Handicapping Feature

HANDICAPPING FEATURE

MARCH 27, 2008

Software Handicapping -- All Weather Surface Handicapping Tools

by Gary Hall

Handicapping races run on the new all weather ("synthetic") tracks has become

more complex and, at times, even confusing. Some handicappers complain about the

difficulty and stop playing those tracks. Other handicappers continue to play

the tracks, but without adjusting their handicapping methods find it difficult

to achieve profitable play. But, some handicappers recognize this added

complexity "opens the door" to a rare opportunity for potential financial gain.

These players are typically investigative and analytical and they recognize

that, if they can "crack the code" of all weather surface racing, they will have

a significant "edge" over other horseplayers who play these races using past

"real dirt" considerations.

The question then is, how to go about "cracking the code" of handicapping all

weather surface races? And, the answer is ALL-Ways handicapping software, which

is available free of charge from BRIS. Read on to learn more about the unique

capabilities in ALL-Ways that have proven to be of significant help for

handicapping all weather surface races. This includes: 1) extensive analysis

capabilities; 2) unique handicapping information; and 3) special handicapping

tools.

About All Weather Surface Racing: Currently, eight major tracks in North

America have changed from "real dirt" to an all weather surface. They are

Arlington Park, Del Mar, Golden Gate Fields, Hollywood Park, Keeneland, Santa

Anita, Turfway Park and Woodbine. There are currently three different synthetic

track brand names, specifically Polytrack, Cushion Track and Tapeta.

Conventional wisdom says that all weather surfaces tracks exhibit biases that

are much kinder to horses lacking early speed, that diminish post position bias

and diminish the influence of changing weather conditions. Much of this

conventional wisdom is well founded, but way too much of a generalization to

follow for profitable play. The three different types of synthetic surfaces have

their own unique influences. Even the Polytrack surfaces at Keenelend and at Del

Mar have their own unique composition. And, both pace bias and post position

bias are generally quite different depending on the specific track and/or the

specific distance of the race. All weather surface racing makes it even more

important today to handicap on a race type specific and race track specific

basis, including being very specific when it comes to race distances.

About ALL-Ways Software Analysis Capabilities: As you use ALL-Ways, you will,

"behind the scenes," automatically build a race database for each track you

play. There are two specific analysis functions in ALL-Ways that use this

database and that have been particularly helpful for analyzing all weather

surface races. They are the ALL-Ways Impact Value Analysis and the ALL-Ways Gap

Analysis. To run these automatic analyses, you simply instruct ALL-Ways as to

the specific track and the specific kind(s) of races to analyze and then click

the "GO" button.

ALL-Ways Impact Value Analysis: The Impact Value Analysis determines the

power (Impact Value) and flat bet win profitability of 87 key handicapping

factors covering each horse's suitability to the distance and surface, current

form, class level and ability to handle the probable pace and speed demands of

the race. Jockey, trainer and pedigree factors are also included. Here are some

of the Impact Value Analysis results at Keeneland comparing the effect of moving

from "real dirt" races to all weather surface races.

Keeneland Sprints

"Real" Dirt

All Weather Surface

		IV	$2 Win		IV	$2 Win
BRIS Early Pace		1.89	$2.32		1.09	$1.56
Hall Final Fraction		1.06	$1.45		1.74	$2.53

