Belmont Report

BELMONT REPORT

MAY 22, 2014

by James Scully

One victory stands between California Chrome and Thoroughbred racing's

immortality and the degree of difficulty makes it one of the most elusive feats

in sports -- the Belmont Stakes will pull the chair out from the greatest of

expectations.

California Chrome faces a demanding task at the 1 1/2-mile distance,

squaring off against another expected large field on June 7, and most of his

rivals will be well-rested. Strange things happen sometimes in the Belmont

Stakes.

He still has a lot going for him. California Chrome has won six straight

races with authority, bossing around the competition as he pleased, and could

continue to overwhelm the competition with his talent. But there's no reason for

overconfidence entering the Belmont Stakes.

Here are some of my thoughts following Saturday's Preakness:

Tougher test: After failing to witness a formidable

challenge at Churchill Downs, with Victor Espinoza waiting until the top of the

stretch to put away the Kentucky Derby field in a few strides, the Preakness

proved to be more of a horse race. The jockey needed to ask California Chrome

much sooner, with Social Inclusion offering a serious run at him and the lead on

the far turn. The heavy favorite summarily dismissed that rival and then turned

back the stretch challenge of Ride On Curlin, keeping the runner-up comfortably

safe late.

Ears pricked: Espinoza applied pressure but was mostly showing his

mount the whip during the latter stages, riding California Chrome through the

wire for the first time in a long time, and the chestnut's ears were flicking

back and forth in deep stretch, like he was still interested in doing more. The

stories after the Derby and Preakness are the same -- he cooled out very quickly

-- and I've seen nothing to suggest that we've gotten to the bottom of him yet.

Brilliant ride: Espinoza displayed aggressive tactics from the gate --

angling California Chrome toward the middle of the track after breaking from

post 3. He wasn't going to let another rider pin him down on the inside and

California Chrome bumped Social Inclusion a couple of times early to keep that

rival from coming over. Espinoza maneuvered where he wanted to be entering

the backstretch, up close stalking a pair of front-runners in third while in the

clear, and probably doesn't receive the credit deserved for his expert

handling.

Experience factor: Espinoza has been in this position before, guiding War Emblem

to victories in the Derby and Preakness before a stumbling start cost him any

chance in the 2002 Belmont. California Chrome will continue to be the target for

all the other riders in the race, but Espinoza brings a swagger to the equation

that helps him.

Speed fig: His numbers were strong in the prep races but California

Chrome's final time in the Kentucky Derby wound up on the slow side. He ran

faster in the Preakness, generating a 105 BRIS Speed rating while recording the

quickest time since Curlin in 2007.

Tactical edge: Twelve furlongs remains a serious obstacle but

California Chrome's natural speed is an advantage -- we can count on him being

in prime spot turning for home in the 146th edition of the Belmont Stakes. And

that could prove to be the difference in a race where all the horses --

front-runners, stalkers and deep closers alike -- are eligible to be tiring late

due to the extreme distance.

Better competition awaits: California Chrome continued to impress in

the Preakness but I don't know what to make of the competition -- Ride On Curlin

and third-placer Social Inclusion, who is lightly raced and appeared to be

emerging from a bath in the post parade, aren't even stakes winners yet. Both

will continue to the Belmont Stakes but I've got Tonalist (Peter Pan winner) and

Wicked Strong (TwinSpires.com Wood Memorial hero) pegged as more dangerous

rivals.

Lucky 13: He became the 13th horse to capture the first two legs of

the Triple Crown since Affirmed produced the last sweep in 1978. With his modest

California-bred pedigree, California Chrome cost little for his owners to breed and

is trained by a 77 year old in Art Sherman that most people had never heard of.

The owners resisted multi-million dollar offers to sell him earlier this year

and are being handsomely rewarded for their confidence. No. 13 has been lucky,

indeed.

I'll take a closer look at the entire field in next week's Belmont Report.