Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

FEBRUARY 27, 2009

by Dick Powell

CASINO DRIVE (Mineshaft) looked very good last weekend when running second in

the February S. (Jpn-G1) at Tokyo Racecourse in Japan and could be on track for

a big year. The $950,000 yearling purchase was always highly anticipated since

he is a half-brother to Belmont S. (G1) winner Jazil (Seeking the Gold) and a

three-quarter brother to Belmont winner and champion three-year-old filly Rags

to Riches (A.P. Indy).

Some of that promise was fulfilled when Casino Drive broke his maiden in his

career debut by 11 lengths in Japan. With the Belmont as his goal, he was

shipped to the United States where he won the Peter Pan S. (G2) by 5 1/2 lengths

and earned a strong 109 BRIS Speed rating.

In the weeks leading up to the Belmont, things went bad physically for Casino

Drive, and he had to be scratched the day before the race. Owner Hidetoshi

Yamamoto took him back to Japan to prepare for a run at the Breeders' Cup

Classic (G1). When he won an allowance race at Santa Anita two weeks before the

Breeders' Cup, things looked good, but he tired badly after leading for six

furlongs in the Classic and finished last.

Sent back to Japan, his connections continued their policy of avoiding big

races and he showed up next in the Japan Cup Dirt (Jpn-G1) going nine furlongs

in December. Sixth that day but only beaten three lengths, it was a much better

race than it looked, especially considering the miles he had to travel during

the year.

This year, Casino Drive won a listed race by three lengths on the dirt and

showed up for the February back in the deep water. He was sent off at 4-1 behind

the favorite, 2006 winner Kane Hekili (Fuji Kiseki). As expected, Casino Drive

showed high speed from the gate and set up shop behind a very fast pace in

second in the one-mile dirt race. His rider tried to wait as long as possible to

make his move in the stretch and when he struck the front, he was challenged on

the inside by Kane Hekili and Success Brocken (Symboli Kris S) on the outside.

Those three battled to the wire with Success Broken pulling off the upset by

a neck over Casino Drive, with Kane Hekili another head back in third. Time for

the race was 1:34.60, a new track record for the dirt course at Tokyo going a

mile. Considering how well he ran, Casino Drive is expected to show up next in

the Dubai World Cup (UAE-G1) on March 28 at Nad al Sheba. With his tactical

speed, something that is critical on the Nad al Sheba main track, he should be a

major factor in a renewal that looks like it's coming up weak.

Another highly regarded horse that is meeting expectations is DUNKIRK

(Unbridled's Song). His first race at Gulfstream was a solid seven-furlong win

in a modest time that hardly justified his $3.7 million yearling price tag. With

the classic races quickly approaching, trainer Todd Pletcher had to move things

forward and entered him in a very competitive, 1 1/8 mile first-level allowance

race last Thursday.

Against a field of nine other rivals, Dunkirk drew post eight with Garrett

Gomez. He did not show any real turn of foot in his career debut so it looked

like he would be wide on the first turn.

At the start, Gomez broke him in midpack and he wound up at least six wide

for most of the first turn. You can watch all the 1 1/8 mile dirt races since

Gulfstream Park's main track was re-configured and will not see any horse win

after being that wide. It is the kiss of death and things got even worse for

Dunkirk as the big field did not provide Gomez with any opportunity to save

ground the rest of the race.

Even while racing far off the rail, Gomez had Dunkirk striding smoothly down

the backstretch while stalking even fractions of :23.55, :47.39 and 1:11.70. He

continued to make up ground around the far turn while wide and collared the

leaders at the top of the stretch.

With the ground that Dunkirk lost on both turns in the first seven furlongs

of the race, it would not have been surprising if he flattened out in the run

home, but he relentlessly strode forward, separating himself from the field and

reporting home by 4 3/4 lengths. His final time for the nine furlongs was

1:50.15, and he earned a BRIS Speed rating of 107.

The 107 earned by Dunkirk is the highest BRIS speed rating of any horse

pointed for this year's Kentucky Derby (G1) going two turns on any main track --

dirt or synthetic. When you factor in the ground loss, it was an enormous

performance and puts him at the top of the class in terms of talent.

With only two starts under his belt, there are still other questions to be

answered. He has no graded stakes earnings and the way the schedule works out,

he'll probably go in the Florida Derby (G1) on March 28 where he will need to

run no worse than second to have enough graded stakes earnings for the Derby.

With five weeks between the Florida Derby and the Run for the Roses, there's a

good chance that he'll go to Kentucky with only three lifetime starts.

Unlike Old Fashioned (Unbridled's Song), I love Dunkirk's pedigree for

success at the classic distances. Dunkirk is out of Secret Status (A.P. Indy),

winner of the Kentucky Oaks (G1) and Mother Goose S. (G1) at three as well as

being placed in the Alabama S. (G1) and Coaching Club American Oaks (G1). A.P.

Indy brings class and stamina to the speed of Unbridled's Song, and the

combination gives Dunkirk a Dosage Index of 3.00 compared to Old Fashioned's

5.22.

The typical profile of Derby winners continues to change every year. Nobody

thought it was possible to win it off a five-week layoff before Barbaro did it

in 2006 and Big Brown won it last year with only three lifetime starts. And just

like Big Brown, Dunkirk has been impressive both visually and on paper.