July 22, 2024

Oaklawn Park Circles & Squares Analysis for May 8

OptixEQ Circles and Squares
OptixEQ Circles and Squares


#11 MAMMOTH SPRING could hold as the controlling speed in this race and the pace advantage over rival and morning line favorite, #8 AUX ARCS. Looking at the Plot, Mammoth Spring has the first call (furthest left) advantage and has finishing ability (Square) to hold position in the late stages. In addition, the lack of “red” in his Past 3 Runlines is encouraging in terms of form and is a contrast to Aux Arcs.

#5 WARNING LABEL and #9 LOU’S ARROW hold OptixFIG on par, the OptixFIGRANGE (OFR), and will look for a stalking trip tracking the first flight and could grind along for a share. #10 HIGHTAIL COWBOY also holds a favorable Quad I Square position, though lacks value in his role as the second choice on the morning line with OptixFIG on the lower end of RANGE. Value in that case lands on #4 POINT BLANK, one that has recorded a similar OptixFIG to Hightail Cowboy back on March 13. Point Blank backed up that effort March 31 with a Better Than Looked (BTL Keyword) effort and projects a move forward today returning to his preferred sprint distance.


#9 LUCK OF THE DRAW will return to Oaklawn Park looking for a second win where he could find a pace scenario similar to the set up on Dec. 11. The intention here could also be similar as Robertino Diodoro entered #3 PALACE COUP on Dec. 11 and was part of the contested early pace for Luck of the Draw to close into. That dynamic is in play once again with the Quad I Contention, including Palace Coup as a Circle, with Luck of the Draw looking to stalk-and-pounce as a Quad II Square.  

#8 GO WEST has the Large Quad III Square based on some higher OptixFIG sprint races this season as well as his 97 OptixFIG maiden win here on March 25. His PERFECT trip assisted him to that win and for the distance as he was just able to hold while in a drive and drifting (NO_LINE) in the lane. #7 SHOTSKI is also shown as a Large Square on Standard (current form); however, he is downgraded on Surface/Distance shifting to a Circle. He has shown some distance limitations in the past and stretching back out around two-turns today, jockey Gabriel Saez, could be more aggressive and take part in that Contentious “Sun” early pace.


The “Red” PlotFit suggests an unreliable pace scenario, though with the “Fire” Contention and higher 50 SpeedRate, morning line favorite #5 LONG WEEKEND could have his hands full trying to work a trip on the lead. He has first call (furthest left) speed, early speed that is shared with #6 HOME BASE and #8 ROYAL DAAHER. Those two are both Circles and lack the finishing ability of Long Weekend as a Square; however, they have the second call (Quad I/y-axis) speed that could push Long Weekend into quicker fractions, taking away from some of his finishing (Square) ability. The presence of #3 SEVEN NATION ARMY and #7 HEART RHYTHM above the Par Line should play a role in the faster nature of the race.

#4 JALEN JOURNEY as a Quad I/II Square could have the advantage of that first flight given his position above the Par Line and Large Square. This will be his second start off the layoff and he is capable of moving forward with the fitness and conditioning (WIDE) with the return race and added works through April. Should the early pace heat up, stablemate #1 MACRON can continue his winning ways closing from Quad IV and the edge (bigger Square) with the stronger late kick over #2 LYKAN.