Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

OCTOBER 14, 2011

by Dick Powell

Lots of Breeders' Cup prep races run last weekend, not a lot of space to do

them justice. Here goes.

None of them might be Breeders' Cup bound, but the 1ST race at Belmont on

Saturday was an optional claiming event going seven furlongs on the main track

that was disguised as a graded stakes race. And, it also gave us an early look

at how the Belmont Park main track was going to play that day.

The heavy favorite was last year's Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes winner Boys at

Tosconova, who was making his 2011 debut for Rick Dutrow who is usually deadly

off long layoffs. Second choice was Tapizar, who won this year's Grade 3 Sham

Stakes by four lengths but has been off since February, and the fourth wagering

choice was Uptowncharlybrown, who was only beaten three lengths in the 2010

Belmont Stakes in his last start.

Right from the start, Corey Nakatani gunned Tapizar to the lead while Johnny

Velazquez was content to let Boys at Tosconova settle midpack. What Johnny could

not have known at that point was how the track had been groomed for inside speed

and Tapizar was long gone.

With a first half in :45.92 and no real pressure, Tapizar just kept pouring

it on and the field struggled to make up ground. Nakatani threw in a third

quarter in :23.14 and a final furlong in :12.14 to win by 2 1/4 lengths in the

quick time of 1:21.20. Uptowncharlybrown was a good second as he was forced to

run closer to the pace than he usually does and Boys at Tosconova was a

non-threatening third. Don't know if the winner will be pointed for any of the

Breeders' Cup races, but we could see all three the Saturday after Thanksgiving

in the Grade 1 Cigar Mile.

The stakes action kicked off in the 7TH race with the Grade 1 Jamaica

Handicap going nine furlongs on the inner turf course. Off a big win at Saratoga

when put back on the turf, the betting favorite was Brilliant Speed at 11-10

odds. As good as he looked in Saratoga, and as weak as this field was for a

Grade 1 stakes race, who was going to beat him.

On a course rated as "firm," Nakatani sent Euro import Western Aristocrat to

the front and had things his own way. With a first quarter in :26.27 and a half

in :52.20, there was no pressure coming from anyone else aas the other riders

were content to stalk. Velazquez had Brilliant Speed closer to the pace than

usual while sitting in second. The field began to pick it up a bit entering the

far turn with the third quarter run in :24.01 and then things really heated up

with the fourth quarter run in :22.36.

Nakatani continued to maintain his advantage and when challenged in earnest

turning for home, he poured it on through the stretch to pull off the 7-1 upset

by a length. Brilliant Speed held on for second in a decent effort since he got

no help up front. To show you how bad our turf horses are compared to those that

race in Europe, Western Aristocrat's best race was a third in a Group 3 and he

won a minor race on the all-weather track at Kempton last out where the purse

was $9,772. Shrewd move by Jeremy Noseda to bring him over here for this spot.

Next up was the Grade 1 Frizette Stakes for juvenile fillies going one mile

on the main track. It was here that I felt that the track bias had the most

effect on the outcome. Nakatani, yes, him again, gunned My Miss Aurelia to the

front and never looked back. Stopshoppingmaria tried to run her down while

stalking on the outside and she really had no shot to do it.

Nakatani kept pouring it on and opened up a 3 1/2-length lead with a furlong

to go and drew off to a 5 1/2-length victory in the good time of 1:35.22.

Stopshoppingmaria was a game second but could never get the traction on the

outside to make up any ground. Maybe My Miss Aurelia is the better filly as she

did beat her rival when both made their career debut at Saratoga and she did

show a ton of courage when she won the Grade 2 Adirondack Stakes last out. But

watching the races all day, I have to give Stopshoppingmaria a pass since she

was up against a severe bias.

The historic Grade 1 Champagne Stakes was up next for juveniles going a mile

on the main track and this race had a completely different profile. The horses

that had the most gate speed had the least credentials with the exception of the

eventual winner, Union Rags, who took back at the start.

