Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

FEBRUARY 8, 2008

by Dick Powell

Have to give Gulfstream Park and its president, Bill Murphy, credit for

immediately addressing the turf rail position issue that I raised last week

here. It was the lead of my column last week, it has been fixed, and the fact

that they fixed it immediately merits the lead of this week's column.

I haven't always been a fan of racetracks putting many of their major stakes

races together on one day. As great as that one day of racing might be, the

other weekends that would have had a major stakes race are usually hurt. If the

weather is bad on that big day of racing, it hurts even more.

But Saturday's sensational Louisiana Derby Preview Day will be the exception

for me as Fair Grounds has attracted challenging fields for all six stakes

races.

Even though there is an all-stakes Pick 6, I'll focus on the all-stakes Pick

4 that begins in the 6TH race with the Mineshaft H. (G3). The 1 1/16-mile race is

for older horses on the main track and GRASSHOPPER (Dixie Union) will probably

be the heavy favorite off seconds in the Travers S. (G1) and Super Derby (G2) in

his last two starts.

He's been off for 140 days but Neil Howard wins 22 percent in that spot and

he won his seasonal debut last year off an even longer layoff. If he runs back

to his career-best BRIS Speed rating of 111 that he earned in the Travers, he'll

be hard to beat here -- especially from post 2 and not heavily weighted.

MAGNA GRADUATE (Honor Grades) has earned more than $2.3 million in his career but

he's now six. On his best day he fits with these and he did his best racing at

the beginning of last year. His works at Palm Beach Downs for Todd Pletcher

indicate he's ready for a big effort. SILVER LORD (Unbridled's Song) is a

dangerous, lightly raced Steve Asmussen charge who has won both his two-turn

starts here including the Louisiana H. last out in fast time.

The 7TH race is the Fair Grounds H. (G3), a nine-furlong turf event for older

horses. BETTER TALK NOW (Talkin Man) won a Grade 1 last year at the age of eight

and makes his seasonal debut off a 105-day layoff for Graham Motion, who sports a

23 percent win rate in this spot. In 2006, he won the Dixie S. (G2) off an

even longer layoff, so he's shown in the past that he can come out firing

bullets at the start of his season. The sand-based Stall-Wilson turf course can

be quirky for some horses, but Better Talk Now has shown over the years an

ability to run over any going.

The main competition in the Fair Grounds should come from BABY FIRST (Fr)

(Enrique), who was a listed stakes winner in France going longer two years ago.

He showed up for his American debut at Santa Anita three weeks ago and he

rallied off a slow pace to get second in a high-class allowance event going

today's distance. He's listed at 15-1 in the morning line and based on his

French form should love this course.

DAYTONA (Ire) (Indian Ridge) is the second choice on the morning line, having

won three straight graded stakes on the turf in Southern California in his last

three starts, including the Hollywood Derby (G1) two starts back. His trainer,

Dan Hendricks, is 0-for-28 with shippers and all his turf wins came on firm turf

in California.

The third leg of the all-stakes Pick 4 is the Silverbulletday S. (G3), a 1

1/16-mile event for three-year-old fillies on the main track. It attracted the

champion juvenile filly from last year, INDIAN BLESSING (Indian Charlie), who is

undefeated in four starts. The Bob Baffert trainee won the Breeders' Cup

Juvenile Fillies (G1) last October in a sea of slop at Monmouth Park then came

back to win the Santa Ynez S. (G2) last out when she zipped seven furlongs in

1:19.89.

I'm not saying that Indian Blessing is vulnerable on Saturday, but her stride

shortened dramatically in the Santa Ynez after running an unbelievable 1:07.14

for the first six furlongs. I know Santa Anita has been a bit glib recently

(tongue planted firmly in cheek), but this was probably not the way that Baffert

wanted her to begin the year.

If she is vulnerable, PROUD SPELL (Proud Citizen) could be the one. She was

three-for-three last year before running second to Indian Blessing in the

Juvenile Fillies when she was wide from post 10. She makes her seasonal debut

for Larry Jones, and even though she did not have the benefit of a prep like

Indian Blessing did, she shows up here fresh and ready.

JOLIE THE CAT (Tale of the Cat) and MISS MISSILE (Golden Missile) are both

speedballs who should affect the early pace and keep Indian Blessing company

while ABSOLUTELY CINDY (Arch) is a one-dimensional closer who makes her dirt

debut.

Finally, the Risen Star S. (G3) wraps up the Pick 4 and Pick 6 in the 9TH

race.

A 1 1/16 mile-event for three-year-olds on the dirt, this year's edition

attracted a field of 11 after trainer Todd Pletcher withdrew CHECK IT TWICE

(Repent). PYRO (Pulpit) was second last year in the Champagne S. (G1) and

Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) to two-year-old champion War Pass (Cherokee Run). A grandson of A.P. Indy out of a Wild Again mare, he's certainly bred to go two

turns on the dirt.

If you are only as good as the company you keep, Pyro merits heavy

favoritism. He raced against War Pass three times last year and has been

training each week at Fair Grounds for Asmussen with last year's Horse of

the Year Curlin (Smart Strike). His BRIS Speed ratings improved with each start

last year and his late running style should fit Fair Grounds' long stretch.

BLACKBERRY ROAD (Gone West) had no shot rallying from far back going a mile

here last out in the Lecomte S. (G3). With the short stretch of one-mile races

ending at the sixteenth-pole, he did well to get second while running wide most of the way. A

half-brother to juvenile champion and hot sire Vindication, he has prospered

since stretching out to two turns on dirt and he draws the rail with Calvin Borel.

Z FORTUNE (Siphon [Brz]) won the Lecomte by almost three lengths in his last start,

but draws post 11. It's hard for me to imagine he'll run back to that effort.

My strategy will be to toss some of the favorites on my tickets while trying

to protect myself in case logic rules. On my main ticket, I'll play #5 Silver

Lord and #6 Magna Graduate, with #6 Baby First and #8 Daytona, with #5 Proud

Spell and #7 Indian Blessing, with #2 Blackberry Road and #8 Pyro. That ticket

will cost $32 and covers me at the end of the ticket. To protect myself, I'll

also play a Pick 4 with #2 Grasshopper and #5 Silver Lord, with #5 Better Talk

Now and #6 Baby First, with # 7 Indian Blessing, with #2 Blackberry Road and #8

Pyro for $8.