This shows that horses ranked first for BRIS Early Pace won 1.89 times their

fair share of "real" dirt sprint races at Keeneland and yielded a $2 flat bet

payoff of $2.32, which is a 32 cents profit and a return on investment of 16

percent. However, when we look at all weather surface races, the Impact Value

drops dramatically to only 1.09 and the profits disappear with a 44 cent loss

for every $2 wagered. Now look at the Hall Final Fraction rating. It goes from

only a 1.06 Impact Value and a 55-cent loss for "real" dirt races to where the

top rated Hall Final Fraction horses have a 1.74 Impact Value and a 53-cent

profit in all weather surface races. We see similar figures for dirt sprints at

Hollywood Park. Again, however, it would be way too much of a generalization to

say that every all weather surface track favors closers, because there are

significant differences based on the specific synthetic surface used and the

specific distance of the race. When we look at Turfway Park, this shift from

early pace to late pace does not take hold until the longer sprint distances run

on the all weather surface. But then, closers have a huge advantage for all

weather surface routes, much more so than for "real" dirt routes. At Arlington

Park, the pace differences going from real dirt to all weather surface racing

are not nearly as dramatic. And, Arlington Park all weather surface races tend

to favor the inside posts whereas most other all weather surface tracks show a

significant bias towards the middle and outside posts. So, all tracks with races

run on an all weather surface are not the same! Again, a single ALL-Ways Impact

Value Analysis Report covers 87 key handicapping factors and does so on a track

specific and race type specific basis, including specific distances.

ALL-Ways Gap Analysis: The Gap Analysis shows the win percentage, the

in-the-money percentage and the win return-on-investment percentage for each

handicapping factor based on the size ("Gap") of the horse's advantage for the

factor. Here is an example of the win ROI for the Brohamer Total Ranking in

ALL-Ways software, an overall ranking of each horse's pace profile, for past all

weather surface sprints at Keeneland.

Win Return on Investment

Keeneland AWS Sprints		Gap		Gap		Gap		Gap
		+1		+2 +		3		+4
Brohamer Total Ranking		38%		40%		67%		74%

This shows that horses with a one point advantage for the Brohamer Total

Ranking yield a flat win bet profit of 38 percent. This profitability typically

increases as the horse's Gap advantage increases.

About ALL-Ways Unique All Weather Surface Handicapping Information: ALL-Ways

software includes the all weather surface handicapping information you would

expect including extensive track bias statistics, each horse's all weather

surface performance statistics, both lifetime performances and more specifically

at today's all weather surface track. And, ALL-Ways includes each horse's AWS

BRIS Speed 2/3, Best AWS BRIS Speed and Best AWS BRIS Speed at Today's Track.

But, there is a whole lot more all weather surface handicapping help in

ALL-Ways.

Hall Pace and Speed Figures: In addition to BRIS pace and speed figures,

ALL-Ways includes the unique Hall pace and speed figures as well. When you use

ALL-Ways, "behind the scenes," ALL-Ways automatically updates and maintains pace

and speed par times for every track in North America. ALL-Ways takes a horse's

actual times at a track and adjust for the Daily Track Variant and, if

appropriate, makes a track-to-track adjustment as well. Virtually all good pace

and speed figures do the same, including the BRIS figures. But, the Hall figures

go a step further. They make use of the concept of "conservation of energy," and

adjust each of the horse's past performance races to estimate how the horse's

performances would have been at today's specific distance on today's specific

surface at today's specific track. In other words, the Hall numbers reflect an

estimate of how the horse's past performances would have been in today's

specific race. This "normalization" approach has proven to be particularly

strong for the new all weather surface tracks. Here are the win

return-on-investment figures generated by the Gap Analysis for the Hall Pace

Line Speed factor in sprint races run on the all weather surface at Woodbine.

Win Return on Investment

Woodbine AWS Sprints		Gap		Gap		Gap		Gap
		+1		+2 +		3		+4
Hall Pace Line Speed		24%		47%		49%		54%

ALL-Ways Automatic Pace Line Selection: ALL-Ways automatically selects pace

line races for evaluating horses pace and speed figures with special

considerations given to past races run at today's all weather surface track or,

in the absence of such a race, for all weather surface races run at another

track.

BRIS and Hall Compound Pace and Speed Figures: These ratings are: Combined

Rating (Early Pace plus Final Fraction), Total Rating (Early Pace plus Speed)

and Late Rating (Final Fraction plus Speed). The Gap analyses for these Compound

Ratings, at virtually every all weather surface track in North America,

frequently point to solid profitable return-on-investment plays. Here are the

Gap Analysis return-on-investment figures for the Hall Pace Line Combined Rating

in all weather surface dirt routes at Golden Gate Fields.

