Fair Grounds Notebook

FAIR GROUNDS NOTEBOOK

FEBRUARY 11, 2010

by Frank Cotolo

Matching a strong week that delivered 45-percent winners for the public, Fair

Grounds also kept speed at bay last week, producing mostly off-the-pace winners,

in both sprints and routes, on the main track and turf, in the 40 races run.

It was fast from start to finish that week. We hope you read last week's

notebook and used the closing information to benefit. From the look of the statistics, many bettors got on

board and steered clear of backing top speed with conviction.

Calculating the most recent four weeks of racing, chalk has ruled with the public

choice's winning 49 percent of the 132 races.

On the surface

If the 51 percent of the overall winners that came from off the pace the

previous week impressed all of us, we were shocked from last week's tally of 70 percent.

A mere five races went to horses with a wire-to-wire journey and

most of those were sprinting around six panels.

Winning by stalking close to the pace (no worse than third and within a

couple of lengths of the leader) was only accomplished 15 percent of the time, which was the same

as the wire-to-wire winners.

There were seven turf races in the four-program week. Here, too, off-the-pace

strategies worked best, with 57 percent of the seven events -- three sprints and

four routes -- coming from fourth or farther back to cash the top prizes.

Trainers

Though Steve Asmussen took another five horses through the winners' circle in

four programs, his win rate has not risen enough to make the top-10 trainers

by win percentage.

The latest hero there is Victor Arceneaux. He saddled a first-out winner last week

and moved to the top of the list. Here are the top-10 Fair Grounds conditioners

by win percentage:

Victor Arceneaux		31
Steve Margolis		29
Edward Johnston		28
Tom Amoss		27
Bret Calhoun		24
Cody Autry		23
Merrill Scherer		22
Eric Guillot		21
Wes Hawley		21
Michael Stidham		21

Asmussen would be next with 17 percent, followed closely by Greg Foley (16),

Ron Werner (15), Eric Heitzman (15) and Michelle Lovell (15). You may want to

make note that Pat Mouton is winning at only 6 percent.

HORSES TO WATCH

Friday (2/5)

1ST -- SECRET BERRY (Supremo Secret) set the pace, led into the stretch and

did those things well despite being 12-1 and stopping on a dime in the stretch

of this one-mile and 40-yard event on the dirt.

2ND -- TENSAS CAT (Cat Thief) came home well enough in this bulky field to

secure third but

interfered with another in the drive and was placed eighth.

4TH -- STORMIN LEAKY (Lake Austin) is a first-time starter that had speed

enough to hold third after leading to the three-eighths at 6-1.

Saturday (2/6)

6TH -- MISS ACAPULCO (Malibu Wesley) dueled hard for the lead, allowing

the favorite to win. She's capable of better next time.

9TH -- STEVE'S STAR (Dynaformer) started slowly, drove four wide to get the

lead and was strong enough for a fifth finisher, at 6-1.

Sunday (2/7)

4TH -- COWBOY POKER (Erlton) ran around trouble, steadied at one point and

still came back to be second.

Monday (2/8)

7TH -- FASS FEAT (Placid Fund) had a heavy duel through three calls with two

different challenges to get second at 4-1.

9TH -- RED DAGGER (Friends Lake) went wire to wire against the bias in a

claimer and is a sharp bet-back possibility.