Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

JULY 11, 2008

by Dick Powell

I like to watch horses in the post parade to see how they are behaving before

they race. It's an inexact science -- witness BIG BROWN (Boundary) in the

Belmont S. (G1) and two fillies at Hollywood Park last Saturday.

In the Belmont, Big Brown did not look good before the race and ran poorly.

In Saturday's Vanity H. (G1), ZENYATTA (Street Cry [Ire]) could not have looked

worse. With her undefeated record of five wins in five starts, she was washed

out in the post parade pretty bad.

It was a hot day at Hollywood on Saturday and many starters were wet going to

the starting gate. But besides being very wet, she was acting strange while Mike

Smith walked her. She had her hind legs very far apart and a couple of times

bounced on them as if she was prancing. I know I am not describing what Zenyatta

was doing very well, but it was so unusual that I had my wife, an accomplished

horsewoman and the expert on all things horsey in this house, look at it and she

thought it was odd too.

Carrying 124 pounds, I'm thinking Zenyatta's winning streak was about to end.

Silver Z (Cee's Tizzy) gunned to the front and opened up a 10-length lead in the

1 1/16-mile contest. Smith had Zenyatta in fifth on the outside about 12 lengths

back after a half in :46.16. Silver Z continued to pour it on and with a third

quarter in :23.75, she still was eight lengths in front.

Zenyatta and the rest of the closers were coming on strong and Smith kept

Zenyatta clear on the outside. Aaron Gryder saved ground aboard Tough Tiz's Sis

(Tiznow) but when the pace backed up into her turning for home, he had to hit

the brakes at a critical juncture. Zenyatta kept going on the outside, took the

lead and then started goofing around. Her ears were going back and forth, and

Tough Tiz's Sis was coming on again.

Zenyatta maintained her half-length lead through the final furlong and

extended her win streak to six. Despite being very washy going to the gate and

acting strange, she showed that class can overcome just about anything.

A few races later in the American Invitational Oaks (G1), favorite PURE CLAN

(Pure Prize) looked very hot in the paddock. She came out on the track and her

copper coat was gleaming on a hot day. Not as washy as Zenyatta, it still looked

like Pure Clan was going to be vulnerable, which might have been wishful

thinking on my part.

Lately, I have written a lot about European racing. Maybe more than what you

wanted to know. And I have anointed ZARKAVA (Zamindar) as the best

three-year-old filly in the world. So when a horse shows up over here that ran

well behind her I stand up and take notice.

Satan's Circus (Gone West) has had an unusual career so far. A daughter of

Gone West out of a stakes-winning Storm Cat mare, she began her career last year

in May with three starts at relatively small tracks in France. After a brief

break in July and August, she ran well in two starts at Chantilly and Deauville

to finish her juvenile season. This year, she won an allowance race at Bordeaux

and then a listed stakes race at Toulouse. From there, she went to the Prix de

Diane (G1) at 10 1/2 furlongs and she ran fifth, beaten seven lengths by Zarkava,

who was brilliant that day.

Being only a listed stakes winner and unplaced in her only group stakes

effort, Satan's Circus was dismissed at 14-1 odds. But her effort against

Zarkava was solid and her pedigree suggested that she should be able to handle

the firm going at Hollywood Park. If you know how good Zarkava is, you had to

give Satan's Circus a chance at 10 furlongs on firm turf. Plus, she looked great

before the race!

A field of 12 entered the gate for the American Oaks and there was lots of

traffic when the first quarter only went in :24.02. Rider Ioritz Mendizabal had

Satan's Circus in perfect position in the second tier while Julien Leparoux took

Pure Clan back as expected from post one.

One reason I left Pure Clan out of my Pick 6 ticket was that I thought that

she would get shuffled back from post one and then have to circle the field to

get into contention. Well, she got shuffled back, but the crafty Leparoux was

able to get into contention down the backstretch by picking off horses while

down on the inside.

Around the far turn, Mendizabal had to make his move and he went up on the

outside of the leaders. Leparoux continued to save ground and when the field

straightened out for Hollywood long stretch, Pure Clan still had no room to run.

Satan's Circus took the lead with less than a furlong to go, but it was

short-lived as the hole finally opened up and Pure Clan exploded through to win

going away.

This story could have had a happy ending had Pure Clan not found room or if

she was truly washed out going to the gate. With a three-day carryover in the

Pick 6, it paid $12,827. Had Satan's Circus won at 14-1, the headline to the

story would have been, "Man wins $100,000 Pick 6 at Hollywood Park by following

European racing." I had the other five but left Pure Clan out.

Speaking of Hollywood Park's Pick 6, the amount of money bet into it

continues to be staggering. Yet, we have been told that the Pick 6 is mostly for

big bettors and that big bettors do not like betting races on synthetic tracks.

When I read various racing blogs, I see a lot of comments like "if track X

installs a synthetic track I'll never bet on them again." Yet, somehow,

Hollywood's Pick Six is gigantic and Del Mar's will be even bigger.

With the lure of a three-day carryover of $1.19 million, almost $3.8 million

was bet into it on Saturday. The next day, with no carryover and many licking

their wounds, the Pick 6 pool was an astounding $340,072. Perhaps betting on

races run over synthetic tracks is our version of reality TV -- nobody admits

they watch but the ratings are high.