Belmont Report

BELMONT REPORT

JUNE 5, 2008

by James Scully

The wait is nearly over. BIG BROWN (Boundary) dominated the Kentucky Derby

(G1) and Preakness (G1), winning so convincingly that the Triple Crown appears

well within his grasp, but there's a certain mystique to the Belmont S. (G1).

The daunting 1 1/2-mile test presents a unique challenge for every horse, and

Spectacular Bid looked every bit as invincible as Big Brown when he went down to

defeat in 1979. We've had nearly three weeks to think about the possibility of

the first American Triple Crown winner in 30 years, and, as Tom Petty says, the

waiting is the hardest part.

The re-occurrence of a quarter-crack has heightened the drama. Foot problems

limited the gifted colt to only three career starts prior to the Derby, so Big

Brown's feet became a legitimate concern the moment he crossed the finish line

in Louisville, Kentucky. Those worries nearly became a nightmare over the

Memorial Day Weekend when a quarter-crack was discovered in his left front foot.

On May 26, well-renowned hoof specialist Ian McKinlay applied a set of stainless

steel wires to hold the split together, and Big Brown quickly returned to

training. He's maintained his exceptional appearance in the mornings, drilling

five furlongs in a bullet 1:00 on Tuesday, and his foot has held up extremely

well, according to all reports. Barring another flare-up, Big Brown figures to

be at full strength on Saturday.

Wednesday's post draw didn't please his connections, with Big Brown drawing

the rail, but post position doesn't look important for him. He broke from the

far outside in the Florida Derby (G1) and Kentucky Derby, and from a middle gate

in the Preakness. He could break a step slowly from any post -- and the last

thing anybody wants to see is a stumble when the gates open -- but the rail

shouldn't have any impact upon Big Brown's performance. Kent Desormeaux will

attempt to keep his mount clear of trouble, and the easiest way to do so is to

utilize Big Brown's natural speed.

With the possible exception of DA' TARA (Tiznow), there's no speed in the

Belmont field. Big Brown won his first three starts, including the Florida Derby

(G1), on the front end before rating off a blistering early pace in both the

Derby and Preakness. The Kentucky-bred can revert to front-running tactics in

the Belmont, and that strategy will take some pressure off Desormeaux, who has

been criticized for moving too early upon Real Quiet in the 1998 edition. Real

Quiet opened a three-length advantage at the top of the stretch after being

given his cue by the Hall of Fame jockey, but he fell a nose short to Victory

Gallop at the wire.

Desormeaux has more horse to work with this time around. Big Brown performs

like a Lamborghini, while the competition sputters along behind him, and the

unbeaten colt has thrashed six of the nine other entrants in Saturday's field,

which also includes a maiden. He still needs a good ride around the cavernous

Elmont, New York, oval, but it's difficult to imagine Desormeaux making a

mistake that would cost Big Brown the race.

Fred Seitz has entered the zero-for-five GUADALCANAL (Graeme Hall), and the

sophomore's past performances are ugly. In his last two dirt starts, Guadalcanal

finished eighth and seventh, beaten by a whopping 26 3/4 and 16 lengths,

respectively. He would have a difficult time winning a maiden special weight

race on the undercard, and the decision to run him against Big Brown in the

Belmont makes no sense whatsoever. How will he avoid losing by a pole? Perhaps

Seitz's decision was motivated by a lack of respect for the remaining

competition.

I respect DENIS OF CORK (Harlan's Holiday) and MACHO AGAIN (Macho Uno), who

look like improving three-year-olds with the opportunity to win some big races

in the future, but they're still probably overmatched in the Belmont. Big Brown

is simply too fast for them at this stage in their careers. Denis of Cork owns a

lifetime-best 99 BRIS Speed rating. Macho Again registered a 103 in the 7

1/2-furlong Derby Trial S., but his best number at two turns is a 95.

CASINO DRIVE (Mineshaft) owns the best chance for an upset. After breaking

his maiden in Japan on February 23, he made his next start in the May 10 Peter

Pan S. (G2) and proceeded to crush his rivals, earning a 109 Speed rating for a

5 3/4-length romp. He may be too inexperienced with only two starts to his

credit, but he owns the talent and breeding to be a serious factor in the

Belmont. And he won't be hopped up on the drugs that are rampant in U.S. racing.

Based in Japan, which, unlike the United States, has strict medication rules, Casino Drive isn't racing on steroids or any other performance-enhancing drugs.

He'll even be Lasix-free when he enters the starting gate, and that's something

for every horse racing fan to admire.

Richard Dutrow has readily admitted that he gives Big Brown a dose of the

steroid Winstrol on the 15th of every month. Other trainers aren't so

forthcoming, but nobody would be surprised to learn that all nine U.S. runners

are performing on steroids. It's unfortunately legal.

I'll still be rooting for Big Brown. We can debate what benefit a Triple

Crown winner will bring Thoroughbred racing -- it will hurt the sport down the

road if he never races again -- but I know that it will be something to

celebrate if he wins on Saturday. Many people have never seen a Triple Crown

winner, only heard stories about the great ones of the 1970s and before, and

it's time to put the long drought to rest. Big Brown is a superstar among his

peers and has the opportunity to be remembered as a great one.