Classic Diary

CLASSIC DIARY

AUGUST 21, 2010

by James Scully

Three-year-old males will be covered this week, focusing on horses pointing for

either the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) or Dirt Mile (G1).

Lucky stars: Champion two-year-old LOOKIN AT LUCKY (Smart Strike) entered

2010 as the early Kentucky Derby (G1) favorite, but his penchant for troubled

trips proved costly earlier this season. He's avoided problems in his last two

outings, winning the Preakness (G1) and Haskell Invitational (G1), and established himself as the odds-on favorite for champion

three-year-old. And he'll make a strong case for Horse of the Year honors

with a victory in the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1).

Winner of the CashCall Futurity (G1) in mid-December, the Bob Baffert

trainee was caught in tight quarters and jumped heels entering the far turn in

his sophomore and dirt debut, the March 13 Rebel S. (G2) at Oaklawn Park, but

still managed to get up in deep stretch for a head win. He registered a 102 BRIS

Speed rating, his first triple-digit number, but went back to synthetic for his

final Kentucky Derby prep, the April 3 Santa Anita Derby (G1). After being

nearly stopped in his tracks on the far turn, Lookin at Lucky did well to finish

third that afternoon. It was the third troubled-trip in his last four starts.

He drew the rail in the Kentucky Derby, but the post didn't beat him; a

passive ride from Garrett Gomez did the trick. His best chance was to establish

early position before dropping back off the speed, as Calvin Borel perfectly

illustrated aboard SUPER SAVER (Maria's Mon), who was hustled from post 4

and then retreated to sixth on the clubhouse turn to sit a perfect stalking

trip. Gomez made no attempt to establish a forward position in the opening

furlong and Lookin at Lucky wound up inhaling mud behind a pack

of runners as they passed the wire the first time. After being shuffled all the way

back to 18th, the bay Kentucky-bred offered a strong rally to reach contention at the top

of the stretch but had nothing left for final furlongs, checking in sixth.

Baffert replaced Gomez with Martin Garcia in the Preakness

and misfortune stopped circling "Lucky" at Pimlico. He pounced from

midpack on the far turn, taking the lead as he entered the stretch, and after

repulsing a re-rally from pacesetter FIRST DUDE (Stephen Got Even),

Lookin at Lucky drew off in the final sixteenth to win by three-quarters of a

length.

Baffert freshened up Lookin at Lucky after the middle leg of the Triple

Crown, and the Karl Watson, Michael E. Pegram and Paul Weitman-owned colt came

back better than ever in the August 1 Haskell, winning professionally by four

lengths. The stalker easily overhauled First Dude, quickly accelerating to front

at the top of the stretch, and exited the 1 1/8-mile event as a serious Classic

contender. He earned a career-best 107 BRIS Speed rating as well as a 109 Late

Pace number.

My opinion of Lookin at Lucky changed following the Haskell. He rated well

below older horses like Zenyatta (Street Cry [Ire]) and Quality Road (Elusive

Quality) beforehand, but that's no longer the case. The fact is Lookin at Lucky

has improved in each of dirt starts, excluding his throw-out in the Kentucky

Derby, and is a candidate to keep progressing this fall. Three-year-olds can

make up a lot of ground on older horses at this time of the year, and Lookin at

Lucky is getting faster. He's also as honest as they come, winning eight of 11

starts. Give him a chance and he'll fight all the way to the wire.

The division leader came down with a slight fever after the Haskell, which

kept him at Monmouth Park for a few extra days, but he's back at Baffert's barn

in Southern California and is expected to return to the worktab soon. The 1

1/4-mile Classic distance appears well within his grasp, and Lookin at Lucky is

expected to remain against three-year-olds before his first meeting against

elders in the Breeders' Cup, with either the Pennsylvania Derby (G2) or Super

Derby (G2), both on September 25, as his final prep.

Haskell also-rans: The Haskell featured a deep field, with Derby

winner Super Saver and runner-up ICE BOX (Pulpit); Preakness runner-up

First Dude; and the exciting up-and-comer TRAPPE SHOT (Tapit). While none

proved a worthy adversary for Lookin at Lucky, all four horses loom as serious

contenders for the "Lucky"-less Travers S. (G1) on August 28.

