FOOL also figures to find a favorable trip based on her position with tactical speed in Quad I/III. She will be tested here for class even as her OptixFIG sit in RANGE. #8 FIREBALL BABY has the class (OptixGRADE) to compete at this statebred stakes level. The layoff and sprint distance could signal a prep for her coming back this afternoon, though does fit on those other factors.
#6 PRETTY ASSETS is worth a mention this afternoon as she will look to defend her title winning this race last year. She comes into this race in form and improving coming into this race as shown in the Past 3 Runlines. Trip will be the hurdle here with her running style. She had the ideal pace setup last year with the very fast early pace dynamic, the race flow to close into. As shown with the Large Square in Quad IV, she will be running on late though could be left with too much to do.
RACE 8 – WILLIAM HENRY HARRISON STAKES:
This race could be a match race between the top two finishers in this event last year, #2 DOUBLE TUFF and #5 THATSWHATITHOUGHT. Both runners looks to hold a class (OptixGRADE) and speed (OptixFIG) edge over the field and look strong on the Plot as dominant Squares in Quad I. Both runners will be returning from the layoff today to make their seasonal debut and some positive intent by their connections to point to this race. The layoff with Double Tuff could be concerning as he is an older horse starting off his eight-year-old season and those layoffs can become harder to return to form off of.
Thatswhatithought also coming back from the layoff with age on his side of the two starting off his five-year-old campaign and overall offers value as a contender this afternoon. He has been able to run and win off the layoff in the past and holds a steady progressive workout pattern coming into this race. Pace could give Thatswhatithought an advantage here as well based on his run style and position on the Plot. He should be able to get out in front of Double Tuff to the first call and both runners as Squares (finishing ability) Thatswhatithought could be double tough to run down. The trip on the front end for Thatswhatithough could be even easier if rival #6 SKY JUDGE (Quad I Circle) picks Race 4 to run in as he is cross-entered on today’s card.
#7 REDSKIESATNIGHT is worth a mention and could be one to follow as he starts his season this afternoon for Brad Cox. The sprint distance today could signal a prep for a route later this season keying off that two-turn distance from each of his races to date. In terms of class and speed figures, Redskiesatnight fits with today’s group and has the upside over the others in this field. The others in this group have come up short at the statebred stakes level in the past and look similar this afternoon needing their best efforts to pick up a minor award and tough to separate from one another based on form (Past 3 Runlines) as well as Plot position.