Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

MARCH 27, 2009

by Dick Powell

What a sensational day of racing Saturday will be. Twelve races from

Gulfstream Park, highlighted by the Florida Derby (G1), and the Dubai World Cup

card from Nad al Sheba make for a day that should satisfy all your

handicapping and wagering tastes.

At Nad al Sheba in Dubai, six stakes races worth $21 million are carded for

the turf and dirt. Last year, many of the races were won by horses that competed

in the Dubai International Racing Carnival so the form of those races becomes

extremely important.

The turf course at Nad al Sheba is usually rated as "good" which is

comparable to our "firm." But, even though it is in the desert, the turf course

never really gets hard like you would expect so it usually provides a very fair

racing surface for all. With no racing on it in the past three weeks, it should

be lush so all paths should have similar footing. The course is expansive but

the turn at the top of the stretch is tight so saving ground is very important.

What you don't want on the turf course at Nad al Sheba is to be parked out

wide every step of the way. Last year, even Hong Kong superstar Viva Pataca (Marju)

couldn't overcome a wide trip and was upset by South African filly Sun Classique

(Fuji Kiseki). It is imperative for the rider to get as close to the rail as

possible. On the turf course, I would rather have a horse that saves ground and

runs the risk of being blocked than being caught out wide.

The dirt track at Nad al Sheba favors horses with speed or tactical speed.

You can watch races from there online at www.emiratesracing.com and rarely will

you have a horse make up a lot of ground in the stretch even though it is almost

three furlongs long. Part of this is due to the nature of the course and part of

it is due to a severe kickback that the frontrunners throw back into the faces

of those behind them.

If you are not a frontrunner, the next best thing is a wide trip. Time after

time you will see a horse win from an impossibly wide post position. Riders

intentionally avoid getting stuck behind horses and sacrifice ground to get

clear of the kickback. The only real exceptions are experienced horses that race

at Nad al Sheba and have shown an affinity for the track.

Leading off the festivities will be the Godolphin Mile (UAE-G2). This is a

one-turn mile race that attracted a field of 15 competitively-matched middle

distance stars. TWO STEP SALSA (Petionville) has the perfect profile for success

here. The speedy sort drew well in post 4 for Frankie Dettori and was a terrific

third in last year's Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile behind Dubai World Cup (UAE-G1) favorite

ALBERTUS MAXIMUS (Albert the Great). Now owned by Godolphin, Two Step Salsa has

a win over the track going six furlongs in very fast time.

GAYEGO (Gilded Time), also owned by Godolphin, comes into the race with a

similar pattern being a Grade 2 stakes winner in America before coming to Dubai

and winning a Group 3 prep race on Super Thursday going six furlongs. He draws

post 13 which will be to his advantage. Green Coast (Green Desert) has good

local form and might be under the radar screen in the betting pools.

The past two UAE Derbys (UAE-G2) have been dominated by southern hemisphere

horses but this year that should not be the case. DESERT PARTY (Street Cry

[Ire]) has been sensational here in two starts and coupled with his American

form should not only win here but vault to the top echelon of the world's

sophomores. He's that good.

The key to this year's Derby is to try to find some value underneath. I'm

going to go with SOY LIBRIANO (Ride the Rails), who won a listed race at this

distance on Super Thursday, and NAVAL OFFICER (Tale of the Cat), who makes his

dirt debut after running well on different turf courses.

The Golden Shaheen (UAE-G1) is a six-furlong sprint down the Nad al Sheba

straightaway that attracted a dozen sprinters. Bob Baffert has pointed INDIAN

BLESSING (Indian Charlie) for this race all year and off her spectacular win in

the LaBrea S. (G1) she'll be a legitimate favorite. I'll try to beat her with

BIG CITY MAN (Northern Afleet), who has prospered since coming here after

showing strong American form as a juvenile two years ago. He was just beaten

last out here by Gayego and won his two prior starts at course and distance.

DIABOLICAL (Artax) was an even third in the same race in his first start since

the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint and likes this track.

After a one-hour break that is highlighted by a welcoming ceremony that has

to be seen to be believed, the last three races on the card are as good as it

gets anywhere in the world.

The $5 million Dubai Duty Free S. (UAE-G1) has attracted a field of 16 going

slightly less than 1 1/8 miles and it is beyond a head-scratcher. The defending

champ, JAY PEG (Camden Park), is in the race coming off an almost identical

second-place finish in the Jebel Hatta (UAE-G2) as last year and from post 15,

there's a good chance he won't make the top 10.

At one point in the deep stretch of last year's Duty Free it looked like

VODKA (Tanino Gimlet) was going to win. She wound up fourth in the blanket

finish and then went on to win the Yasuda Kinen (Jpn-G1) and Tenno Sho Autumn

(Jpn-G1) at Tokyo and just missed in the Japan Cup (Jpn-G1) going much longer.

She does her best at today's distance, draws post 3 and unlike last year, she

has a prep race over the course. With Yutaka Take in the irons and only 121

pounds, all the ingredients are here.

Along with Vodka, I like TUESDAY JOY (Carnegie [Ire]) who has won two stakes

in a row against males including a fast mile at Randwick last out. She is

trained by the greatest female trainer in racing history, Gai Waterhouse, and

cannot be ignored. ARCHIPENKO (Kingmambo) just missed here last year when flying

late then showed it was no fluke with a strong second in the Arlington Million

(G1). He has a win in a prep race here four weeks ago and is always tough on

this course.

