Belmont Notebook

BELMONT NOTEBOOK

SEPTEMBER 17, 2014

by John Mucciolo

A pair of grassy graded stakes topped the second week of racing of the fall

meet at Belmont Park.

Sands Point S. (G2): Farish and Mooney's BALL DANCING (Exchange Rate)

swung five-wide into the lane, outdueled the eventual runner-up inside the final

furlong and won going away by a half-length for trainer Chad Brown. The talented

sophomore filly went nine panels on the firm lawn in 1:50 with Joe Bravo in the

silks.

Noble Damsel S. (G3): Bolton and Leidel's ANNECDOTE (Lucky Story)

tracked near the back of the pack to the top of the lane, picked up nice

momentum to get in range nearing midstretch and blew past her foes late en route

to a 2 3/4-length romp beneath Irad Ortiz Jr. The Christophe Clement-conditioned

import completed the mile in 1:35 on the firm lawn.

Track Stats

A total of 47 races were held at Elmont, New York venue, with favorites

winning at a 34 percent rate and the top two betting choices combining for 65

percent of the wins during the week. From 21 races on the main oval, eight

animals won in wire-to-wire fashion (38 percent), while three of the 26 races on

the lawn were taken all the way on the front (12 percent).

Speed was pretty good on the main oval eight leading at every call on the way

to victory, but a handful of those came in maiden dashes, which are often run in

this manner. The dirt oval is playing fairly, with a slight edge to runners in

the mix somewhat early on.

Inside posts did most of the damage on the dirt once again this week with no

horse breaking outside of slot six coming home a winner from 21 races. If the

trend continues, we will make more of it.

From a trio of wire jobs on the lawn, two came in route runs and one in a

dash. Closing types are preferred somewhat right now, and even more so on the

outer turf course.

Meet Totals

RACES:		76
DIRT:		34
TURF:		42
FAVORITES:		24 (31 percent)
2ND CHOICES:		13 (17 percent)
TURF WIRE:		7 (17 percent)
DIRT WIRE:		10 (29 percent)

HORSES TO WATCH

Wednesday (9/10)

1ST -- The nine-year-old ITALIAN RULES (Tribal Rule) made pretty short work

of this field and shows no signs of aging at this point. The Cal-bred came home

in a blistering :23 2/5 and should be a fine claim for Jeremiah Englehart.

6TH -- TIZ A CHANCE (Tiz Wonderful) stalked near midpack and closed with good

energy in a solid runner-up showing at first asking for Graham Motion. The

juvenile colt took a ton of money and appeared to have something left past the

wire, so he looks a logical candidate to win next time out, possibly with a bit

more ground to work with.

Thursday (9/11)

6TH -- The Kelly Breen-trained CALAMITY KATE (Yes It's True) took a short

lead approaching the turn for home and poured it on late in a fine maiden tally

under Paco Lopez. The Monmouth shipper made easy work of a field that may have

had some quality to it, and we likely won't get 19-1 odds on her in her return,

sadly.

8TH -- DEMANDER (Yes It's True) had little chance of rallying into the

dawdling pace set by the wire-to-wire winner, but is was a decent effort and we

still have some hopes for the Ian Wilkes trainee. A move to the lawn might be

something to consider for the sophomore.

Friday (9/12)

1ST -- Kenny McPeek might have a good one after THE TRUTH OR ELSE (Yes It's

True) drove home an impressive winner in a swift final time over a field with a

pair of solid prospects. The well-bred colt should run long through his dam and

he is one we will surely keep an eye on going forward, with his next likely run

at Keeneland.

3RD -- PARIS BIKINI (Bernardini) took command early and held the 2-5 favorite

at bay late in a sharp debut score for trainer Todd Pletcher. The juvenile filly

is kin to the twice graded stakes-placed sophomore America, and this miss has a

lot more early foot than that capable filly. She is interesting prospect going

forward.

Saturday (9/13)

5TH -- RED GUARD (Bernardini) was last at the top of the lane but finished

with fine energy in a very good fourth-place run in this grassy debut for

trainer Shug McGaughey. The juvenile colt is bred to be a good one, and this was

a nice start to his career for a barn that doesn't put much into their

juveniles.

9TH -- DAREDEVIL (More Than Ready) sent notice as a juvenile colt to watch

with this powerful debut win, leading at every call. The Pletcher pupil is a

half-brother to 2009 Donn H. (G1) star Albertus Maximus and his pedigree

suggests that he will run longer for sure.

Sunday (9/14)

10TH -- ODE TO THE HUNT (Artie Schiller) was never getting to the winner but

did offer a nice turn of foot to be second in this turf debut for trainer Rick

Violette. The two-year-old colt will be tough right back with expected

improvement from a good barn with juveniles.

A Look Ahead

Saturday's Grade 2, $300,000 Gallant Bloom Handicap is the lone graded race

this weekend at Belmont Park.