Arlington Park Notebook

ARLINGTON PARK NOTEBOOK

JULY 24, 2009

by Frank Cotolo

What a great debut for the Arlington Notebook, handing out a stakes winner.

We gave out PEACH BREW (Milwaukie Brew) as our choice to win Saturday's Arlington Oaks,

a Grade 3 turf event, and the victory was worth $18.80. Let's encourage that

trend in the stakes to come this season and for our horses-to-watch list.

Completing the "Oaks" exacta was a 21-1 shot who shipped in from Iowa just

like the winner. What do they put in the grass out there? That exacta paid $244.

It was a 47-race week from July 15 through July 19 on the Polytrack and

Arlington turf. The menu was filled with a good share of different classes at

different distances and surfaces with a few recent indications to note.

First, sister-track Churchill Downs has been offering some shippers. Many of

those horses are new to Polytrack or have not been competing upon it recently.

Yet, they are performing well on the artificial surface. Though most have only

picked up place and show checks (a winner or two has surfaced), it is a wake-up

call for handicappers to begin paying attention to Churchill's first-time

travelers to Arlington Heights, Illinois.

Also note that horses returning to races at Arlington after layoffs since

racing at the Hawthorne meet have come back with a hunger to win. Since we began

this season's "Notebook," a pair of layoff runners from Hawthorne have won,

paying 14-1 and 7-1 in a small group of a dozen or so starters. That is a

flat-bet profit over the two-weeks of racing, featuring less than 20 races

including the condition. It is certainly not an empirically sound sample, but

this is the best time to sensationalize upon it.

Statistics

In just the most recent week of racing, 27 percent of all winners were

favorites. The weekly figure is close to the 30-percent average the track is

offering. Applause to handicappers is in order since some of these races have

been severely competitive.

There is something to be said about breaking up the statistics into weekly

numbers, since finding the beginning of a trend certainly affords more chances

to sensationalize on win prices than does waiting for a trend to literally

become a trend. Certainly some prospective patterns never develop into trends

but, as indicated above with the current Hawthorne-layoff gimmick, a few winners

at big prices can assist in a player's profiteering.

Nick Canani-conditioned runners went from 44-percent winners to 50-percent

winners, even though his nine winners put him last in the standings by earnings.

Second-place Danny Miller is still strong with 38-percent winners, and Dale

Bennett scores a 35-percent tally through the meet. All of these are more

profitable than the top guy, Hugh Robertson, who has 25-percent winners.

Coming up

Another turf stakes is featured this weekend. On Saturday, the $50,000 Gaily

Gaily is a 1 1/2-mile journey for fillies and mares.

A dozen will go to post, including BALLYNOE (Distorted Humor), INOPLOV

(Volponi), IT'S TIFFEN TIME (Najran), LEMONETTE (Lemon Drop Kid), COMMUNIQUE

(Smart Strike), WOODFOR GIRL (Honour and Glory), PEINTURE FRAICHE (Peintre

Celebre), CONFINED (Mojave Moon), POSITIVELYCHARMING (Pulpit), CAVAN THUNDER

(Jump Start), LABAR (Bianconi) and GRASSY NELLIE (Belong to Me).

We like Communique, who finished second in the Bewitch S. (G3) on the

Keeneland lawn this year. The five-year-old mare, winner of the 2008 Bewitch,

also finished second in the 2008 Beverly D. S. (G1) and has been racing strongly

on the grass this season.

HORSES TO WATCH

Wednesday (7/15)

3RD -- CHURUBUSCO (Deputy Commander) was hot on the rail, closing strongly

for second to a wire-to-wire winner, the only one of the day, in a mile race.

8TH --CHARLIE BABY (Cartwright) was unruly before loading and never ran a

step when leaving. This one is a clunker, toss it out, wait for his next one.

Thursday (7/16)

4TH -- MONASHEE SONG (Monashee Mountain) had a good opening half, getting to

the lead, but got caught at the mile. This is speed worth watching for on

another day.

5TH -- SINGING ROSE (Congaree) was in from Churchill (see notes above) and

got a good taste of Polytrack while chasing three wide for most of the six

panels.

8TH -- CABERNEIGH (E Dubai) picked it up too late to win, but was quite

threatening at 17-1 on the turf from the 10 post when he did make a go of it.

Friday (7/17)

4TH -- CURLY CAMELI (Petionville) got going late with a very wide rush,

gaining some.

8TH -- EXPLOIT THE SUN (Exploit) dueled while chasing the leader, was wide

and spent late from the mile task.

Saturday (7/18)

1ST -- NICK'S GIRL (Ecton Park) is a Churchill traveler who we have watched

before and now takes on Polytrack, closing like a giant at six furlongs and

getting claimed. New connections will have her sharp staying in or out of jail.

4TH -- GREEN IS FOR GO (With Approval) got stalled in a whole bunch of turf

traffic, getting touched and disturbed, blocked and bothered, all of which

ruined what may have been a winning run at 8-1.