The American contingent is led by KIP DEVILLE (Kipling), who looked like his

old self last out at Gulfstream winning at today's distance in very fast time,

and HYPERBARIC (Sky Classic), who has been pointed for this race by Julio Canani

all winter.

Next up is the $5 million Sheema Classic (UAE-G1), going 1 1/2 miles on the

turf, which drew ONLY 15 horses. KING OF ROME (Montjeu [Ire]) was a multiple

Group 2 stakes winner in Ireland last year and rallied from far back and post 11

last out here at course and distance. He draws post 5 today and looks like he's

rounding into form for Mike De Kock. FRONT HOUSE (Sadler's Wells) won from post

16 last out against many of these and draws the rail today. She draws the rail

here and has the perfect pedigree to get 12 furlongs on the turf.

Underneath the top two, I'll use RUSSIAN SAGE (Jallad), YOUMZAIN Youmzain (Sinndar)

and PURPLE MOON (Galileo [Ire]). All three could win with the right trip.

This year's $6 million Dubai World Cup may not be up to the previous two

year's standards, with reigning American Horses of the Years Invasor (Arg) and

Curlin in the gate, but it should be a very good race to handicap. The lack of a

dirt superstar has resulted in 14 horses entering the starting gate going 1 1/4

miles on the dirt.

I have liked CASINO DRIVE (Mineshaft) all year and am not going to change

now. The half-brother to two Belmont S. (G1) winners was a terrific second in

the February S. (Jpn-G1) at Tokyo going a mile in track record time. He has

strong tactical speed, perfect for Nad al Sheba, and should be able to race near

the front without much effort. His pedigree is sensational and he draws post 8,

which should be just about perfect. He might get overbet a little in the

international pools, but he will be worth it at any price.

The two horses to beat -- ASIATIC BOY (Not For Sale) and WELL ARMED (Tiznow),

ran second and third here last year but neither has ever given the impression

that they relish 10 furlongs. Asiatic Boy looks like he's coming into the race

in better form than last year and his win at course and distance from post 15

was very good. He has more than enough tactical speed to overcome post 4.

Albertus Maximus has found his best form in his last four starts, but I'm still

not convinced that he has true Grade 1 quality.

At Gulfstream Park, the Florida Derby has attracted a field of nine going 1

1/8 miles on the dirt. It looks like a two-horse race between QUALITY ROAD

(Elusive Quality), winner of the Fountain of Youth (G2) last out going a

one-turn mile here, and DUNKIRK (Unbridled's Song), undefeated in two starts

including a sensational allowance win here last out.

You can watch all the 1 1/8 mile dirt races since Gulfstream was

re-configured a few years ago and never see a horse as wide as Dunkirk was on

the first turn and still win. He hasn't missed a beat in his workouts since

then, draws well and gets Garrett Gomez back. Trainer Todd Pletcher is taking no

chances and has entered EUROPE (Unbridled's Song) to ensure an honest pace for

his stablemate.

Potential threats should come from DANGER TO SOCIETY (Harlan's Holiday), the

beaten favorite in the Holy Bull S. (G3) at the distance but making his first

start for Rick Dutrow (32 percent win rate according to BRIS), and THEREGOESJOJO

(Brahms), who beat Quality Road two starts back but was no match in the Fountain

of Youth. I won't be betting this race, but will be watching it intently as it

will be the last start for this group before the first Saturday in May.

Vic Gilardi died last week at the age of 78. The legendary jockey agent was

one of a kind in terms of his professional and personal skills. Someone in

racing should have sat him down years ago and filmed hours and hours of his

memories since he was a link from the modern era back to the glory days of

American horse racing. All you need to know about Vic as a jockey agent was that

his riders had their best years when Vic represented them and that their

business fell when they left.

But it was Vic as a person and racetrack character that will always be

remembered. Vic, or JR, as his wife Jean called him, had a tough Staten Island

accent to understand. My wife would always have this blank look on her face when

he was telling her one of his stories and you knew she didn't have a clue about

what he was saying. Not only did I grow up in Staten Island, but my father was

from the same neighborhood as Vic so I could understand him intuitively.

When Vic talked to you, you had to listen. And I don't mean just nod your

head every once in a while. The command of his personality made you pay

attention and if there was any doubt, Vic would apply "The Claw" where he would

hold onto your forearm as he talked. If he sensed you weren't paying attention,

the Claw would clamp down harder. I always found Vic interesting, but he still

applied the Claw every time he saw me.

Vic had a common sense and street-smart knowledge about people that helped

him and his riders at the track. He also applied it to the business world where

he was a huge success. He easily could have made more money playing the stock

market or making land deals than he could at the track but it was the track,

especially the backstretch and race office, where Vic found his niche. When Vic

gave you his opinion about someone, which he did about virtually everybody, you

could take it to the bank.

For instance, if Vic said that some guy "was a real beauty," they should

start polishing his plaque for his future induction into the Moron Hall of Fame.

Most everyone else was addressed as "Judge," which I never quite understood but

never let on or the torque of the Claw would become too intense. Vic knew

everybody and knew everything about what was going on at the racetrack. Even in

the past few years when he didn't have a rider, he kept up with events at the

track more than anyone else. But when Jean passed away last year, his health

began to fail him at an alarming rate and he joined her last week. He made one

final TV appearance on the AM Saratoga TV show this past August and it was

classic Vic. Going to the track and not running into him will take a long time

to adjust to.