Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

APRIL 3, 2009

by Dick Powell

For most of the winter, Gulfstream Park's lack of rainfall was beginning to

resemble Dubai's. Then, the weather changed and it actually rained in South

Florida. And, in keeping with the comparison, it actually rained in Dubai. And

it had a severe impact on the races in both places.

Dubai is a desert, but it is on the Persian Gulf and does get rainy weather

when the prevailing winds reverse themselves. Last week, rain, and lots of it,

hit Dubai forcing a switch of the outdoor Arabian Nights party to an indoor

locale. By the time Saturday rolled around for the richest day of racing in the

world, the main track was listed as "good" and not the customary "fast."

The main track at Nad al Sheba usually favors front end speed since the

kickback thrown back by the horses in front is very severe. When it does get

wet, speed becomes even more beneficial as the moisture holds the track together

as well as countering the affect of the usual pattern of sun, wind and hot

temperatures.

In the UAE Derby (UAE-G2), REGAL RANSOM (Distorted Humor) went right to the front

to set a fast pace for his more-heralded stablemate, Desert Party (Street Cry

[GB]).

When he turned for home four lengths in front, the game was on as Desert Party

began to eat into the margin. Regal Ransom ran on strongly and was able to hold

off Desert Party to pull off the upset. Even after the wire Desert Party was not

able to get by Regal Ransom.

After the race, racing manager Simon Crisford indicated that both colts would

be shipped to America with the Kentucky Derby (G1) as their next start. It was

the latest example of the less-regarded horse from the same stable beating his

more fancied stablemate.

In the Dubai World Cup (UAE-G1), Aaron Gryder sent WELL ARMED (Tiznow) to the

front as expected. What wasn't expected was Katsumi Ando breaking Casino Drive

(Mineshaft) poorly and then not using him early to keep Gryder company. To make

it worse, Casino Drive was shuffled back between horses and then Ando interfered

with Asiatic Boy (Not for Sale) and Arson Squad (Brahms), taking out some of the

main competitors.

Allen Jerkens used to say, "Speed is like a shot gun -- dangerous in anyone's

hands" and Gryder had a speed horse on a speed track loose on an easy lead. It

doesn't get any better than that, especially in a $6 million race, and he

cruised to a record-breaking 14-length win in the last race ever run at Nad al

Sheba.

It would be hard to top the night that Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum,

Vice President and Prime Minster of the United Arab Emirates and ruler of Dubai.

In the first Thoroughbred race of the night, his TWO STEP SALSA (Petionville)

and Gayego (Gilded Time) ran first and second in the colors of his Godolphin.

His success followed in the next race when Regal Ransom and Desert Party ran

first and second in the UAE Derby. After Godolphin's Diabolical (Artax) ran

third in the Golden Shaheen (UAE-G1), he watched with great pride as GLADIATORUS (Silic)

ran away and hid in the Dubai Duty Free (UAE-G1) on the turf.

What made Gladiatorus' victory so meaningful for Sheikh Mohammed was that he

was owned by his son, Sheikh Mansoor bin Mohammed Al Maktoum, and trained out in the

Dubai Desert by former endurance rider Mubarak Bin Shafya and ridden by local

rider Ahmed Ajtebi.

In the next race, the Sheema Classic (UAE-G1), the result was almost identical in

terms of the connections except that this time the winning owner was another of

Sheikh Mohammed's sons, Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed Al Maktoum.

Unlike the Duty Free where Ajtebi sent Gladiatorus to the lead and never

looked back, he had to take EASTERN ANTHEM (Singspiel [Ire]) to the back of the pack

and sit behind an incredibly slow pace. The 21-year-old Emirati swung Eastern

Anthem to the outside for a clear run, engaged leaders Spanish Moon (El

Prado [Ire]) and Purple Moon (Galileo [Ire]) in the final furlong, kept his mount from

lugging in and got his nose down on the wire to pull off the shocker.

It was an incredible night for two local owners, a local trainer and a local

rider that all have Sheikh Mohammed to thank for their success.

In South Florida, Gulfstream's main track was not wet but had become hard

from recent rains. The track played extremely fast and was kind to speed all

day. By the time the Florida Derby (G1) rolled around, there was a pronounced speed

bias.

In what appeared to be a two-horse race, the edge had to go to the speedy

QUALITY ROAD (Elusive Quality), who was coming off a spectacular win in the

Fountain of Youth S. (G2). His main rival, Dunkirk (Unbridled's

Song), had won his two career starts at Gulfstream but showed no sign of early

speed.

At the start, John Velazquez was content to sit in second place aboard

Quality Road behind Casey's On Call (Gimmieawink). Garrett Gomez had Dunkirk in

sixth place behind a decent pace and was biding his time. The field tightened up

around the far turn and Velazquez had still not asked Quality Road for any run.

Dunkirk made a huge run around the turn out in the middle of the track and

looked like he was going to run right by everyone.

But when Velazquez asked his horse to go, he looked Dunkirk in the eye and

pulled away to a decisive 1 3/4-length win in the track record time of 1:47.72.

Quality Road's BRIS Speed rating of 103 was down from his prior start. What I

think is significant is that for the third time in four lifetime starts, his

BRIS Late Pace number was over 100 -- excellent for a horse with strong early speed.

Dunkirk needed a hard race and got it. Had he romped on Saturday, he would

have gone to Kentucky completely untested. Todd Pletcher has the luxury of five

weeks until the Derby so he can rest him a bit and then tighten the screws. He

became a bit hot in the crowded paddock on Saturday, but that was a good

experience for him to get ready for Churchill Downs.

What I would worry about if I was Pletcher or Jimmy Jerkens, conditioner of

Quality Road, is not how Saturday's track affected the running of the Florida

Derby, but the long-term health issues of racing over a rock-hard racetrack.

To show you what a dope I can be, I played the Magna 5 last Saturday. Despite

all the evidence on how Gulfstream was playing, I singled Dunkirk in the last

leg. So far, no big deal. But, I played another identical ticket with Dunkirk

again as my single in the last leg.

After winning the first four legs on my $50 play, I was alive with Dunkirk

twice. Still, I'm not thinking it's much of a big deal since I am incorrectly

thinking it was not going to pay too much. Quality Road wins the Florida Derby

and then the migraine begins. The Magna 5 paid over $2,100 for a buck even

though Quality Road was sent off at final odds of 6-5 compared to Dunkirk's even

money.

I looked all over for Magna 5 probable payoffs and never did see what it

would have paid with Dunkirk. I'm estimating at least $1,200 for a buck. Had I

known that it was going to pay $2,100 with Quality Road, I probably would have

played him. Instead, I was all in on Dunkirk despite mountains of track bias

evidence that gave Quality Road the edge. I wasn't going to change my mind and

go with Quality Road instead of Dunkirk, but at the very worst I should have had

a $1 ticket using both of them.