Churchill Downs Notebook

CHURCHILL DOWNS NOTEBOOK

JUNE 11, 2009

by Frank Cotolo

We're back to four racing days, totaling 41 races from June 4 through June 7.

Most of the races presented good-sized fields. Certainly the reduction in the

race programs has not affected the overall prices for winners, proving that even

the abbreviated schedule is producing events with great opportunities for the

value-minded.

With more than a month on the record at Churchill, and including the brief

Keeneland meet preceding it, here is some good news and some tips on following

the weekly Horses to Watch list.

First, I have found that the horses on our lists should be monitored for two

starts after they appear on the list, wherever they show up racing.

As well, it is imperative that you follow these horses even if they do not

race the next two times at Keeneland or Churchill. Horses like That's So Funny

(Yes It's True),

appearing on our late-April list, recently returned at Indiana Downs for a

whopping win (see list below).

Finally, our listed horses have been playing decent roles in exactas and

trifectas, even when they are not winning. So keep them in mind for exotic play.

Here are the win, place and show horses from our Keeneland and Churchill

lists to date (horses with at least one start after listing). The name of the

horse is followed by the finish position of its next two races, with win prices

appearing for victories (stakes choices are not included).

Super Nekia , second

Gamblers Reward, second, $6.80

Cub's Power,. third, out

Lady Shakespeare, $4.40

Gerivello, second, second

Dobra, $6.20

Bellafina, third, third

Run For Shelter, $9.40

Sunday at Tip's, third

That's So Funny, $51.20

Vacation, $9.20

Ocean Colors, third

Kiss the Queen, second

Q The Music, $2.80

Lavenham, second, $11.40

Do Drop In, second, out

Messa Nera, second

Miss Marple, third

Stamp, $3.00

Alexandrite Ring, third

Pic A Chic, third

Saffhire Lake, $7.40

Track stats

The average of winning favorites made no significant change as races hit the

400 mark of the meet. A mere point and fraction less than the national standard,

favorites are winning at a 31.6-percent clip.

You should, as I am, scrap any and all figures concerning come-from-behind

versus wire-to-wire winners because the track is playing so evenly that it is a

false statistic to point out a bias. If anything,

near-wire-to-wire winners, that is, the speedy stalkers, are doing better. But

stalking, although it is a style, is more tactic than anything else, so let's

call it an even playing field until some anomaly is identifiable.

Coming up

Saturday offers five graded stakes, headlined by the Stephen

Foster H. (G1), where EINSTEIN (Brz) (Spend a Buck) is expected to dominate. As well, Einstein

will try to join Lava Man as the only other horse to win Grade 1 races on dirt,

grass and synthetic surfaces. ASIATIC BOY (Arg) (Not for Sale) will try to stop him, as will

stakes winners ARSON SQUAD (Brahms), FINALLYMADEIT (Concerto), RESEARCHER (Two

Smart), BULLSBAY (Tiznow) and MACHO AGAIN (Macho Uno).

The Fleur de Lis H. (G2) for three-year-old-and-up

fillies and mares is also on the menu, and the Jefferson Cup S. (G2), the Northern Dancer

S. (G3) and the Regret S. (G3) will all be held for three-year-olds.

HORSES TO WATCH

Thursday (6/4)

3RD -- JAZZ MASTER (Dixieland Band) was not at his best in this event, even though on paper he

looked wonderful. He made a wimpy effort in the stretch and may do much better

next time with Joe Woodward now conditioning after a claim here.

5TH -- PAUL'S GIFT (Ire) (Rock of Gibraltar [Ire]) was easily the best of the rest at the finish after

showing some sharp speed on the muck, leading most of the way.

7TH -- LEROIDUGAZON (Leroidesanimaux [Brz]) made a good debut, displaying honest speed at first

crack, and finished a respectable third at 8-1. This one could break maiden status

next run.

9TH -- CITY SNITCH (Carson City) hadn't raced since 2006 at Saratoga but still mustered up

5-1 status in this, showing speed in the middle. We are still watching all

visitors from the New York track, no matter the length of the layoff.

Friday (6/5)

4TH -- THIS SMOKE DID IT (Devil His Due) was caught in the stretch after pushing hard to get

the lead early in this speedy turf sprint.

8TH -- JOZI'S TURN (Johannesburg) had a great start, saving ground inside, but struggled a

bit late. At 16-1, it was a terrific showing, perhaps a wake-up call.

9TH -- BAMBOLINA (War Chant) had no excuse that we could see for being so badly outrun in

this turf sprint. We have to consider this a toss out and go right back at

supporting her next out.

10TH -- MANTEO (In the Zone) was very confident at 7-1, leaving from post 10 and surviving

a five-wide trip in a crowded field to capture third.

Saturday (6/6)

3RD -- MAKUTUS (Menifee) almost recorded a rare wire to wire at 1 1/16 miles and held well

for third at 7-1, beaten late by the second and third public choices.

6TH -- ROCKSLIDE SLIM (Rock Slide) had a difficult overland journey, five wide at one

point, and tired from the effort.

7TH -- CHARLIE'S THUNDER (Twining) is an Indiana Downs invader who put in a strong

race chasing the top choices. Should cash some checks in the claiming

ranks.

Sunday (6/7)

2ND -- G AREYOUKIDDING (Matty G) pressed the leader firmly at 11-1, then angled to take

a second route and tired.

6TH -- GOLDEN TREE (Golden Missile) was claimed and may stay out of jail considering this was

a good performance, up and moving three wide.