October 6, 2022

Oaklawn Park Circles & Squares Analysis for April 29

OptixEQ Circles and Squares
OptixEQ Circles and Squares

RACE 3:

A value case can be made for #6 RIVER REDEMPTION in this claiming race. As far as the Plot his Square in this “Red” PlotFit is similar to the projected morning line favorites capable of finding the right trip in this race shape. He will find some class relief (DROP?) exiting the higher level claiming race on March 12. For that event he was wheeling back in just nine days and he has been given 33 days rest coming into this event by Genaro Garcia.

#5 STAYIN’ OUT LATE has the competitive numbers going back to 2020 and from early 2021 that make him a player in this race. However, his recency includes excessive layoff lines and lacking current competitive form. This is a significant class change as he will start for a claiming tag for the first time in his career. That change comes in this second start off the layoff and for this season, where some reservations are also necessary in terms of intent for this race. Some upside could be projected off the March 19 race where he broke slow (SLOG) and was not asked (NO_PUSH) for run. Still there is a gamble today that he will run back to that prior form and as projected by the 5-2 morning line, will be taking a shorter price to find out.

Outside of the 76-day layoff, #7 MOTION PICTURE does not have any knocks landing in this spot first off the claim for Robertino Diodoro. He will run here for the $25k tag following the claim for $40k back in February and following a scratch out of a $50k claiming race back on March 18. His Large Square is tough to ignore on the Plot to suggest his RunStyle can find a trip in this dynamic. His numbers stack up for today’s OptixFIGRANGE (OFR) – OptixFIG which sits right in line with River Redemption.

RACE 4:

With some creativity and expected value, #5 HEATED ARGUMENT could hold a pace advantage in a race with upside that is not present on the Plot. Going back to her races here last spring, she showed legit early sprint speed racing up close to fast paces and recorded OptixFIG that stack up in Range for today’s race. She returned from the 233-day layoff Dec. 5, the first part of the meet, and showed a lot of early speed (DUEL, X_FLOW) clearing from the others in the field. That spirited pace set up the race to slow late and benefit today’s rival #1 LADY ASTRID, closing from off the pace for a 60-1 upset win. Tactically, Heated Argument has not been allowed to show her early speed in the two other sprint races this season and will return today with Elvin Gonzalez, the rider from back on Dec. 5.

Heated Argument is just one of two EP RunStyle horses in this field, sharing that role with #4 MOCHA KISS. She is capable though common, as she has been light on class for this allowance level this season with the string of B- OptixGRADES. In terms of pace, she was able to DUEL on March 27 under a Very Slow (VS O4S) opening half-mile (similar for #3 OOCHIE), and that scenario is less likely with Heated Argument in the race.

The Dec. 5 race is worth keying off as #6 EURO ME was an also-ran in that race, finishing fourth with the race FLOW. Euro Me was 22.6-1 in that race, a big shift from the projected 2-1 morning line today. By contrast, Heated Argument was the 3.1-1 co-second choice by the public. Euro Me could find a favorable trip stalking trip tracking from Quad II off the Quad I Circles and is in live hands, claimed by Steve Asmussen last out and making her first start for this barn here. The main concern for her is fair odds as she is expected to fall into the underlay category. #8 TAPIT RIGHT is capable of sitting a similar stalking trip to Euro Me and should offer closer to fair odds between the two. As shown on Standard (current form) Tapit Right could have the first run with finishing ability (Square) on rivals #2 SULWE and #7 MY DAMS ATITUDE