Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

MARCH 5, 2010

by Dick Powell

More talented sophomores were in action last weekend at Gulfstream as their

meet continues with numerous classic prospects on display. On January 23 of this

year, Wesley Ward won the 7TH race at Gulfstream with a talented colt named MINE N

GEMS (Mineshaft). Ward is mostly known for training very precocious juveniles

and this one was a good second in his career debut at Calder going 6 1/2

furlongs on the main track.

But, you don't see many Ward trainees being sired by the likes of Mineshaft

(A.P. Indy) and when he stretched him out to seven furlongs the results were

electric. Not only did Mine N Gems cover the distance in 1:21.97, but he beat

what has turned out to be a talented field.

Runner-up that day was GAME ON DUDE (Awesome Again), who was making his

career debut and was only beaten by three-quarters of a length. He earned a

strong BRIS Speed rating of 95 and showed up last Saturday in race 2 at

Gulfstream going a mile against maiden special weight company.

Sent off as the 6-5 favorite, Game on Dude was left at the gate after

breaking in the air. Jeremy Rose rushed him up into contention and then got him

to settle down as he stalked a fast first half mile in :46.86. He cruised around

the turn three wide and took over turning for home. Considering how much energy

he lost making up for his poor start, he had every right to get tired but kept

pouring it on to draw away and win by three lengths. He covered the mile in

1:36.73 and it turned out to be a very solid effort despite the poor start.

Fourth behind Game on Dude back on January 23 was MINER'S RESERVE

(Mineshaft). The Nick Zito trainee was making his career debut that day and went

off at 8-1 odds. Considering that Mineshaft's first-time starters only win 4

percent and Zito only wins with 10 percent of his firsters, a fourth-place

finish in a very fast race going short gave every indication that he would be a

lot tougher with a race under his belt at a longer distance.

Miner's Reserve showed up in Gulfstream's 4TH race on Saturday, the second

division of the dirt mile maiden special weight event, and was sent off as the

3-1 second choice. Zito goes from 10 percent to 18 percent with his second-time

starters, with a positive ROI, but the 6-5 favorite was Bushwhacked (Posse), a

second time starter from Jonathan Sheppard who was a good third behind Game on

Dude on January 23.

Who knew that a son of Mineshaft would outsprint a son of POSSE (Silver

Deputy), but there was Kent Desormeaux taking the lead aboard Miner's Reserve

coming out of the chute. He was under heavy pressure from the outside for most

of the race (we don't know what the pace was since there were no fractions

available) and then opened up in the stretch to beat Bushwhacked by 5 1/2

lengths.

Miner's Reserve covered the mile in 1:35.87 and earned a BRIS Speed rating of

102. Purchased by Robert Lapenta for $150,000 at the Keeneland September

Yearling Sale of 2008, he joins the stable of Coal Play and Cool Coal Man, both

sons of Mineshaft that Lapenta purchased for reasonable prices at auction and

Zito trained to become stakes winners.

Finally on Saturday, RADIOHEAD (Johannesburg) made his dirt debut for Rick

Dutrow Jr. A Group 2 stakes winner in England last May, he came to the Breeders'

Cup Juvenile (G1) for Brian Meehan and was only beaten four lengths despite

breaking poorly from post 11 and having traffic trouble on the first turn.

Now with Richard Dutrow, he trained well at Gulfstream the past two months

but wound up in an allowance race going a mile that drew Grade 1 stakes winner

Homeboykris (Roman Ruler); General Maximus (Freud), undefeated in two starts

including a very fast win here going six furlongs; Call Shot (Tale of the Cat)

who was third in a turf stakes last out in very fast time; and Thomas Got Even

(Stephen Got Even), who was a nine-length, career-debut winner for Zito back in

September.

Even without any dirt form, the betting public wisely made Radiohead the 8-5

favorite. Dutrow wins an amazing 26 percent with a positive ROI when a horse he

takes over makes his first start, and Radiohead has a sneaky dirt pedigree with

his sire winning the Breeders' Cup Juvenile in his dirt debut and his dam being

by Belong to Me (Danzig). At 29-10 odds were Homeboykris and General Maximus,

with Thomas Got Even at nearly 5-1.

General Maximus went to the front and set a moderate pace with Edgar Prado

placing Radiohead to his outside. They covered the first half in a leisurely

:47.92 and six furlongs in 1:12.10. Prado asked Radiohead for run and the

response was spectacular. He threw in a final quarter of :23.80 while drawing

off to a 3 1/4-length win over Homeboykris. His final time of 1:35.90 was

amazing considering how easy the pace (-22, -18) was and he earned a BRIS Speed

rating of 101.

He doesn't look like he has a 10-furlong pedigree, but his dosage index is a

respectable 2.56 and he certainly showed that he can relax early.

CHRISTINE DAAE (Giant's Causeway) was even more impressive than Mine N Gems

when she broke her maiden at Gulfstream going seven furlongs in 1:21.67 and

earning a BRIS Speed rating of 96. Training brilliantly since then, she was

entered in the Davona Dale (G2) on Saturday but instead showed up in an

entry-level allowance race on Sunday going 1 1/8 miles on the main track.

Even though she was meeting six overmatched foes, going from a seven-furlong,

one-turn sprint to a two-turn, nine furlong route is a lot to ask a young

inexperienced runner. The bettors wisely took none of this into consideration

and were betting her with both hands as she went off as the 2-5 favorite.

Corey Nakatani was content to let Kitty in a Tizzy (Tiznow) do all the work

on the front end and sit off modest fractions of :48.36 and 1:12.82. Christine

Daae took over turning for home and raced strong to the wire, winning by 2 3/4

lengths. She covered the 1 1/8 miles in 1:50.26 and considering it was her

two-turn debut and second start on the dirt, it was a very good effort. Her 100

BRIS Speed rating is as good as any three-year-old filly going two turns this

year.

Christine Daae is sired by one of the world's top sires, Giant's Causeway

(Storm Cat), who is showing an ability to sire major winners on dirt, turf and

synthetic. What I love about her pedigree is an in-breed to Secretariat (Bold

Ruler) through Storm Cat's (Storm Bird) dam and broodmare sire Dehere's (Deputy

Minister) dam.