Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

JUNE 18, 2010

by Dick Powell

After winning her first 16 starts, I felt strongly that ZENYATTA (Street Cry

[Ire]) was in deep water for Sunday's Vanity H. (G1) at Hollywood Park. She was

giving major weight to all the entrants including nine pounds to St Trinians

(GB) (Piccolo) who had won her first four starts in North America and then was

the betting favorite when taking on males in the Santa Anita H. (G1). Plus, in

her first two starts this year, she didn't need to run very hard so there was no

definitive proof that she, at the age of six, was the same mare that she was

last year.

But what convinced me to commit a sacrilege and play St Trinians was the

presence of Martin Garcia in the irons. He has a raw, physical talent that

hasn't been seen in many years and it shows when horses just seem to run for

him. Coupled with a strong head on his shoulders, you have a budding riding

superstar. He was riding St Trinians for the first time and it all added up to

making a bet with my head and not my heart. Shame on me.

With the exception of bobbling at the start, Garcia and St Trinians did

everything right. Garcia kept her clear on the outside ahead of Zenyatta and

made a strong move around the turn. When they hit the top of the stretch, Garcia

asked her to run and her response was dramatic. With her eggbeater running

action, she took a clear lead approaching the eighth-pole and looked like she

might hold on.

Unfortunately, for every five of St Trinians' strides, Zenyatta only has to

use four and she was flying on the outside. With less than 100 yards to go, it

still looked like St Trinians was going to win but even with Zenyatta flicking

her ears, she was able to catch her at the wire. It was the 17th installment of

racing's Perils of Pauline and the only participant that thought she was going

to win was Zenyatta herself.

So, the bullet was dodged and the streak continues. Zenyatta continues her

ascent to the stratosphere of great Thoroughbreds and we wait for her next

appearance. St Trinians will have to lick her wounds and get ready for future

races. With her unusual running gait where it looks like all four legs go in

different directions at the same time, my guess is that the Vanity took more out

of her than it did for Zenyatta who basically ran about a half-mile.

***

RACHEL ALEXANDRA (Medaglia d'Oro) was back in action on Saturday at Churchill

Downs in the Fleur de Lis H. (G2). Carrying 124 pounds, last year's Horse of the

Year got back on the winning track with a dominating victory over four

vanquished rivals in the very fast time of 1:48.78 for the 1 1/8 miles.

It's always hard to gauge visually how well a horse is running, but it

certainly looked to me that she was back to her old self. Her head carriage

looked steady and her stride looked effortless. Rachel's final time was faster

than BLAME's (Arch) when winning the Stephen Foster H. (G1) four races later,

and she will try to emulate Affirmed's four-year-old campaign when he lost his

first two starts and then ran the table.

***

As we said above, some jockeys just seem to have the innate ability to get

their horses to run. The jockey has perfect timing with the horse's stride and

through hands and heels is able to communicate instructions to the horse. It is

hard to describe but I know it when I see it.

Martin Garcia obviously has it, and another young rider that has caught my

eye is Alex Gonzalez out at Hollywood Park. Newly arrived after moving his tack

down from Golden Gate, where he was in the top five, the 18-year-old apprentice

will have his book handled by veteran Vince DeGregory.

Watching Gonzalez in his first week of riding the southern California

circuit, it's obvious that horses run for him. He already has three winners in

20 mounts and will have his apprentice allowance until October. With DeGregory

hustling his mounts, he should be a major factor.

Apprentice riders just getting careers started are given an apprentice

allowance to make up for their lack of experience. Once they ride five winners,

they have the "bug" for 12 months. Gonzalez is at a point where he now has a ton

of experience and will have a major advantage the next four months riding with

five pounds off. It could be similar to when Joe Talamo moved his tack from

Louisiana to Southern California. He was already an accomplished rider, and with

five pounds off, he took full advantage with his services in great demand.

***

I like to bet two-year-old races, but there haven't been many here on the

East Coast. Belmont has only run two, so I had to look elsewhere. Luckily, the

opener at Monmouth Park on Saturday was for juvenile maiden claimers going 4 1/2

furlongs on the main track.

Going into the race, I liked CLIFFORD'S JOY (Put it Back) for a number of

reasons. Trainer Jason Servis wins with 25 percent of his debut maiden claimers

and the sire produces a healthy 14 percent debut winners. He had Jose Lezcano in

the irons and was 4-1 in the morning line.

Amazingly, he opened up at 10-1 and then drifted even more in the betting.

When I bet him he was 11-1 and I fully expected his price to come down. The rule

of thumb with maiden races is to watch the board and Clifford's Joy was ice cold

on the board. Eventually he drifted up to 15-1 which usually indicates that

there is no buzz on the horse and the connections feel that he might need a race

to get ready.

Well, Clifford's Joy wound up winning and he showed why BRIS Ultimate Past

Performances are the best. I like to see a combination of nature and nurture --

a strong first-out pedigree with a trainer that is proven to get his horses

ready for their debut. Clifford's Joy had both, and it was enough to overcome

the betting public's lack of interest.