Arlington Notebook

ARLINGTON PARK NOTEBOOK

MAY 11, 2010

by David Zenner

With two racing weeks in the books for the 2010 season at Arlington Park,

let's take a look at how the Polytrack has been playing currently versus its

three-year historical numbers.

Through the first eight racing programs at the Chicagoland oval, there have

been 63 races contested over the synthetic main track with 64 winners as the

result of one dead heat for the top spot. While speed continues to dominate with

39 percent of those winners being front-runners, the track has begun to moderate

with week 2 showing less of a preponderance of gate-to-wire winners than week 1.

Inside position has proven to hold an advantage over outside runners through

the first two weeks, 58 percent to 42 percent, though again that has also

settled down in week 2 with the numbers starting to moderate.

Interestingly, favorites are performing at the industry standard 33 percent.

The way the track has played during the first two weeks of the current meet

flies in the face of the three-year averages on Arlington's Polytrack (the

surface was installed prior to the 2007 season) which show the track to be fair

to all type of runners.

With 2,151 races over the surface in its first three seasons, winners were

spread evenly between stalkers (28.3 percent), front runners (27.6 percent) and

closers (26.5 percent), with pressers accounting for the remaining 17.6 percent.

The historical inside/outside ratio of 56 percent/44 percent is consistent

with the current meet while favorites in the last three years have only

accounted for 31 percent of Polytrack winners.

The turf course has been put to good use with 19 races already run over the

infield green and only one race taken off due to weather conditions. The rail

has been set well outside all eight racing days contested so far in 2010.

Not surprisingly, the turf has played relatively evenly with stalkers and

closers making up 53 percent of the winners while front-runners and pressers

have brought home the remaining 47 percent of the victors.

With the rail as far out in the course as it has been (between 49 and 87 feet

in the first two weeks), it is no surprise that inside has fared much better

with 73 percent of the winners staying as close to the fence as possible.

Favorites are just slightly tougher to bring home thus far on the lawn, with

only 31 percent of the public's choices scoring.

On the human side of the ledger, just five wins separate the top 13 riders

with defending champ Junior Alvarado holding a one-win lead over Arlington

newcomer Michael Baze, who has proven to be a welcome addition to the jockey

colony. Two-time Hawthorne titlist Tanner Riggs has carried his momentum over

from the Southside track and continues to impress.

Again no surprise to see eight-time Arlington training champ Wayne Catalano

as part of the troika of leaders through two weeks along with Nick Canani, who

trains for leading owner Frank Calabrese, and Larry Rivelli, whose stock

continues to get better with each season.

HORSES TO WATCH

Thursday (5/6)

2ND -- TIGER STRIKE (Volponi) closed well against the speed bias to pick up a

share. Worth a play back if track is playing fair.

Sunday (5/9)

6TH -- STREET COMMANDER (Wall Street Dancer) bumped and checked in stretch

repeatedly, losing any chance of getting up.

10TH -- JEREMY'S KITTEN (Kitten's Joy) well bet in local bow. Very rank in

first turn, drifting very wide there and again in stretch. Watch for return with

blinkers.