Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

OCTOBER 17, 2014

by Dick Powell

Right after waking up Wednesday morning to learn the horrifying news that

17-year-old rider Juan Saez had died from his horrific injuries suffered in a

race Tuesday night at Indiana Grand, we come to find out that 19-year-old

Caitlin Forrest died in a racing accident in Australia at Murray Bridge near

Adelaide. And this was only a day after 26-year-old Carly-Mae Pye died in

Queensland in a barrier trial race at Rockhampton.

Juan Saez, brother to Luis Saez and cousin to Gabriel Saez and Angel Arroyo,

was an emerging star that seemed to be destined for greatness in the saddle.

Absolutely shocking that these three young riders would lose their lives doing

something they loved.

And this brings up an issue that we face every day when a light starts

blinking on the toteboard. I have said many times that I believed that the old

system of "a foul is a foul" is the best and that all riding infractions need to

be punished. 

One reason is that it is tough enough adjudicating an infraction but adding

the factor of whether or not it affected the race's outcome makes it open to too

much second-guessing. 

But the other reason is that racing is dangerous enough for the riders and

horses. In order to make it as safe as possible, stewards need to police the

sport as hard as they can. All fouls, whether in the deep stretch or in the back

of the pack, need to be punished.

What is on my mind is how Junior Alvarado can only be given a 15-day

suspension by the New York stewards after what he did in the Jockey Club Gold

Cup (G1) when he dropped over on Wicked Strong (Hard Spun) and caused Rajiv

Maragh to be unseated and almost trampled by the trailing horses.

Alvarado had no outside pressure when he shifted inwards with his mount,

Moreno (Ghostzapper), causing Wicked Strong to clip heels and unseat Maragh. It

is a minor miracle, considering the events of this week, that Maragh was able to

suffer ONLY a broken arm. When he went down, it looked much worse.

Fifteen days is not enough of a message for the stewards to send not only to

punish reckless riding but act as a deterrent towards riders pushing the

boundaries of safety. Ours is a rough sport with competitors looking for every

advantage and they need to know that safety violations will be treated with the

harshest of penalties.

Turf racing at Belmont continues with as many as six races run on the two

courses each day; weather permitting. A statistic has emerged this year that

makes no sense, but needs to be considered when making selections.

There have been 26 races run on the Widener turf course going one mile. Not a

single horse has been able to win going gate to wire. The speed bias is a paltry

33 percent and the average distance that the winner is behind at the first call

is 4.3 lengths. 

I know the Widener at times can favor wide sweepers, which results in speed

horses getting swallowed up in the stretch, but 26 races is a decent sample.

Last year, there were 23 races run on the Widener turf course going one mile and

26 percent of them were won going gate to wire. 

This year, the rail has won only 4 percent of the time. Last year, it was a

more normal 13 percent. So inside speed horses going a mile on the Widener turf

course are at a huge disadvantage. When the action switches to Aqueduct on

October 29, look for these horses coming back on the turf on a course where

every race is run going two turns and inside speed is not a bad thing.

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