Trappe Shot is a candidate for both the 1 1/4-mile Travers and seven-furlong

King's Bishop S. (G1). The Travers is more likely following his runner-up

Haskell finish, but the Dirt Mile could wind up being a better option this fall,

with an eye toward major route events in 2011.

Unplaced following a stumbling start in his career debut last August, Trappe

Shot broke his maiden when making his second career start at Gulfstream Park in

late February, winning by 10 1/4 lengths in a six-furlong event for

Florida-breds. The Kiaran McLaughlin runner defeated restricted company again

next out, scoring by 12 3/4 lengths in a 6 1/2-furlong allowance on March 21,

and then rolled to a four-length decision over open rivals in a seven-furlong

allowance on the Belmont S. (G1) undercard. The runner-up that afternoon,

TAHITIAN WARRIOR (Maria's Mon), has captured his next two starts in

impressive fashion and could make his stakes debut in the King's Bishop.

Trappe Shot made his two-turn and stakes bow in the July 10 Long Branch S. at

Monmouth Park, recording a comfortable 2 1/2-length decision over a soft group,

and offered a solid rally for runner-up honors in the Haskell. However, his BRIS

Speed ratings, which topped out at 109 in the aforementioned seven-furlong

allowance, have decreased in his last two starts as he's stretched out in

distance. His pedigree isn't an issue -- it's a matter of stamina at this point

for the inexperienced colt. The late bloomer has plenty of time to develop into

a serious Classic contender next year if he stays healthy.

First Dude, who hasn't won since breaking his maiden in late January, will

look to snap a six-race skid in the Travers. A one-paced third in the Blue Grass

S. (G1) in early April, First Dude switched tactics when making his next start

in the Preakness, establishing a quick opening half-mile in :46 2/5 in the 1

3/16-mile classic, and the front-running colt admirably held for second. Wheeled

back off three weeks rest in the 12-furlong Belmont S., the massive bay

regressed off his career-best performance but managed to save for third after

setting the pace. He would've run away with the final leg of the Triple Crown

with a repeat of his Pimlico effort.

First Dude gave up the lead after getting away with a moderate pace in the

Haskell, finishing third off the freshening, but he's eligible to move forward

in his second start off the break next time. There's other speed lining up

for the event, though, and it will be no surprise to see First Dude, who has

recorded four seconds and three thirds in nine starts, settle for another minor

award.

Florida Derby (G1) winner Ice Box has flopped badly in two starts since his

fast-finishing second in the Kentucky Derby. The late runner beat only three

horses when favored at 9-5 in the Belmont and reported home sixth in the

Haskell, never passing any rivals in the stretch despite getting a fast pace up

front. Trainer Nick Zito is hoping for a form reversal in the Travers, but Ice

Box was unplaced in two starts at the Spa last year.

Super Saver dropped his first two starts this year prior to the Kentucky

Derby, finishing a non-threatening third in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) and second

to the unheralded Line of David in the Arkansas Derby (G1), and wasn't flattered

by the 105 BRIS Speed rating (which compares unfavorably to past winners) that

he earned in the mud at Churchill Downs. With an eighth in the Preakness and a

fourth in the Haskell, he's in danger of being compared to Mine That Bird

(Birdstone) and Giacomo, recent Derby winners who are widely held in an

unfavorable light given the lack of success that followed.

The Travers couldn't be more important for Super Saver because there's

essentially no reason to keep pointing him toward this year's Classic if he

throws in another clunker. With that being said, I believe that Todd Pletcher

will have the WinStar Farm homebred fully cranked for his best and expect to see

the bay colt rebound with a much-improved performance.

Super Saver, who lost weight between the Derby and Preakness, had reason to

be short off the layoff last time and Pletcher said as much beforehand. His

recent comments have more upbeat as Super Saver works his way back to a peak

physical condition, and the Derby winner figures to be a little overlooked in

the wagering given that he was 6-1 fourth choice in the Haskell. Super Saver

will be in my Travers top three -- the main concern is whether he's fast enough

to win.

