Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

DECEMBER 28, 2007

by Dick Powell

Come on, admit it. You liked JOHNNY EVES (Skimming) a little bit in the

Malibu S. (G1) at Santa Anita, but you thought he would go gate to wire and not

stalk a hot pace.

Johnny Eves is a Cal-bred that came into the Malibu with no graded-stakes

form. His lone attempt against stakes company was against older Cal-breds two

starts back when he tired badly after being rushed up from post 1 due to a poor

start. In his last start, Johnny Eves won going away at Hollywood Park in very

fast time going 6 1/2 furlongs after setting a torrid pace.

Unless you thought Santa Anita's Cushion Track was going to favor speed on

Opening Day, it was hard to take Johnny Eves seriously.

But, of the 14 three-year-old males contesting the Malibu, Johnny Eves had

the highest career-best BRIS Speed rating -- a paltry 102 -- indicating that

despite its competitive balance, this year's Malibu lacked quality. Usually, at

the end of their sophomore season, sprinters are earning some big Speed figures,

but this group had only four starters that ever broke 100. The handicapping

lesson here is to handicap the race before doing the horses in it.

At the start, Mike Smith sent E Z Warrior (Exploit) to contest the pace with

Desert Code (E Dubai) rushing up from post 1 to join him. David Flores had

Johnny Eves three wide on the outside and was able to relax from there. After a

first quarter in :22.04, the leading trio poured it on with a :22 second

quarter.

Johnny Eves asserted himself midway around the far turn and it was at this

point that Flores, who won all three stakes on Opening Day, won the race. Horse

Greeley (Mr. Greeley) was making a strong four-wide move and Flores was not

going to wait. Despite never winning beyond 6 1/2 furlongs in his career, Flores

broke the race open with extreme confidence. When Horse Greeley's rally began to

flounder at the eighth pole, it was just a matter of who was going to run

second.

Jose Valdivia Jr. had Carrilero (Arg) (Royal Academy) in a furious rally

between horses and he came out of the pack to be the lone danger to the leader.

Running on the wrong lead, as horses often do in the deep stretch on synthetic

tracks, Carrilero's late rally came up a length short at 42-1. It was

Carrilero's first start on a synthetic racing surface after his previous three

North American starts came on turf. Horse Greeley finished another 1 1/2 lengths

back in third.

The $2 exacta paid $902.40 with the $1 trifecta paying $8,831 and the $1

superfecta paying $120,856. Johnny Eves, despite any experience against graded

stakes foes, was bet down to 11-1 odds.

The final time for this year's Malibu was 1:21.08; pretty good at first

glance but consider that the second race, the California Breeders' Champion

Stakes for juveniles, went the same seven furlongs in 1:20.37 with a slower

pace. After the race, winning trainer Jay Robbins was hesitant about committing

to the longer races in the Strub Series for foals of 2004. But, for now, he has

a Grade 1 stakes-winning sprinter on his hands. Being a Cal-bred, we could see

Johnny Eves in the Sunshine Millions next time out.

The filly equivalent of the Malibu, the La Brea S. (G1), will be run this

Saturday going the same distance. Similar to this year's edition of the Malibu,

the La Brea attracted a full field of 14 with only one filly earning a BRIS

Speed rating greater than 100. FRISK HER (Officer) won a minor stake last out on

the Aqueduct inner dirt track by a nose while earning a BRIS Speed rating of

105. She has good tactical speed and a proven ability to win close races. She

will probably be the horse to beat.

The only two graded stakes winners in the La Brea are ASHLEY'S KITTY (Tale of

the Cat), winner of the Railbird S. (G3) last May at Hollywood Park going this

distance, and SINDY WITH AN S (Broken Vow), winner of the Safely Kept Breeders'

Cup (G3) two starts back at Laurel.

I'm going to go with LOOK DEEP (Petionville). She won a Pennsylvania-bred

stakes at Presque Isle Downs two starts back in good time then was an even

fourth from post 12 last out at Keeneland. She trains at Santa Anita for Julio

Canani and looks like the type of late-developing filly that is always dangerous

at a price.

The horse-for-course theory held up well early Sunday morning when MATSURIDA

GOGH (Sunday Silence) upset the Arima Kinen (Jpn-G1) at odds of 52-1 before

110,000 fans at Nakayama Racecourse. With a purse of more than $3.3 million, the

Arima Kinen is Japan's most popular race. Voting of the fans determine 10

starters in the race with the rest left to selected foreign runners, and

Japanese horses automatically picked in the order of earnings during the season.

After several vote getters did not run, Matsurida Gogh drew into the race and

showed again how much he loves Nakayama Racecourse where he has won multiple

times. He tracked the early leaders in third, took over in the stretch, and held

off super filly Daiwa Scarlet (Agnes Tachyon) by 1 1/4 lengths, who beat her

three-quarters brother, Daiwa Major (Sunday Silence), by 2 1/2 lengths

In the separate North American pool, Matsurida Gogh was dismissed at 261-1

odds. The wagering on the Arima Kinen alone was $393 million with $468 million

bet on the Sunday card throughout Japan. You got to love international racing.