December 4, 2020

Tiz the Law, Gamine favored in latest round of Kentucky Derby, Oaks future pools

Future Wager

As the 2020 Kentucky Derby picture continues to clarify, bettors have settled on a clear favorite for the postponed renewal of the Run for the Roses.

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 6 closed on Sunday with Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Tiz the Law favored at 5-2. Owned by Sackatoga Stable and trained by Barclay Tagg, the popular three-time Grade 1 winner has been the first or second individual betting choice in all six future wager pools, a testament to the talent and durability Tiz the Law his displayed since his debut last August.

In Pool 6, every other wagering interest offered odds at least twice as high as Tiz the Law, with Honor A. P.runaway winner of the Santa Anita Derby (G1)—the second choice at 6-1. His form received a boost over the weekend when Santa Anita Derby runner-up Authentic returned to win the Haskell (G1), but Honor A. P.’s odds nevertheless held steady in the wagering compared to Pool 5.

Authentic settled at 9-1, not far behind his Bob Baffert-trained stablemate Uncle Chuck (6-1), undefeated winner of the Los Alamitos Derby (G3). Recent Blue Grass (G2) winner Art Collector was the only other runner to close at single-digit odds, with bettors backing the son of Bernardini to 8-1.

The popularity of the top betting choices prompted several horses to close at 90-1 or higher, namely Attachment Rate (99-1), Major Fed (90-1), Modernist (96-1), Rushie (99-1), and South Bend (99-1). In between the favorites and extreme longshots, Cezanne (18-1), Dean Martini (37-1), Dr Post (24-1), Enforceable (38-1), King Guillermo (25-1), Max Player (25-1), Mystic Guide (50-1), Ny Traffic (19-1), Pneumatic (87-1), Shared Sense (42-1), Storm the Court (88-1), Thousand Words (65-1), All Other 3-Year-Old Fillies (52-1), and All Other 3-Year-Old Males (14-1) rounded out the list of wagering options.

KDFW Pool 6 Horse Name ODDS Gross Win Pool $2 Payoff
1 Art Collector 8-1 $10,890.56 $19.00
2 Attachment Rate 99-1 $978.92 $212.40
3 Authentic 9-1 $9,653.02 $21.40
4 Cezanne 18-1 $5,325.74 $39.00
5 Dean Martini 37-1 $2,711.28 $76.60
6 Dr Post 24-1 $4,001.20 $51.80
7 Enforceable 38-1 $2,639.90 $78.60
8 Honor A. P. 6-1 $14,735.92 $14.00
9 King Guillermo 25-1 $3,896.34 $53.20
10 Major Fed 90-1 $1,139.84 $182.40
11 Max Player 25-1 $3,925.04 $52.80
12 Modernist 96-1 $1,066.54 $194.80
13 Mystic Guide 50-1 $2,018.06 $103.00
14 Ny Traffic 19-1 $5,157.32 $40.20
15 Pneumatic 87-1 $1,175.66 $176.80
16 Rushie 99-1 $728.44 $285.40
17 Shared Sense 42-1 $2,414.98 $86.00
18 South Bend 99-1 $963.76 $215.60
19 Storm the Court 88-1 $1,159.38 $179.20
20 Thousand Words 65-1 $1,573.84 $132.20
21 Tiz the Law 5-2 $28,273.64 $7.20
22 Uncle Chuck 6-1 $13,110.08 $15.80
23 All Other 3 Year Old Fillies 52-1 $1,926.14 $107.80
24 All Other 3 Year Olds 14-1 $6,560.66 $31.60

Bettors were even more decisive with their approach to Kentucky Oaks Future Wager Pool 2, which likewise closed on Sunday. Record-shattering Acorn (G1) winner Gamine settled as the 2-1 favorite with Blue Grass runner-up Swiss Skydiver close behind at 9-2, while none of the 22 other wagering interests closed at single-digit odds.

Speech, who set a track record winning the Ashland (G1), came closest at 10-1, followed by Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) victor Paris Lights (14-1) and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) runner-up Donna Veloce (14-1). The latter recently resumed training after spending two months on the sidelines and is engaged in a race against the clock to return in time for the Kentucky Oaks.

Completing the field were Altaf (17-1), Bayerness (91-1), Bonny South (27-1), Dream Marie (92-1), Envoutante (72-1), Finite (24-1), Harvey’s Lil Goil (24-1), Impeccable Style (99-1), Mundaye Call (37-1), Pleasant Orb (78-1), Project Whiskey (97-1), Queen of God (99-1), Shedaresthedevil (19-1), Spice Is Nice (21-1), Tempers Rising (99-1), Tonalist’s Shape (19-1), Venetian Harbor (27-1), Water White (99-1), and All Other 3-Year-Old Fillies (22-1).

KOFW Pool 2 Horse Name ODDS Gross Win Pool $2 Payoff
1 Altaf 17-1 $1,570.90 $37.00
2 Bayerness 91-1 $314.92 $185.20
3 Bonny South 27-1 $1,027.92 $56.60
4 Donna Veloce 14-1 $1,856.08 $31.40
5 Dream Marie 92-1 $313.40 $186.20
6 Envoutante 72-1 $396.18 $147.20
7 Finite 24-1 $1,141.24 $51.00
8 Gamine 2-1 $9,404.78 $6.20
9 Harvey’s Lil Goil 24-1 $1,134.82 $51.40
10 Impeccable Style 99-1 $181.96 $320.80
11 Mundaye Call 37-1 $756.48 $77.00
12 Paris Lights 14-1 $1,873.04 $31.00
13 Pleasant Orb 78-1 $369.10 $158.00
14 Project Whiskey 97-1 $295.44 $197.60
15 Queen of God 99-1 $228.40 $255.60
16 Shedaresthedevil 19-1 $1,438.40 $40.40
17 Speech 10-1 $2,440.22 $23.80
18 Spice Is Nice 21-1 $1,294.98 $45.00
19 Swiss Skydiver 9-2 $5,161.28 $11.20
20 Tempers Rising 99-1 $164.96 $353.80
21 Tonalist’s Shape 19-1 $1,454.92 $40.00
22 Venetian Harbor 27-1 $1,041.44 $56.00
23 Water White 99-1 $270.62 $215.60
24 All Other Three Year Old Fillies 22-1 $1,251.16 $46.60

Bettors wagered $191,345.82 in Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 6 and $54,896.74 in Kentucky Oaks Future Wager Pool 2. For more on will-pays and exacta probables, see the Future Wager page on kentuckyderby.com.

The seventh and final Derby Future Wager Pool will run Aug. 7-9.