Churchill Downs Notebook

CHURCHILL DOWNS NOTEBOOK

MAY 12, 2005

by Dick Powell

How do you explain the unexplainable? A 50-1 shot and a 71-1 shot run one-two

in the Kentucky Derby (G1) with record exotic payoffs all around. The only

thing more improbable than this year's Derby result was Diego Corrales getting

up off the canvas twice in the 10th round and stopping Jose Luis Castillo 30

seconds later in their Lightweight Championship fight Saturday night. You watch

enough events and you get to see everything and Saturday's Run for the Roses

left most shaking their heads.

Ordinarily, we would say the race fell apart, draw a line through it, and

move on. But we need to at least try to make sense of the outcome for future

purposes.

On Saturday, WILDCAT SHOES (Forest Wildcat) won the 2ND race going six

furlongs in 1:08.03. And this was after covering the first half in 43.78. You

could tell by the flags waving that there was a strong wind coming across the

track from the backside to the frontside, so horses in one-turn sprints had the

wind at their sides on the straightaways and behind them on the turn.

Obviously, based on the running times of the early races, the main track was

rock hard and sprinters never really had to contend with the strong wind. As the

day wore on, the inside paths seemed to be the deepest part of the main track.

Madcap Escapade (Hennessy) threw out the anchor at the eight pole in the Humana

Distaff H. (G1) while racing up against the rail despite setting modest

(for her) fractions.

By the time the Derby was run, the wind seemed to die down to a stiff breeze.

Still, the horses would be running into it going around the first turn and it

would be interesting to see who would benefit.

As expected, Spanish Chestnut (Horse Chestnut [SAf]) gunned to the front in his

rabbit's role and led the field by the stands the first time. Joe Bravo had him

three paths away from the rail and he covered the first quarter in 22.28. Around

the turn into the wind while a bit wide, he hit the half in 45.38 and I maintain

that the impact of the pace was even greater considering it was into the wind.

With the exception of Closing Argument (Successful Appeal), every horse who

was near the early pace was nowhere to be found at the end. And he, luckily, had

a wide trip on what was probably the best part of the track. With the big field,

you were better off being wide and clear than down on a dead rail and in

traffic.

So we have a blistering pace with the outside seeming to provide the better

footing yet the track was very hard and carrying speed. Usually when you see a

chart like this year's Derby, you can assume it was a tiring track. But it was a

rock-hard track that carried speed and the top two finishers had pedigrees that

made them very suspect going 10 furlongs. Sounds contradictory to me and it is.

If you told me before the race that there would be a blistering pace into a

headwind and that nearly all the front runners would wilt under it, I would have to

assume that the strong horses would have a major edge. Stout pedigrees would

seem to be the order of the day. But this year's Derby was not a true test of

stamina for those that bided their time early and the hard track enabled the top

two to negotiate 10 furlongs despite suspect pedigrees and in the case of the

winner, GIACOMO (Holy Bull), a higher than accepted dosage index.

When looking back at this year's Derby, forgive the horses who ran near the

pace and those that raced on the inside -- High Fly (Atticus), Sun King

(Charismatic), Noble Causeway (Giant's Causeway) and, to a lesser extent,

Andromeda's Hero (Fusaichi Pegasus) and High Limit (Maria's Mon).

Spanish Chestnut, Bellamy Road (Concerto), Going Wild (Golden Missile) and

Flower Alley (Distorted Humor) all raced on or near the blistering pace and paid

for it when the running got serious and they came up empty.

Giacomo was a highly-regarded juvenile last year for John Shirreffs and was

only beaten a length in the Hollywood Futurity (G1) by Declan's Moon (Malibu

Moon). He made his seasonal debut in the Sham S. going nine furlongs and was third behind

Going Wild in a wide trip. In the San Felipe S. (G2), he was beaten by six lengths

on a wet-fast track that favored speed all day.

My problem with him was in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) when he was fourth behind

speed horses and could not make up any ground. His past

performance lines show a horse that doesn't pass other horses willingly and he

looked like a toss. However, after the Santa Anita Derby, Shirreffs put the

hammer down and he worked seven furlongs in a brilliant 1:23 4/5 and then six

furlongs in 1:11 4/5.

With all the rain in Southern California this winter, many horses had

interrupted training regimens and I could excuse his first two efforts of the

year but not his third.

Plus, his sire Holy Bull has a relatively low average winning distance of 6.9

furlongs and hasn't produced many two-turn main track stakes winners. His dosage

index was above 4.0 and unless your name was Giacomo it was hard to come up with

him.

Closing Argument I thought was somewhat more logical than Giacomo after the race was run and my scalp was bleeding from scratching it. Two

starts back in his seasonal debut, he won the Holy Bull S. (G3) at

Gulfstream going nine furlongs and handed High Fly his first loss. BRIS gave him a very

high Speed figure of 107 for the effort. His training was interrupted afterward

and trainer Kiaran McLaughlin skipped the Florida Derby (G1) and gave him two

more weeks for the Bluegrass S. (G1).

Off a 10-week layoff, Closing Argument was third, beaten nine lengths, after

being bumped and racing extremely wide. His Speed figure was only a 99 but he

looked like he had a slight chance based on his Holy Bull win and the fact that

with only two starts this year he might still have room to improve.

My problem with Closing Argument was a pedigree that screamed speed --

Successful Appeal out of a Mr. Greeley mare. Post 18 didn't figure to help,

especially with his pace-prompting running style, and I tossed him. Still, you

could make an argument for him based on a pattern that was similar to Thunder

Gulch (Gulch) and Monarchos (Maria's Mon).

