Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

SEPTEMBER 24, 2010

by Dick Powell

The Breeders' Cup continues to make it easier for foreign horses to be able

to race in its Championship weekend, so whether you like it or not, you'll be

handicapping and wagering on more foreign horses than ever before. Without going

into the details, more spots are going to be reserved for winners of selected

foreign races, their eligibility to race in the Breeders' Cup has been relaxed

and travel stipends are now available.

I follow international racing anyway, but at least now there's an increased

chance that my efforts will be rewarded. Coupled with my fascination with

pedigrees as a handicapping tool, this year's Breeders' Cup should be right up

my alley. We'll see.

***

HIGH CHAPARRAL (Ire) has very quietly become a world-class sire;

at least in the Northern Hemisphere. In the Southern Hemisphere, he is all the

rage with many Group 1 winners racing primarily in Australia and New

Zealand.

Just like fellow hot sires GALILEO (Ire) and MONTJEU (Ire), who also stand at Coolmore,

he is a son of the great miler Sadler's Wells that won multiple group 1 stakes at 1

1/2 miles. Winner of the

Racing Post Trophy (Eng-G1) as a juvenile, he came back at three to win the Epsom

Derby (Eng-G1) and the Irish Derby (Ire-G1).

High Chaparral ran third in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1) before coming

to Arlington Park to contest the Breeders' Cup Turf (G1) over a very heavy turf

course. Running on sheer determination, he was able to win it despite hating

every step and was crowned champion turf horse in the United States as well as

being voted the top-rated 1 1/2-mile horse in Europe.

At four, High Chaparral came back to win the Irish Champion S. (Ire-G1) and

was third again in the Arc. At the end of a long career, he came to Santa Anita

and despite 100 degree temperatures, was able to dead-heat for the win with

Johar on a very firm turf course.

His European stud career has been solid with 10 individual Group stakes

winners. But it has been Down Under where High Chaparral's offspring have

shined. His first crop down there from the years he stood in New Zealand include

MONACO CONSUL, winner of the Victoria Derby (Aus-G1) and Spring Champion S. (Aus-G1); SHOOT OUT, winner of the Australian Derby (Aus-G1) and Randwick Guineas (Aus-G1); and SO YOU THINK, winner of the Cox

Plate (Aus-G1) and last week's Underwood S. (Aus-G1).

One of the reasons for High Chaparral's success Down Under has been his

offspring's ability to handle firm ground. Australia has been in a seven-year

drought, especially the state of Victoria, and many of their races are contested

on firm ground. Even though he won one of his Breeders' Cup Turfs on a soft turf

course, he did his best running on firmer ground and it has shown with his

offspring. They have more than enough class to handle soft ground but it is on

firm ground that they are at their best.

***

Last Sunday saw the running of the 1 1/2-mile Northern Dancer Turf S. (Can-G1)

at Woodbine. The race attracted REDWOOD (GB) (High Chaparral [Ire]), winner of

the Glorious S. (Eng-G3) at Goodwood going 1 1/2 miles, who is from the red-hot Juddmonte Farms

operation.

The Woodbine turf course was listed as firm on Sunday and sure enough,

despite sitting behind a very slow pace, Redwood was able to rally up the inside

and win going away with a final quarter that was approaching :23 flat. It

wasn't the greatest field of turfers ever assembled, but it showed how pedigree

can be a dominating factor in handicapping. It is unclear at this time whether

or not Redwood will contest the Breeders' Cup Turf. Juddmonte also owns

WORKFORCE (King's Best) who won the Epsom Derby this year and is being pointed

for the Arc, with a possible trip to Churchill if all goes well.

The Woodbine Mile (Can-G1) was run two races later and unlike the Northern

Dancer, this race attracted a stellar field. The betting public decided to stay

with the Juddmonte juggernaut and made their Famous Name (GB) (Dansili [GB]) the tepid

29-10 favorite based on four Group stakes wins in Europe over various ground

conditions. Second in the wagering was The Usual Q. T. (Unusual Heat) whose only

previous venture outside of southern California was a good fourth in the Dubai

Duty Free (UAE-G1) at Meydan in March, but is a multiple Grade 1 stakes

winner.

COURT VISION (Gulch) has had a tough year with three seconds in Grade 1

company before being beaten going 10 furlongs at Belmont when stuck down in

traffic in a paceless race. Even though his best distance is a mile, he was

dismissed at 7-1 odds which looked pretty generous when he stormed from far back

to win going away over a very game The Usual Q. T.

The top two will certainly be major factors in the Breeders' Cup Mile (G1) at

Churchill Downs, but it's hard to judge the rest as the 13-horse field led to

many traffic trips.