Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

JANUARY 16, 2009

by Dick Powell

The Dubai International Racing Carnival opened on Thursday and will

continue on most Thursdays for the next eight weeks, with two days of Friday

racing on February 6 and 20. The Carnival takes a break after March 5 when many

of the horses leave to make way for those that will compete on Saturday, March

28, when the Dubai World Cup (UAE-G1) is run.

In the meantime, the Carnival offers players a great opportunity to bet on

big fields with generous payoffs. The average field size the past two years is

more than 10 horses per race and often times there are 16 horses in the starting

gate.

Free past performances are available at www.twinspires.com and you will see

many familiar names and pedigrees. All the major account wagering sites will be

simulcasting this year's Carnival and you can watch the races on streaming video

or satellite TV.

I go to the www.emiratesracing.com web site for most of my information. On

the far right column is a link for race videos where you can watch any race the

past year in Dubai. When you click on a blue button on the calendar, it will

take you to that day's races at Nad al Sheba. There you can find full color

program pages that vividly display each horse's silks. But, more importantly,

each horse's international rating is listed, giving you a comparative way of

looking at horses you might not be familiar with. Many of the horses in the

Carnival have already competed in Dubai this winter and much information is

available on these races.

If you click on a horse's name, it will bring you to a pop-up which will list

all the races that horse has competed in Dubai. When you click on the date of

the race, it will take you to the chart of that race which also has supplemental

information like a steward's report that gives details of every imaginable event

in the race and a comment section that gives a description of each horse's

effort.

Like last year, this year's Carnival figures to be a battle between the

competing juggernauts of Saeed bin Suroor and Mike de Kock. Most of bin Suroor's

horses are owned by Godolphin, and de Kock's main owner is Sheikh Mohammed bin

Khalifa Al Maktoum. Both had great meets last year and both are loaded this

year. The value in many races that they both show up in is looking for live

horses from neither stable.

Each year, the horses that have shipped in from South America seem to have a

conditioning edge in the first few weeks of the Carnival. Some are still owned

by their original owners and they have been trained to the max to have them

ready for a big effort and a possible sale to local interests. Many times the

European shippers might need a start under their belts to be at their best.

Races are run on turf and dirt (fibre sand), and there are a few pointers that

can help you out. The kickback on the dirt track can be pretty severe and it's

not unusual for riders to steer their mounts way to the outside to avoid it.

Even though there is significant ground loss, many horses are better off being

wide than being in behind horses while saving ground. Thus, when handicapping

dirt races, I would not penalize a horse's chances too much that draws a wide

post. Last year we saw a succession of wide-trip winners from outside posts.

Considering the fact that many horses do not run well when in behind horses,

forwardly placed horses do well on the dirt even if they are losing ground on

the outside. The trap you can fall into is watching the video of a past race and

thinking that the horse on the inside had an advantage when three or four horses

are vying for the lead. The reality is that the horse on the outside could have

the edge despite losing ground.

The turf course plays very fair. Even in the desert, it is lush and green and

is never firm since its composition makes it somewhat spongy. Saving ground is

important on it, and it takes a rider's skill and experience to know when to make

their move in the nearly three-furlong home straight. Riders have to maintain

their composure even when challengers are beginning to rally from behind. With

the usual full fields, race-watching skills are at a premium so take advantage

of all that's available on the web site.

If you are willing to pay attention and do some work, Dubai racing provides

tremendous pari-mutuel value as well as some of the most exciting racing in the

world.