Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

AUGUST 23, 2013

by Dick Powell

The Travers Stakes (G1) might be the marquee event on Saturday at Saratoga

but for hardcore handicappers, the King's Bishop (G1) will be the ultimate

challenge. Fourteen sophomore colts were entered on Wednesday and you can

analyze it for four days and not be any nearer to a conclusion. It's just that

tough.

The morning line favorite is Forty Tales. He's been on a roll since winning

the Derby Trial (G3) going a one-turn mile and looked good winning the Woody

Stephens (G2) going this distance when he rallied against a pronounced speed

bias and won going away.

The Todd Pletcher trainee came back here last out and won the Amsterdam

Stakes (G2) going 6 1/2 furlongs when he ran the field down in the last furlong.

As good as he is, how he is going to rally from off the pace against 13 rivals

is a question I can't answer. If he has to go wide, he'll lose ground as well as

momentum. If he saves ground, he will have to get lucky to sneak through traffic

to unleash his potent kick.

With the favorite vulnerable due to the circumstances of the race, where do

we turn? Speed has been tremendous at this year's meet in the seven-furlong

races with a speed bias of 77 percent and 29 percent of the 31 races have been

won gate to wire. So which speed horse in the King's Bishop can take best

advantage of the prevailing bias?

There are at least four starters that will vie for the lead. From the inside

out, Majestic Hussar, Let Em Shine, Mentor Cane and No Distinction all have good

early speed and their riders will be looking to secure an advantage out of the

gate.

Mentor Cane looked like a King's Bishop horse when he broke his maiden at

Belmont going 6 1/2 furlongs then was used hard from post 1 last out before

weakening in the Amsterdam. He has trained well since then and draws right in

the middle.

Majestic Hussar won going gate to wire on a sloppy track down at Gulfstream

Park going seven furlongs when he held off Palace Malice. He returned off a long

layoff here with a sharp win going six furlongs and Jose Lezcano will have to

use him hard to keep the outside speed horses from coming over on him.

Let Em Shine went gate to wire three races in a row out in California

including a stakes win against minor stakes foes going this distance at

Hollywood Park. He tired last out when he gunned to the front from post 11

before weakening in the Woody Stephens. He looks to be the fastest of the fast

in here with new rider Mike Smith. His presence essentially removes any

possibility of a modest pace as his only chance is to try to bust the race wide

open down the backstretch.

With the pace expected to be hot and contested, it looks like a closer can

win it. Forty Tales has the possibility of getting into traffic or a wide trip

so that leaves me with Central Banker and Declan's Warrior looking like they can

best take advantage.

Nick Zito almost won this race last year with Fort Loudon and could be tough

again with Declan's Warrior. He just missed in the Woody Stephens when he had a

rough trip from post 1 and then raced evenly in the Amsterdam. He should benefit

from a race over the track and draws well with Johnny Velazquez.

Out at Del Mar, the Pacific Classic (G1) will be run with a sense of déjà vu.

Last year's top three finishers are all back for another go round and there's

little to suggest that the outcome will be any different. Last year, Dullahan

rallied from far back to nail Game On Dude in the shadow of the wire with

Richard's Kid back in third.

This year, Dullahan's form coming in doesn't seem that strong but when you

look back to last year, it's not a whole lot different. He had a nice prep in a

Grade 3 turf race at Arlington Park going 10 furlongs and he should be a stretch

factor again.

Despite doubts about Game On Dude's ability to go 10 furlongs, a look at his

record at the distance shows four wins in nine tries with his highest BRIS Speed

rating coming in last year's Hollywood Gold Cup(G1). He has prospered since Mike

Smith was added, winning five straight races and relaxing better than ever, but

Smith will be in New York to ride Royal Delta on Sunday and Joel Rosario takes

over the mount.

Richard's Kid is getting long in the tooth at age eight, but he won the

Cougar II Handicap (G3) last out going 1 1/2 miles at Del Mar and on his best

day he merits a big shot.

I look for Dullahan to come back and run the same race as last year and run

them down in the stretch with new rider Rafael Bejarano. He's a proven

10-furlong horse, loves synthetic tracks and it looks like Dale Romans has him

peaking at the right time.