Handicapping Feature

HANDICAPPING FEATURE

Woodbine 2010 preview -- trainer analysis of 2009

by Art Parker

Being a TwinSpires.com member gave me an access to horse racing I always

wanted. One of the many things it offered was the ability to play many different

tracks. Eventually, I selected the ones I liked and avoided play at the others,

something you can't do when you are at the mercy of the scheduling director at a

simulcast center. Of the several tracks I favor none has grabbed my attention,

and affection, as much as Woodbine.

Does it sound strange that a guy from Alabama has made a Canadian track his

favorite? Sure. But I have good reasons for this choice. Woodbine offers several

things that appeal to me. It is one of the better tracks in North America. The

quality of racing is not on the level with Saratoga or Keeneland, but it rates

well above average. The Polytrack surface at Woodbine eliminates sloppy days on

the main track and seems to be fair. Perhaps the top reason I am attracted to

Woodbine is the length of the meet. The meet lasts slightly more than eight

months, which allows a player to keep notes with a large sample of races

available for research. It also gives the player a great opportunity to become

familiar with the cast characters.

Trainers are creatures of habit. Some come into a race meeting with their

guns loaded, while others take their time and run their horses into shape. When

a trainer wants to have quick success he/she will usually do what works best for

their barn and the best time to take note is in the early part of the meeting.

While circumstances of preparation may differ from horse to horse a trainer,

being human, is still likely to stick to as many successful habits as possible

when sending out horses hoping for victory. After the 2008 Woodbine meeting I

decided to make Woodbine my top track and that meant the 2009 season would

require the documentation of trainer moves. In order to kick off Woodbine 2010

with success, a good effort must be made to document the early part of the 2009

Woodbine meeting.

That's what I'm sharing with you -- the first 30 racing days of the 2009

Woodbine meeting with the hopes that you will be better prepared for 2010. The

first 30 days of 2009 were separated from detailed data extracted from the

entire meeting.

Here are the most successful trainers in the first thirty days of the 2009

Woodbine meeting and what to look for during your race analysis of their

entries. If you play Woodbine I hope this will help you in making selections.

Good luck!

Asmussen, Steve (Only jockey: Contreras)

He will win in almost any scenario, most are first or second time layoffs.

Almost all of his winners in the first 30 race days were class droppers. His

winners going up in class were moving from maiden special weight to allowance.

Couple of winners from Fair Grounds and a couple of winners were route-sprint

runners. Most important work out pattern will be five-furlong works or longer,

usually seven-nine days apart and exactly five days prior to race day.

Attard, Sid (No top rider. Used Husbands, Kabel, Wilson, Bahen, Da

Silva and Olguin)

Route-sprint runners did well early in the meet. No specific workout patterns

for trainer, but best bet is for works to be six-eight days apart with last work

seven days prior to race day.

Baker, Reade (Top riders: McAleney. Then: Da Silva. Small usage of

Beckon and Sutherland.)

Baker is an excellent layoff trainer. Most runners are worked five or six

times with works coming six-eight days apart. Most first layoff winners were

dropping in class and McEleney rode them. A few others were jumping up in class

and other riders got the call. Horses that were not first layoff usually worked

three times between races with a slight drop, and a trio of those were

Gulfstream shippers.

Bell, Dave (Top: either Wilson or Sutherland)

Watch out for route-sprint runners either first or second layoff. Look for

long works with the last work usually five-seven days prior to race day. Winners

are usually coming from the same class or a slight drop

Biamonte, Ralph (Tops: Fraser then DaSilva, Clark, Wyard)

First Layoff: Usually lots of works, often six times. Works are six-eight

days apart. Last work is either six or nine days from race day. Best sign is for

the last work to be "hot." Biamonte shipped a couple of winners from Penn

National.

Black, Ian (Top: either Fraser or Wilson)

Trainer is very good with first layoff horses even with those with extended

layoffs. Almost all winners were returning in the same class. Works almost

always six-seven days apart with the last work six-seven days prior to race day.

Best tip-off is a short "hot" work in the pattern.

Cappuccitti, Audre (Top: Ramsammy. Then: Sutherland, Johnson,

Husbands)

First layoffs work at least five times with works being five-seven days

apart. Last work is usually four-five days prior to race day. Long works are a

good sign his runners are ready. His second layoff runners are usually turned

around quickly, in 10-15 days after first running at Woodbine.

Carey, Julie (Top: Ramsammy. Then: McEleney)

Not a major threat but scored with several first layoff runners. Patterns are

scattered with works either six-seven days apart or seven-nine days apart. Last

work is usually five-seven days prior to race day.

Carroll, Josie (Top: Landry or Husbands)

Scores with a variety scenarios, but usually winners come back in same class.

