July 14, 2024

Oaklawn Park Circles & Squares Analysis for April 22

OptixEQ Circles and Squares
OptixEQ Circles and Squares


Looking at OptixPLOT, #5 SIMONA’S CHOICE sitting in Quad I could hold a pace advantage with the “Snowflake” Contention and lower SpeedRate. That said, she is not a typical front running type shown on OptixRPM as a “P” RunStyle. That change could work against her especially should the Quad III runners, #3 RED LINGERIE, #7 BEYOND BROWN and even #6 LADY GUSTO challenge the first call (furthest left) as suggested on the Plot.

Tracking off that group there is little separation from the Quad II group, which includes the 9-5 morning line favorite, #1 FLASHY BIZ. While capable she does not hold any edge over the others to justify the shorter price. That could create some value on the other two, #2 HOPING FOR A RING and #4 BEAUTY DAY. Both of these runners will race here exiting the N3L claiming races, a higher level condition than Flashy Biz as she just recently cleared the N2L condition with a favorable FREE trip on April 3rd. In terms of speed (OptixFIG) there is also not much separating this set overall, though some upside could be projected on Hoping for a Ring. This lightly raced four-year-old filly already holds a win over this course and distance and could move forward to compete, showing up with positive intent going out first off the claim for Coty Rosin.


Without any other piece of handicapping information, from first glance at the OptixPLOT, it would be difficult to pick out the race favorite or the horse to beat. That suggests this is a competitive race and there is no strong edge for #5 NORTHERN WOODS as a Large Quad I Circle; or #4 HOLDING PATTERN as a Quad IV Square in a lower SpeedRate scenario. That SpeedRate and even the “Sun” Contention could change by post time as #13 J’S LITTLE MAN (Quad I Square) and #14 MAX BET (Quad I/II) are currently sitting on the also-eligible list.

A lighter pace scenario could assist the Quad I Runners, #9 FORSAKEN and #10 MY LITTLE TIPSY, however both are Circles and above the Par Line with a lack of finish represented both by the Circle as well as the NO_FINISH Keywords in the Past 3 Runlines. Those factors could impact their chance to win especially gaining pace pressure from #12 LUCKY BREAK shown In a similar position on the Plot and with a Larger (bigger the Circle, the less finish) Circle and OptixFIG below today’s OptixFIGRANGE/OFR.  

#6 ONEIGHTHUNDREDCASH could sneak under the radar in this race and could find the right trip with that lower Contention and SpeedRate, especially on Surface/Distance. His maiden win here back on January 22nd earned a 78 OptixFIG, a number within the OFR to compete. He holds further upside as he makes his second start of this current form cycle finding the class DROP as projected in OptixNOTES from racing at a higher level Optional Claiming race on March 18th.

#8 MR. COUGAR could also find a favorable scenario with a stalking trip tracking as a Square in Quad II. His current form cycle shows improvement race-to-race with the progression in OptixGRADES shown in the Past 3 Runlines. #2 SUPER GEEK could also find himself better suited to today’s conditions receiving the required class relief as he shifts from the higher level Optional Claiming events (with higher OFR) to race here at the claiming level for the first time this season. 


#12 DRAG MALIBU was given a Circles and Squares look on April 9th returning to the maiden claiming level where he earned a B OptixGRADE on January 16th. His C OptixGRADE effort in that event just 13-days ago was disappointing though will have another look today at a price based on his OptixPLOT position. He could present a subtle upgrade on Standard as a Square, a change from April 9th as a Circle on both Standard and Surface/Distance Plot.

#10 POPSTER also earned a B OptixGRADE with a 78 OptixFIG under similar maiden claiming conditions back on January 9th. He has been given a slight 48-day freshening for this race showing some positive intent in his second start off the claim for Genaro Garcia. #7 WESLEYAN also sits in a favorable Quad I position on both Standard and Surface/Distance despite the subtle changes on the Plot. He can be upgraded further according to OptixNOTES with the DROP Projection on March 25th and returns with that class change along with the 73 OptixFIG stacking up in today’s OFR.