Handicapping Feature

HANDICAPPING FEATURE

MAY 3, 2006

Triple Crown Aspirations

by Rich Nilsen

It's been 28 years since we last saw a Triple Crown winner grace the American

racing scene. Twenty-eight years since Affirmed won the epic battle over the

determined closer Alydar in the three consecutive races that make up the Triple

Crown - the Kentucky Derby (G1), Preakness (G1) and Belmont Stakes (G1).

Needless to say it takes a very special animal to sweep the three coveted

races. There was a gap of 25 years between Citation's win in 1948 and

Secretariat's score that ended with his historic 31-length romp in the 1973

Belmont Stakes.

Several runners have come excruciatingly close to the Triple Crown. Real

Quiet came out of nowhere in 1998 to pull a mild upset in the Derby, followed by

a corroborating win in the Preakness. He led the entire length of the stretch in

the Belmont Stakes but was nailed in the final yards by Victory Gallop in one of

the most dramatic endings in racing history. Charismatic, Silver Charm and War

Emblem are three other recent stars who faltered late in the Belmont after winning the first two legs.

Of course, only one horse will have a chance for the sweep after May 6, so

let's take a brief look at what it takes to win the big race on Saturday.

Kentucky Derby

Every decade or so, there's an anomaly and a less-than-great horse wins the

coveted Run for the Roses. Last year was one of those years when longshot

Giacomo (Holy Bull) stepped up to the plate and knocked it out of the park. A pace meltdown

set the race up for this obscure longshot who may never win another race, at

least against top company.

Nine out of 10 times, the Kentucky Derby is won by a proven Grade 1

commodity. On his resume will be strong performances against the best runners in

the country. With few exceptions, the winner will have a Grade 1 win or placing

at 1 1/8 miles prior to the race.

Closely analyze each horse's past two races. Note the closing kick

demonstrated in each event. Brisnet.com offers a Late Pace rating in the past

performances, which accurately measures the finishing time of each and every

runner. The higher the figure, the faster the horse finished from the stretch

call to the wire.

To better analyze the pace scenario, I went into Custom PP Generator and

sorted the horses in order of speed points (sort order found under "Options")

before printing out the race. Here's a summary of the field based strictly on

running style and speed points:

Front-runners:

(E 8) Brother Derek, Sharp Humor, Sinister Minister

(E 7) Keyed Entry

Close Stalkers:

(E/P 7) Barbaro, Sweetnorthernsaint

(E/P 6) Bluegrass Cat, Lawyer Ron, Private Vow

(E/P 5) Bob and John, Deputy Glitters, Flashy Bull, Showing Up

Midpack Runners:

(E/P 3) A. P. Warrior

(P 5) Point Determined

Closers:

(P 3) Cause To Believe

(S 2) Jazil

(S 1) Storm Treasure

(S 0) Seaside Retreat, Steppenwolfer

This is a quick glance of the preferred runstyles for the Derby field and is,

in no way, any guarantee of how this race will play out. Taking it to another

level involves the use of BRIS Early Pace ratings and other factors.

Also, keep in mind that runners who were backing up in the prep races are not

likely to appreciate Churchill's long stretch. Horses that were finishing well

at the end of the prep races are the most dangerous entries on May 7.

Looking to hit it big on Derby Day? Who isn't! Here's one tip for filling out

your trifecta wagers. The top spots in this race are usually dominated by

closers with maybe one speed horse hanging on for a share. Front-runners have

finished in-the-money only three times in the past seven years, with War Emblem

being the only winner in 2002.

Give the final edge to the most consistent horse that has recently run a

career-best Speed rating. It's amazing how often the Derby winner

will be found at a nice price with a simple profile -- a three-year-old with

strong BRIS Speed ratings who appears to be rounding into top form.

Finally, get your wagers down early through BrisBET.com, then sit back and

enjoy another renewal of the Greatest Two Minutes in Sports.