Jim Dandy runners: The July 31 Jim Dandy (G2) turned out to be a

repeat of a June 29 allowance race at Delaware Park in which A LITTLE WARM

(Stormin Fever) tracked pacesetter MINER'S RESERVE (Mineshaft) in

second before switching places in the stretch run. The rest of the field,

including favorite FLY DOWN (Mineshaft) and well-regarded Pegasus S. (G3) winner

AFLEET EXPRESS (Afleet Again), never made an impact from off the pace.

Louisiana Derby (G2) runner-up A Little Warm was excluded from the Kentucky

Derby due to insufficient graded earnings and missed the Preakness due to a

fever. Winner of the six-furlong Spectacular Bid S. on the opening weekend at

Gulfstream, the Tony Dutrow pupil finished a good second to D' Funnybone

(D'wildcat) in the seven-furlong Hutcheson (G2) next out. He's been able to

carry his form successfully to two turns so far, registering a respectable 104

BRIS Speed rating in the 1 1/8-mile Jim Dandy, but will be tested for stamina in

the Travers.

Out of an Alydar mare, A Little Warm can't be counted out because of the

distance, and the improving colt shows a 109 BRIS Speed rating for his allowance

score at 1 1/16 miles two back. He'll be forwardly-placed under John Velazquez

in the Travers and could be the one to catch when the field turns for home.

Miner's Reserve is likely headed to the King's Bishop for Zito, who already

has Ice Box and Fly Down committed to the Travers, and the three-year-old is

developing into a good candidate for the Dirt Mile in early November. He didn't

fare well when contesting the Derby Trial (G3) four starts back, but we'll give

him a pass due to the muddy conditions. The bay colt has registered BRIS Speed

ratings of 105-106-102 since then.

Fly Down, who broke his maiden at Churchill last November, opened 2010 with

an allowance win at Gulfstream in February but was given time off following a

disappointing ninth in the Louisiana Derby. He bounced back with a commanding

six-length score in the Dwyer S. (G2), leaving Drosselmeyer in his wake, but was

no match for the same rival when third in the Belmont S. Fly Down appeared

completely flat last time, coming under a ride early on the far turn, and he's

never earned big Speed numbers, with a career-best 101 for his runaway Dwyer. He

doesn't look fast enough to win the Travers.

Afleet Express is a different story. The James Jerkens runner netted a 113

BRIS Speed rating for an easy allowance tally three starts back and a 105 for

his commanding 1 3/4-length score in the 1 1/16-mile Pegasus. In the Jim Dandy,

he didn't receive a clean trip but offered a solid run for third, passing horses

in the stretch, and the Travers should set up better for the stalker. Jerkens

could've easily sent him to Monmouth for the Haskell -- the dark bay colt showed

an affinity for the track in the Pegasus -- but elected to stay at home and prep

for the main event on August 28. I like his chances on Travers Day.

Newcomer: At this point in 2000, three-year-old Tiznow was nowhere on

the Classic radar screen, and while none of this year's sophomores can be compared to the

future Hall of Famer, CONCORD POINT (Tapit) is an intriguing colt to keep an eye

on in the Baffert stable.

The gray colt finished second when making his stakes bow in the seven-furlong

Lazaro Barrera Memorial S. (G2) on May 22, and the winner, Smiling Tiger (Hold

That Tiger), came back to defeat older horses in the Bing Crosby S. (G1) in his

next outing. Concord Point went on to post a smashing 8 1/2-length decision in

the Iowa Derby (G3) on June 26, garnering a 105 BRIS Speed rating, and recorded

a more workmanlike one-length victory in the August 7 West Virginia Derby (G2),

winning the 1 1/8-mile event in wire-to-wire fashion.

The Travers remains an option for the improving colt, but Baffert will

probably keep him at nine furlongs for the Pennsylvania Derby or Super Derby,

choosing whichever spot doesn't have "Lucky." The Dirt Mile is a logical target

for him in the fall.

Sidelined: The three-year-old division lost a potential star when

ESKENDEREYA was retired less than a week before the Kentucky Derby, and

Belmont S. winner DROSSELMEYER (Distorted Humor) is out until at least

the winter.

The next edition of the Classic Diary will be in mid-September.