The third-place finisher, Afleet Alex (Northern Afleet) ran a remarkable race

and got a remarkable ride by Jeremy Rose. He weaved in between horses and every

time Rose sent him through a hole he got there before it closed. In deep

stretch he looked like a winner but veered to the dreaded inside at the

sixteenth pole and began to spin his wheels. Considering his debacle in the Rebel

S. (G3)

and redemption in the Arkansas Derby (G2), it was a terrific training job by

Tim Ritchie. All the rumors about his physical condition proved to be unfounded

but I didn't like his pedigree either for 10 furlongs and was negative about

his chances.

The Kentucky Oaks (G1) on Friday attracted a record crowd of over 111,000 fans

and many of them may have learned a handicapping lesson that

could have been applied in the Derby the next day.

Sis City (Slew City Slew) was the 3-5 favorite based on huge wins in the

Davona Dale S. (G2) and Ashland S. (G1) in her last two starts. But blowout wins

raise questions about who they beat, can they run that well again and how

competitive they will be when challenged.

In the Ashland, Sis City took the lead on the first turn and tightened up on

SUMMERLY (Summer Squall), who had to take back some and was forced to chase. In

the Oaks, Jerry Bailey was back aboard and he employed the exact same tactics on

Sis City. The two betting choices gunned to the first turn and Bailey came over

ever so slightly on Edgar Prado aboard Sis City around the first turn.

It was not major traffic where Sis City had to be checked or taken up but

Prado definitely had to take his foot off the gas pedal momentarily and Bailey

had a clear lead down the backstretch. Prado swung Sis City to the outside and

took up the chase but you could see on the far turn that he was asking her to

run and she wasn't in the cruise control that she was in during her last two

starts.

Sis City hooked Summerly at the top of the stretch and it looked like an epic

stretch duel was in store but suddenly Sis City began to stride awkwardly and

Bailey guided Summerly to a cagey two-length win. It was an exact duplicate of

Bailey's ride aboard Peace Rules (Jules) in last year's New Orleans H.

(G2) when he did the same thing to Prado aboard Saint Liam (Saint Ballado).

Horses that raced at the Fair Grounds had a terrific weekend. Besides

Summerly's win in the Oaks, AMERICA ALIVE (American Chance) won the Woodford

Reserve Turf Classic (G1) for Neil Howard and Robby Albarado on Saturday. SHADOW

CAST (Smart Strike) was a handy winner in the Louisville Breeders' Cup H. (G2) and Rush Bay (Cozzene) lost a photo in the Crown Royal

American Turf S. (G3) when making his turf debut.

BATTLE WON's (Honour and Glory) easy 3 1/2-length win in the Churchill Downs H. (G2) over a

very deep field should answer any questions regarding how good SILENT WITNESS

(El Moxie) is. Winner of a record 17 straight turf sprint wins in Honk Kong, he

handled Battle Won with ease last December in a major turf sprint stakes at Sha

Tin.

This coming Sunday, Silent Witness' winning streak is in major jeopardy as he

stretches out to a mile for the first time and has to face multiple Group 1

winner ATTRACTION (Efisio). If he can handle her and get the mile, his

sporting owner Archie DaSilva might bring him to Belmont this October for the

Breeders' Cup Mile (G1).

BIAS REPORT

In one-turn races on the main track, only 13 of the 33 winners (39 percent) were

either first or second after a quarter of a mile was run. In two-turn races on

the main track, only three of the 11 winners (27 percent) were either first or second

after a quarter of a mile was run.

On Saturday, the inside paths on the main track seemed to be the deepest and

horses who raced down on it tired the most.

On the turf going two turns, only one of the seven (14 percent) winners were either

first or second after a quarter mile was run. There were two turf sprints run

and both winners were either first or second after a quarter mile was run.

HORSES TO WATCH

Tuesday (5/3)

2ND - ESCAPIST (Thunder Gulch) dropped down to maiden claimers for the

first time with blinkers added but wound up being wide behind a gate-to-wire

winner.

4TH - ESTEDAD (Favorite Trick) was bumped at the start, raced in traffic

before swinging nine wide at the top of the stretch and showed some stretch

kick.

9TH - CARMANDIA (Wild Rush) rallied wide behind dueling leaders to get

third in only her second start since September.

Wednesday (5/4)

2ND - ROUGH DRAFT (Notebook) chased a runaway winner going a mile in

a very fast time.

8TH - WAR TEMPO (Quiet American) was bumped at the start and then

forced to chase the pace while extremely wide against an impressive winner.

Thursday (5/5)

6TH - GRADES GOLD (Honor Grades) gunned to the front and pressed a very

fast pace while wide going a mile in stakes-quality time.

7TH - SINGIT (Sultry Song) rallied from far back to get third in a turf

sprint on a very firm turf course that carried speed well in the sprints.

9TH - HOT STORM (Stormy Atlantic) held on grimly when dueling for the

lead in a very rough trip.

Friday (5/6)

1ST - SEDUCTIVELY SMOOTH (Cape Canaveral) chased a very fast pace, took

over at the top of the stretch and then weakened in her well-bet career debut

for Steve Asmussen.

4TH - ELUSIVE JAZZ (Elusive Quality) weakened late after making a strong

middle move to the lead in his first start going a mile.

9TH - GUILLAUME TELL (Ire) (Rossini) is a one-dimensional turf horse that

rallied for third in a wide trip behind a relatively slow pace.

Saturday (5/7)

3RD - ELIJAH'S SONG (Unbridled's Song) was a good third as the beaten

favorite despite being bumped at the start and running into traffic.

5TH - TRICKEY TREVOR (Demaloot Demashoot) set a blazing-fast pace while

stuck down on the inside before tiring.