What made Union Rags win so impressive is how much ability he has shown in

varying circumstances in his three-race career. In his career debut, he rallied

from far off the pace to win going away at five furlongs at Delaware Park. He

then showed up at Saratoga on a sloppy track going 6 1/2 furlongs in the Grade 2

Saratoga Special and he went virtually gate to wire to draw off and win by more

than seven lengths. In the Champagne, he sat in between horses and powered away

to an easy win going a mile. The only thing he hasn't done is go two turns but

there's nothing he has shown so far that would indicate that he can't do it.

Keeneland opened up its Fall meeting on Friday and had two graded stakes

races. Graham Motion sent out New Zealand shipper Hoofit at 12-1 to pull off the

upset in the Grade 3 Phoenix Stakes going six furlongs on the main track while

beating Aikenite, last year's Breeders' Cup Sprint runner-up Hamazing Destiny

and multiple graded stakes-winning sprinter Flashpoint. Considering that he did

it from off the pace on a main track that favored speed, it was a good effort.

Next up on Friday at Keeneland was the Grade 1 Alcibiades Stakes for juvenile

fillies going two turns. It attracted an overflow field of 13 and saw

Stephanie's Kitten rally from far back to win going away with a sudden late move

in the stretch over a bunch of longshots. Before you tell me that the top three

finishers all came off turf races, be aware that the Churchill Downs' main track

is kinder to turf horses than any other main track in America.

On Saturday at Keeneland, The Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes was run for

fillies and mares going six furlongs on the main track. The public made multiple

Grade 1 winner Switch the 9-10 favorite but she was far back early and could

only rally for third. Holiday for Kitten pressed the pace and held on by a head

over Musical Romance in the fast time of 1:08.72. All three fillies should be

factors in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint.

The Grade 1 First Lady Stakes was run for fillies and mares going a mile on

the turf, and the six-year-old mare Never Retreat won it at 4-1 in the fast time

of 1:34.08. Second was Irish shipper Together who rallied well to win the photo

for place over Daveron, who had just won the Grade 2 Ballston Spa Stakes last

out.

In the Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity, the stream of longshots continued when

Dullahan overcame traffic and a wide trip to run down Majestic City, who might

have run out of pedigree late. With the field of 13 and many bad trips, these

horses will be very hard to analyze when they run back in the Breeders' Cup

Juvenile.

Last year, Gio Ponti was a sharp winner of the Grade 1 Shadwell Mile on the

turf. This year, Christophe Clement took the same path and sure enough, his

six-year-old multi-millionaire delivered the goods with a sharp off-the-pace win

over speedballs Get Stormy and Sidney's Candy. At this point in his career, he

does very well with his three-furlong run going a mile than trying to stretch

him out. He'll have Goldikova to contend with again, but you know he'll give it

his best.

Santa Anita on Saturday had the Grade 1 Ancient Title Stakes, and what should

have turned out to be an easy prep for The Factor on his way to the Breeders'

Cup turned out to be a shocker. Sent off as the 2-5 favorite, Martin Garcia

broke The Factor well and went to the lead from post 1. Victor Espinoza gunned

Sirocco Strike up to engage and the duel was on.

Sirocco Strike had never shown the kind of speed that Espinoza was asking him

for, but there he was breathing down The Factor's neck. They ran the first

quarter in :21.27 and the half in an amazing :43.80. Running on fumes nearing

the eighth-pole, he finally began to back off and he finished off the board. The

primary beneficiary of all this was Amazombie, who sat off the pace and rallied

past the tiring leaders to win by three-quarters of a length in 1:08.24.

I know it looked like The Factor refuses to rate, but I was at Oaklawn Park

the day he won the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes going two turns and rated as kindly as

could be. If he draws the inside next time out, he'll have to be used hard but

if he gets a decent post, I think you will see a different horse.