Usually breezes horses six-seven days apart

Casse, Mark (Top: Husbands. Back up: Sutherland)

He is an outstanding trainer and a deadly combo with Patrick Husbands. Casse

used Fraser later in the meet but Husbands was his top man early in 2009. He is

effective with shippers, especially from Keeneland. Casse scored with several

route-sprint runners. He never reveals a set pattern but he almost always works

horses long at either 5 furlongs or 6 furlong. Most wins come with the last work

eight-12 days prior to race day. Not much class movement with Casse, who

obviously knows his horses competitive levels well. Scored with three debut

runners and two of those were two-year-olds. First timers that are ready will

usually show a couple of gate works.

Cerin, Vladimir (Top: either Olguin or Contreras)

All winners shipped from Southern California with no work patterns. Possible

tip-off is for the last work to be "hot" seven-eight days prior. His winners

were unraced for only about three weeks. Won races going up in class, dropping

down or running at the same class. Cerin showed up, hit them pretty hard and

then slacked off greatly after the first 15 race days.

Dipasquale, Sam (Top: Stein. Then: Sutherland, Kabel, Pizarro,

Ramsammy and Montpelier)

Most important fact about this trainer is that he will win either the first

or second time after a layoff, but usually without winning both. He had a couple

of runners that were route-sprints winners. First layoff runners had five or six

works and all worked six-eight days apart with the last work six-seven days

prior to race day. Most all works were long. Second layoff runners were usually

off 17-24 days and if they worked the effort was slow. Second layoff runners

were usually spotted in the same class.

Doyle, Michael (Top: Sutherland. Then: Montpellier)

Had a few first layoff runners and scored four times. Best pattern is works

coming six-seven days apart with the last work eight-nine days prior to race

day. Best tip-off is when the last work is long, at least five furlongs. Winners

almost always return in same class.

Farlie, Scott (Top: Husbands, Somsanith or Olguin)

A trainer that always seems to be on top of his game had five first layoff

winners, six second layoff winners and all others that didn't fall in a layoff

category were first time claims. Don't be surprised if first layoff horses have

gaps in training. Most works are eight-nine days apart. He usually doesn't work

horses very fast. First layoffs will either be in same class or class droppers.

Second time layoff runners will be back in 10-15 days with no work or in about a

month with multiple works, almost always in the same class. His first time

claims are back to the track fairly fast and go up in class.

Fehr, John (Top: Pizarro)

First layoff runners usually have long works often six-eight days apart. No

pattern otherwise. For those that are not first layoff runners there will be a

work six-eight days prior to race day.

Gonzalez, Nicholas (Used Beckon, Da Silva, Sabourin and Wilson)

First layoffs will work seven-nine days apart with last work six-eight days

prior to race day. Last work is often "hot." He is dangerous with second

layoffs, which usually come back in 14-21 days, without work and run in the same

class.

Jordan, Terry (Tops: McAleney)

He is an excellent trainer that is usually bet heavily with exceptional

success on first layoff horses. Compared to other trainers, Jordan spaces

workouts farther apart. Look for those workouts to be either six-seven days

apart or nine-10 days apart. Last work should be 8 or more days prior to race

day, with some as long as 13-14 days prior to race. Possible tip-off is for

works to be "hot" and then a rest before race. Runners normally return in same

class. Jordan's runners are usually very fit and their good looks can be seen

easily in the post parade.

McKnight, Norman (Top: Garcia or Sutherland)

First layoffs work six-seven days apart with last seven-eight days prior to

race day. Best tip-off is gate works. Shipped one winner from Penn National and

three winners were route-sprint runners. Second layoffs work nine-10 days prior

to race day or run back in about 12 days.

Pierce, Malcolm (Top: Husbands. Then: McEleney and Sutherland)

Trainer is most dangerous with second layoffs usually run back within

three-four weeks. Runners either work six-seven days apart and last work is

usually seven-eight days prior to race day. Works are usually four or five

furlongs. He brings horses back in same class or goes up. He had a couple of

winners that shipped from Fair Grounds.

Tiller, Robert (Top: Husbands and Pizarro. Then: Sutherland, Landry,

Da Silva and Fraser)

Trainer can win in any scenario. He was very hot with first or second layoffs

and debut runners. First layoff runners work nine-10 days apart, usually long,

with last work seven-10 days prior race day. He wins going up, dropping down or

in the same class. Second time layoff horses usually drop, come back in 12-25

days and often with no work. Look for the horse that a first race has a 

"protective evaluation" (intentionally run over his/her head and dodged a claim

ticket). Tiller had three debut winners that were not two-year-olds and two of

these were owned by Linmac. Debut runners will work nine-10 days apart with the

last work nine-12 days prior to race day.

Vella, Daniel (Top: Pizarro. Then: Landry and Callaghan)

First layoff horses will probably have "hot" works six-seven days apart with

last work six-seven days prior to race day with class drops. Second time layoff

runners will be back in two-three weeks with no particular work pattern, slight

drop or same class.