Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

DECEMBER 24, 2009

by Dick Powell

Santa Anita finishes up its opening day card on Saturday with three fantastic

races -- two Grade 1 stakes and a maiden special weight that should make a great

Pick 3 to play.

The La Brea S. (G1) will be run as race 8 for three-year-old fillies going

seven furlongs on the main track. At the recently-concluded Oak Tree meet at

Santa Anita, speed did very well going seven furlongs on the Pro-Ride, but last

year's numbers were pretty even. A dozen fillies have entered and there is the

usual assortment of sprinters, turnbacks and turf-to-synthetic runners.

GABBY'S GOLDEN GAL (Medaglia d'Oro) won the Acorn S. (G1) on dirt going a

mile two starts back and returns to the races off a 175-day layoff for Bob

Baffert. She broke her maiden last February at Santa Anita going six furlongs,

so she can handle synthetics. Mike Smith rides her for the first time which may

be an indicator of how fit she is since Garrett Gomez, who you would think would

ride for Baffert here, takes the mount on Philadeplphia Park shipper AMAZED BY

GRACE (Bowman's Band).

Amazed by Grace is owned by West Point Thoroughbreds, but this $35,000

yearling purchase has taken an obscure route to a Grade 1. She has raced

exclusively at Philadelphia Park and Charles Town, and has won her last five

races in a row. Trained by the always dangerous Guadalupe Preciado, she has

excellent early speed which Gomez will have to use with eight horses drawn to

her outside. She's never been farther than six furlongs and has never tried

synthetics, but shows two solid workouts over it here.

Patrick Biancone sends out an interesting runner in ROSE DIAMOND (Ire) (Daylami

[Ire]). Group 3-placed in England, she made her American debut a winning one in

a downhill sprint here on the turf with Joe Talamo aboard. She came back and ran

evenly at Hollywood in a six-furlong turf sprint that had little pace. In the La

Brea, she draws outside and there should be more than enough pace to set her up

for a big, late run. PINKARELLA (Malibu Moon) beat older fillies and mares last

out in fast time and takes a big move up in class for Doug O'Neill.

Race 9 is the Malibu S. (G1) which drew 13 sophomores going seven furlongs on

the main track. Many in here are going from turf-to-synthetic or long-to-short,

and there aren't many that you would call a true sprinter. SMART BID (Smart

Strike) has a win at the course and distance in the Damascus S. last out in fast

time for Graham Motion. He'll be making his second start off a long layoff and

could still be improving.

Bob Baffert sends out a pair of contenders in MISREMEMBERED (Candy Ride

[Arg]) and MYTHICAL POWER (Congaree). The former won the Swaps S. (G2) this

summer going nine furlongs and just missed in the Clark H. (G2) last out at

Churchill Downs against a deep field going long. He turns back in distance and

will have to keep from getting shuffled back from post 1. The latter returns off

a 231-day layoff after winning the Lone Star Derby (G3) last out going two turns

and picks up the red-hot Joel Rosario in the irons.

PAPA CLEM (Smart Strike) turns back in distance after winning the Arkansas

Derby (G2) last spring, but he did break his maiden here last year going a mile

in good time and has enough speed to keep up early. CORONET OF A BARON (Pure

Prize) was a good two-year-old when just missing in the Del Mar Futurity (G1).

He had a good win here two races back then lost all chance last out when he

broke slow from post 1 at today's distance.

The finale on the Santa Anita opening day card is a maiden special weight

going 6 1/2 furlongs with eight of the eleven entrants being first time

starters. What makes this race so tough is all three runners with race

experience ran well enough to win here. ZIGGY'S STARDUST (Maria's Mon) rallied

for fourth after being bumped at the start. NEXTDOORNEIGHBOR (Lido Palace [Chi])

was a good second going seven furlongs first time out and has trained well since

then. And LEOTHELION (Lion Heart) missed by a length in his career debut going

six furlongs for Mike Puype, who shows a flat-bet profit and a 22 percent strike

rate with his second time starters.

None of the eight firsters can be dismissed either as they all have either

pedigree or trainer angles to support their chances. Bob Baffert sends out

CONCORD POINT (Tapit) off a series of strong workouts here. Baffert's win

percentage with firsters has risen to 18 percent and Tapit can produce winning

debut runners.

VICTORY WITH HONOR (Tiznow) hasn't been working very fast for Eoin Harty, but

he has a pedigree that suggests first-out success being by a stakes-winning dam

plus he gets Garrett Gomez. Humberto Ascanio sends out AD INFINITUM (Storm Cat)

for Juddmonte off a steady diet of five-furlong works and a half-mile tightener

on Sunday. His dam is ETOILE MONTANTE (Miswaki) who beat males in the Prix de la

Foret (Fr-G1) and then came over here and won two graded stakes for Bobby

Frankel on the turf.

BIG MAN HAS A SIGN (Petionville) could be a toss since his trainer/pedigree

angle with firsters is weak, but his dam is a three-quarter sister to Indian

Charlie. SCREAMING DESTINY (Street Cry [Ire]) is a half-brother to two stakes

winners. LET GO INDIAN (Indian Charlie) has a speedy pedigree, and while trainer

Dan Hendricks only wins with 9 percent of his firsters, he shows a flat-bet

profit with them.

MIKEYMIKE (Grand Reward) is another firster from Canani that might be worth

playing next time. IMPERIAL PRIDE (Limehouse) is by a sire that produced 16

percent first-out winners in his first crop but trainer Bob Hess Jr. only wins

with 6 percent of them.

My strategy for the late Pick 3 on Saturday at Santa Anita will be to spread

out just enough to include contenders at a price. In race 8, I'll go with

Gabby's Golden Gal, Amazed by Grace and Pinkarella. In race nine, I'll spread

out with Smart Bid, Misremembered, Mythical Power and Cornonet of a Baron. Papa

Clem will probably be the favorite and we'll try to beat him. In the finale,

Leothelion should improve the most with a race under his belt and a better post

and I have a sneaking suspicion that Canani has Big Man Has a Sign cranked up

for a big effort.