Fair Grounds Notebook

FAIR GROUNDS NOTEBOOK

DECEMBER 18, 2009

by Frank Cotolo

We should certainly call the preceding week an anomaly, with weather taking

out most of the Louisiana Champions Day races and the next day of racing.

The track stopped December 12's card with four races left to run due to the

storms in the late afternoon. (See below for rescheduling of Louisiana Champions

Day stakes and

review of our picks).

The National Weather Service recorded almost six inches of rain in the area

over a 30-hour period. Then on December 13, Fair Grounds canceled the

racing program because of bad conditions on the track surface while more rain

was predicted. The track maintenance crew spent Sunday restoring areas of the

main track that had washed away in the storms.

The track was listed sloppy again on Monday when racing ensued. By the time

it ended, the wretched weather had reduced the number of the week's races to 33.

The first two days were raced over a fast track, however, but the 19 races

those days befuddled most of the bettors and the public only chose two winning

favorites. Then, there were three on the abbreviated Louisiana Champions Day

program but two days later the

sloppy, sealed, track could only present one. In total, the public hit rate for the

week was a mere 18 percent.

SURFACE REPORT

Only main track action was seen through this strange week. And on the dirt,

dry or wet, staying close to the pace was the best strategy to win. While 39

percent of the winners raced with a quick measure of stalking, 33 percent went

wire-to-wire (at sprints and routes). Giving speed the benefit of both styles,

that means 73 percent of all winners had early foot.

Those winning off the pace, some from the clouds, so to speak, only amounted

to 27 percent. Ordinarily, we would suggest keeping an eye on those horses

defying a speed-favoring track but with the mixed bag of surfaces there is not

enough evidence to make it a positive point. As an example, two one-mile-and-40-yard

events on the sloppy December 14 surface were held one after another. In the first a

horse won from well off the pace and a wire-to-wire winner followed.

TRAINERS

Another survey for the strange week supports the anomaly. Only three trainers

were able to double over the four days of racing and a total of 29 conditioners

had winners.

Bret Calhoun, Merril Scherer, Michael Stidham and Clyde McKean doubled. Three

trainers sent out first-time starter winners: Stidham, Mike Burgess and Neil

Howard. Of the top winning-percentage trainers, Steve Margolis, Cody Autry, Wes

Hawley nor Eric Guillot saddled winners, while Ed Johnson, Scherer and Ken

Bourgeois added to their figures.

STAKES

On Saturday, Fair Grounds will present the Louisiana Champions Day races washed out the week before. Here is

a review of what we picked that was canceled on December 12.

The $150,000 Classic for three-year-olds and up is at 1 1/8 miles on the

main track. We like TAKIN' THE BULLET (Red Bullet).

In the $100,000 Ladies Sprint S. for three-year-olds and up goes at six furlongs and

MASTER LINK (Dance Master) looks great in her second race after a layoff. In

the $100,000 Turf H., going 1 1/16 miles on the green, our choice is HIGH TONED

(Zarbyev). In the $100,000 Sprint at six furlongs beware of FLASHY WISE CAT

(Catastrophe) and

don't be surprised if the four-year-old colt fires earlier than usual.

The day's features include the grassy Bonapaw S. for three-year-olds and up and the

Esplanade S. on the main track for fillies and mares three-year-olds and up, both 5

1/2 panels, as well as two events for freshman runners, the Letellier Memorial

S. for the gals and the Sugar

Bowl S. for the boys, both at six furlongs on the main track. These events are

worth $60,000 each.

HORSES TO WATCH

Thursday (12/10)

3RD -- JUMPIN FOR JASON (Jump Start) had an unnecessarily long trip, with a

few alternate moves, but finished fast to be second.

6TH -- ONESHOTAWAY (Holy Bull) was quickly away and holding well until

gracefully challenged, still finishing fourth at 7-1.

8TH -- AMUSING PLAN (Pleasantly Perfect) dueled to the death after making up some

ground leaving from the 10 post and still got third money just a neck back.

Friday (12/11)

2ND -- STEP N IT UP (Old Topper) was impressive at 34-1, getting into the

thick of the fray and holding for fourth.

4TH -- HOT ROD OVERTON (Catastrophe) dueled at two calls, strong for a 16-1

shot.

8TH -- CASPIAN (Tale of the Cat) is a bet back, winning with a threatening

stalk and then having plenty left at the wire.

Saturday (12/12)

4TH -- RENATA (Lone Star Cry) closed well in the mud at 7-1 and could be

ready to break her maiden at a sprint or a route.

Monday (12/14)

2ND -- IMPRESSIONIST (Strong Hope) is a rare one to break maiden at a route,

no less wire-to-wire, as a first-time starter, earning a bet-back status.

4TH -- LODE OF GOLD (Mutakddim) had good early foot at 6-1, not a heavy

choice but not ignored either, and the speed should sustain soon.