Win Return on Investment

Golden Gate AWS Routes		Gap		Gap		Gap		Gap
		+1		+2 +		3		+4
Hall Pace Line Combined		42%		43%		54%		58%

Best Early and Best Late Handicapping: ALL-Ways newsletters introduced the

concept of Best Early and Best Late handicapping. The BRIS and Hall Total

ratings are a good way to identify the "best early" horses and the BRIS and Hall

Late ratings are a good way to identify the best late horses. These figures are

particularly valuable for use in wagers where two or more horses are used such

as 2-horse win wagers and exotics (exactas, Pick 3s etc...). Note that all

ALL-Ways Newsletters are available free on-line at both www.brisnet.com and

www.frandsen.com. These newsletters contain very helpful handicapping and

wagering ideas and are useful for ALL-Ways users and non-ALL-Ways users alike.

About ALL-Ways Special Handicapping Tools: Two of the most popular

handicapping tools in ALL-Ways continue to yield solid results for handicapping

all weather surface races. First, ALL-Ways automatically creates special

handicapping profiles that the software uses to make its selections and to

establish the ALL-Ways odds-line. One set of these profiles that have proven to

be particularly strong for all weather surface races are called Race Card

Multiple Regression (RCMR) profiles. All you do is click a single button and

ALL-Ways automatically looks at each individual race on the card, finds all

similar races in the race database for the track and uses advanced multiple

regression techniques to find the set of handicapping factors that work best in

combination with each other for the specific race. ALL-Ways then automatically

creates a handicapping profile made up of these factors and weights the factors

by there impact values. This is all automatic! You end up with an individual

handicapping profile for each individual race on the card. The second special

handicapping tool is the ability to create your own personal handicapping angles

called Custom Search Definitions. You can create and test your own angles from

scratch and/or you can use the ALL-Ways Angle Assistant feature to automatically

create them.

Strong Handicapping Reports for All Weather Surface Handicapping: The

ALL-Ways Pace Line Report includes BRIS and Hall pace line pace and speed

figures as well as many other comprehensive factors and can be used as a

standalone handicapping report. The ALL-Ways Top 10/Ranking Report shows every

horse's ranking for 19 different handicapping factors, including BRIS Class,

Speed and Pace figures and Hall pace and speed figures. The BRIS and Hall

Compound Pace and Speed Ratings discussed earlier are also included. Plus, you

can customize this report to include the handicapping factors of your choice.

The ALL-Ways Search Handicapping Report: This special handicapping report is

particularly powerful for playing all weather surface races. It includes

extensive track bias information, it identifies horses with strong Gap

advantage(s), it identifies good Key-Horse candidates, it uses the Compound

Ratings, discussed above, to identify the best early running and the best late

running horses (particularly powerful for multi-horse wagers) and it shows the

selections made by ALL-Ways Handicapping Profiles. It also identifies horses

qualifying for your own personal handicapping angles (Custom Search

Definitions).

Special Offer: Visit the ALL-Ways data files pages for access to special

batch downloads of all-weather, archived race meets at big discounts. With just

a few clicks, get a jump start on building your race database for the following

tracks: Arlington Park, Golden Gate, Keeneland, Woodbine and Hollywood Park.

Take Action: ALL-Ways software is free. You can call BRIS at (800) 354-9206

and have the software and User Manual, pre-printed in a three-ring binder,

mailed to you for a nominal S&H charge. You can also download ALL-Ways software

and the ALL-Ways User Manual from the BRIS Web site. You can also learn more

about ALL-Ways software by visiting the ALL-Ways Free Software Page on the BRIS

Web site. This includes more information about how ALL-Ways works and about how

best to get started with ALL-Ways to get on your way towards "cracking the code"

of all weather surface handicapping. You just might become an expert at it!

-- Gary Hall of Frandsen Publishing is the maker of ALL-Ways software