Belmont Report

BELMONT REPORT

MAY 22, 2008

by James Scully

Eleven of the 29 horses who have sought the Triple Crown won the Belmont S.

(G1), a respectable 38 percent success rate, but it only used to be

feasible. Or at least it seems that way, with the sweeps all coming in the first half

of the 20th century and the 1970s. We're stuck in a 30-year drought, with the

last 10 horses to win both the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Preakness (G1) failing at

Belmont Park.

BIG BROWN (Boundary) will have his chance at history on June 7, and we've got

two weeks left to speculate about the possibilities. Could the 1 1/2-mile

distance trip up the lightly raced colt? What about the unbeaten Japanese horse

out of the great broodmare? After running fast in his first two stakes efforts, the Florida Derby

(G1) and Kentucky Derby, respectively,

Big Brown's final time in the Preakness (1:54.80 for 1 3/16 miles) has been

criticized. He earned a 110 in the Florida Derby and 108 in the Kentucky Derby,

but received only a 101 in the Preakness.

Big Brown still managed to run faster than every Preakness winner from

1999-2005, and he was under wraps in the final eighth of a mile, crushing his

competition for the fifth straight time in a five-race career. Who doesn't think

he could've run faster if needed?

Trainer Richard Dutrow deserves plenty of credit. Initially conditioned by

Pat Reynolds, Big Brown won his first start by 11 1/4 lengths in early September

but missed the remainder of his juvenile season due to foot problems. After

returning to the worktab for Dutrow in late November, he recorded five workouts

at Palm Meadows training center in December, but the once-raced colt suffered a

setback in January. Big Brown wasn't in serious training for the first six weeks

this year, finally posting a half-mile work on February 24, and that left the

well-built bay on a very tight schedule. He couldn't afford any more setbacks or

the Kentucky Derby was out of the question.

Big Brown made his seasonal bow on March 5, winning an allowance event by 12 3/4 lengths, and captured the Florida Derby (G1) 24 days

later by five lengths. He hasn't missed a beat over the last three months,

thanks in large part to Dutrow.

The 1 1/2-mile distance is a challenge. Big Brown's sire, Boundary, captured

the 1994 runnings of the A Phenomenon H. (G3) and Roseben H. (G3) at six

furlongs and couldn't run 12 furlongs in under 10 minutes. Big Brown obviously

receives plenty of stamina from other elements in his pedigree. He isn't

displaying any limitations whatsoever, but 1 1/2 miles remains an extreme test.

He'll be running his third race in five weeks with limited career experience,

and perhaps we'll see those races take a toll off a three-week hiatus in the Belmont.

One thing in his favor is that Big Brown probably doesn't have to be at his

absolute best to win. Affirmed didn't have that luxury in 1978, but Big Brown

doesn't have a rival like Alydar. At least not yet. We're tempted to write off

the competition, but nobody knows for sure about CASINO DRIVE (Mineshaft).

The superstar moniker works on the track with Big Brown and in the breeding

shed with Better Than Honour. The latter is the dam of 2006 Belmont winner Jazil,

and 2007 Belmont winner and champion Rags to Riches. She'll go for an

unprecedented hat trick with Casino Drive.

Casino Drive made his first start at Kyoto, Japan, on February 23, winning an

about 1 1/8-mile maiden special weight event by a 11 1/2-length margin over 12

rivals, and carried his spectacular form to the United States when capturing the

Peter Pan S. (G2) by 5 3/4 lengths on May 10. He's clearly a talented, extremely

promising colt, but is two races enough experience to knock off Big Brown?

Ten or more challengers could line up in the starting gate, but it's

difficult to take any of them too seriously. There's an overwhelming sense that

they'll be running for second if Big Brown shows up with his best. I can't help

but speculate about a possible match-up with Horse of the Year Curlin (Smart

Strike) while essentially conceding the Triple Crown to the mighty Big Brown.

But they still have to run the race.