Deterministic makes it a hat trick in BC WAYI Fourstardave

After a romp in the Fort Marcy (G2) and a brave display in the Manhattan (G1), Deterministic extended his winning skein to three in Saturday’s $750,000 “Win and You’re In” Fourstardave (G1) at Saratoga. The Miguel Clement trainee worked out an ideal stalk-and-pounce trip to stamp his ticket to the Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1). 

Despite his current form, Deterministic went off at a generous 4.60-1, perhaps in part because he was reverting to a mile for the first time in more than a year. Bettors flocked instead to California shipper Johannes, last year’s Breeders’ Cup Mile runner-up, and made him the 9-5 favorite. But Johannes was returning from a seven-month layoff in this spot, and he never got involved after early trouble shuffled him back to last. 

Deterministic, on the other hand, put his tactical speed to good use. Well handled by Kendrick Carmouche, who masterminded front-running coups in his last two, the Liam’s Map colt was asked to secure a forward position from post 8. My Boy Prince was a bit faster from post 2, and Carmouche accordingly perched in second through fractions of :23.83, :47.56, and 1:10.77 on the firm inner turf.

Meanwhile, Johannes was enduring a much more challenging trip in his first visit to the Spa. Bumping with My Boy Prince from the gate, the favorite found himself further behind, and his task was compounded by having to steady at the rear. Fans could see the handwriting on the wall as Johannes didn’t kick on down the lane, winding up ninth in the 10-horse field. 

But Deterministic quickened sharply turning into the stretch, and that gave him a decisive jump on the closers. Pouncing on My Boy Prince, the dark bay drove 1 1/4 lengths clear in a final time of 1:33.87.

Intellect, the only contender to land a blow from off the pace, rallied from seventh to take runner-up honors. Win for the Money, third at every call, stayed on at one pace to relegate My Boy Prince to fourth in a photo. 

Think Big closed belatedly for fifth, followed by Cugino, Lagynos, Spirit of St Louis, Johannes, and the eased Neat, who was transported off the course by ambulance. According to a tweet from NYRA’s Keith McCalmont, the ambulance ride was “precautionary,” and Neat was to undergo further evaluation back at the barn. 

Deterministic paid $11.20 while boosting his bankroll to $1,988,515 from his 13-7-3-1 line. Campaigned by St. Elias Stable, Ken Langone, C. Steven Duncker, and Vicarage Stable, he was a juvenile debut winner on the Saratoga dirt in 2023 for the late Christophe Clement. A comeback score in the 2024 Gotham (G3) put him on the Triple Crown trail, until unplaced efforts in the Wood Memorial (G2) and Peter Pan (G3) gave him the green light to switch surfaces. Deterministic has been an ultra-consistent operator on the turf ever since. His resume includes victories in last year’s Virginia Derby (G3) and Hill Prince (G3), along with placings in the Manila (G3), Saratoga Derby (G1), and Jockey Club Derby (G3). Deterministic is now 3-for-3 since teaming up with Carmouche this season. 

“He has tactical speed so you can use it,” Miguel Clement said after the Fourstardave. “He was moving very well. I think Kendrick was just waiting to make his move. When he went for it, he went big. The horse delivered. He is a top-class horse. He's won on multiple surfaces over a wide range of distances. He makes us look good because he is top-class.”

Clement added that he was “beyond bullish” given the pace scenario. “I thought Jose Ortiz (on My Boy Prince) was in front and slowed them down. I told Kendrick to break well the first 50 yards, and then you decide to either go for it or sit in second. On paper, those were the two most logical speeds. They were able to dictate the pace and control it from the front end. It made the closers virtually impossible to come back.”

“My horse broke very good like always,” Carmouche recapped. “I saw Jose Ortiz (on My Boy Prince) ride his horse out of there pretty good, and once I looked around and I saw nobody that was within a length and a half behind me in the first quarter of a mile, I pressed the e-brake, just let him settle. I thought when I turned on the backside, he had a horse run up on the backside of him, about a length and a quarter, and man, you can feel him – he wanting to go, and I say, ‘Oh, I’m OK, I can feel him.’ 

“I thought they went a pretty slow pace for these types of horses. Once I got to the turn, I let Jose’s horse switch leads, and I just figured I should bring the race to him because my horse runs good around the turns. He loves to hold horses off because he loves to feel it whenever they’re coming, so with that being said, I thought I’d done the right thing out there to make us successful today.

“I know Christophe (Clement) is so happy for his son up there – and my dad – so we’ve got to keep this moving. We’re going to the Breeders’ Cup next, even better – tighter turns, shorter stretch.”

If Deterministic advances to Del Mar on the first Saturday in November, he could meet Johannes on the latter’s home turf. Johannes’ regular rider, Umberto Rispoli, was hoping that he exits his rough Fourstardave experience in good shape. 

“I got knocked out of the gate right away,” Rispoli said. “Coming off a layoff like that…to get a huge bump out of the gate, it shuffled me a few lengths back. 

“Going into the first turn, a really tight turn, I was in a spot, but then I had to come back because I didn’t have enough horse (to hold position), and I would have put him in a bad spot. He kept clipping heels, and it definitely wasn’t the place I wanted to sit around the course, but I know he’s a horse who’s capable of catching them in a couple of strides. The tight turns didn’t help, and he kept switching his leads. 

“Hopefully, he will come back sound because My Boy Prince hit me really well out of the gate. Going to regroup, go back home, and see what happens.”

Clement will likewise let the dust settle before mapping out the next target for Deterministic, with the Sept. 13 Woodbine Mile (G1) or the Oct. 4 Coolmore Turf Mile (G1) at Keeneland his logical options en route to the Breeders’ Cup.