Handicapping Feature

HANDICAPPING FEATURE

FEBRUARY 23, 2008

Handicapping the races at Santa Anita with Handicapper's Report

by Steve McDonald

Handicapper's Report (HR) publishes Daily Clocker's Reports, Daily

Performance Ratings Reports and Weekly Trip Notes for Southern California. The

information in all of the reports taken together presents a valid representation

of the contenders in each race. We will show how we use the various reports

through some example races at Santa Anita on Saturday and Sunday.

When we first look at a race, we use the Daily Performance Ratings Report to

start isolating the contenders. Our Ratings are developed utilizing equations

developed specifically for each track in Southern California which emphasize the

importance of early and late fractions in determining the strength of a race. We

then develop unique variants for every race on each race day that produce the

most accurate comparative ratings available.

The ratings are designed to work across sprints, routes, main and turf races.

However, we have to use the breeding and other measures to modify our

expectations with lightly raced horses who are making a change of surface or

distance for the first time.

Our first focus will be on horses having the highest ratings from the most

recent races at the host track (including on the present surface, note the "t"

at the end of the rating identifying a turf race, and at the present distance,

note the "s" for sprint and "r" for route at the end of the rating). We will

compare those ratings to the PAR listed at the top which is the average rating

for this class and gender of race.

We then use the Daily Clocker's Report and references in the Trip Notes for

the contenders to further identify the horses we want to analyze in detail.

Often the workouts and trip notes will point to other horses to be included that

weren't on our first list of contenders just based on ratings.

Finally, we use more standard techniques to verify whether the numbers,

workouts and trouble lines are apt to be repeated in this race. Such techniques

include information available in the Brisnet Past Performances such as Pace,

Class, Trainer changes and tendencies, and medicine and equipment changes.

In using the Ratings Report, note the explanation on the top right of the

first page for each of the data columns listed for each horse.

Saturday at Santa Anita

RACE 1

FOREST PRINCE (7/2) Decent rating two-turning when according to our Trip

Notes, he made a crazy premature move against a decent three-year-old Signature

Move. He worked well prior to that race and has decent breeding for the downhill

run.

KILDERRY (5-1) and also-eligibles SPARTACO (15-1) and SUPERCARCHY (12-1) all

have Grade B works going into the race with SPARTACO having nice breeding for

the downhill run. Ignore his Grade B- last work. The last work prior to a first

start is often not a serious one and may have been without any training

medication.

RACE 2

SPORTS EDITION (5-2) and LADY DISDAIN (GB) (3-1) These two have the highest

last race HR Performance Ratings (97 and 94) with SPORTS' number exceeding the PAR

for the race by 1 point (approximately equivalent to a half-length).

RACE 3

Several of these have similar recent performance ratings on turf. However,

INDIAN SUN (9-5) has been running in the toughest races (note the ratings

numbers of the winners of his races in the last column of the ratings sheet).

Also, he received a trip note comment out of his last race that he was "begging

to go back to grass," where he got his highest performance rating (PR) of 108,

which dwarfs this field.

Use the others with PRs >100 underneath in the trifectas. One other trip note

on GRASBERG is that he got hot going to the post in his last, which came off a

102-day layoff (note the 102 in the sixth column in the ratings for his last

race).

RACE 4

NEW RULE (5-2) and CURRENCY TRADER (4-1) are both Horses to Watch from our

Trip Notes with equal 97 PAR PRs from their last races. However, there appears

to be some cheap speed in Midnight Cabinet to keep 'TRADER busy, and NEW RULE

finished second in his last two to the extra hot horse Trail Mix, so give him

the edge.

RACE 5

Open grab bag as is so often the case with first-level allowance runners on

turf.

WILD DIPLOMAT (3-1) comes off a nice effort, his first on the grass and could

continue to improve.

ONLY HIM (GB) (4-1) comes out of a sprint down the hill when he broke slow

and finished OK. Could go much better in second U.S. start. Keeps turf master

Rafael Bejarano.

TENT (Ire) (15-1) has the highest PRs, but often finds trouble, which is

usually a problem on the turf.

INCURABLE LOU (Arg) (30-1) has no PRs to recommend him, but received a nice

Grade B+ workout which was the "best he has looked in awhile." Worth a bomber

longshot bet.

RACE 6

Not much talent here. TOPPLER has had too many chances even though he has the

highest PR.

SAILBOAT SAM (5-2) showed some speed in his debut and had a nice Grade B

workout prior to that race where he "always looked to have more to give; a nice

6f." Upside potential.

JAMIESON (12-1) is a Horse to Watch whom our Trip Note writer expected to

improve with experience, distance and turf. Well, he gets more experience here,

but no distance or turf. However, he gets the big drop from straight maidens, so

who knows?

RACE 7

Another grab bag of turf marathoners where usually class tells.

SPRING HOUSE (5-2) is the only one to consistently run Grade 2-type PRs

recently and gets the nod. He also had a recent nice Grade B drill.

RACE 8

DRAFT CHOICE (2-1) has been a two-time Horse to Watch off his first two

starts. His last PR towers over these and is above par because this race is

limited to Cal-breds. The stinker that the winner of that race, Public Image,

threw in on Thursday is bit of a caution, however.

WARRENS A P STRIKE recorded a strong recent Grade B+ workout that was good

enough to make him a Fit and Ready lister for the week and may have more

improvement in him with Gomez climbing aboard. Firsters GENERAL BUFFET, CAFÉ

LINDO and ADHERE all have worked well for their debuts with the GENERAL getting

a Grade B+ and drawing Flores for Puype. Our clocker didn't catch FLIER MONEY on

any of his trips to Hollywood Park, but the John Sheriffs/Mike Smith combo is

always dangerous.

RACE 9

GUNSLICK (7-2) has the best recent set of PRs and while the last was his

worst recent number and for a claiming price of $16K, that was against open

claimers and the super tough Trail Mix. This is against restricted non-winners

of two lifetime. We know nothing about the trainer Battershell, but that should

only help the price.

Where to go next is a toss up. Invader FIGHTING WONDER had a nice Grade B+

workout followed by a poor work and often better is worse for these marginal

runners, but he may be the speed of the speed.

RACE 10

Looks like a two-horse race on numbers between second-time starter MAGIC

MIKE (6-1) and seven-time loser RAINGEAR (4-1), who has run two decent races in

his most recent. RIVER ROYAL (8-1) is an interesting possibility who dueled on a

fast pace according to the Trip Notes and will be tough against California-breds

which he gets today. His PR was OK for a first time starter.

Look for my Sunday analysis in the next issue!

Steve McDonald is the publisher of the Handicapper's Report