Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

JULY 6, 2012

by Dick Powell

Saratoga opens in two weeks, and the condition book is now available on the

New York Racing Association website --

www.nyra.com. As expected,

purses are higher than ever with the money from the Aqueduct video lottery

terminals providing a big increase over last year.

On opening day, July 20, two-year-old maiden fillies will go five furlongs

and race for $80,000. Last year, the same group raced for $52,000. Maidens going

long will race for $85,000 compared to $54,000 last year. The rest of the races

go up as well.

Even without gaming revenue, Del Mar also announced record purses for the

2012 season. Maidens are going to run for $70,000 compared to $63,000 and the

track has increased their "ship and win" program.

NYRA also announced a new policy regarding two-year-old racing where field

limits will be restricted to eight runners in sprint races and 10 runners going

two turns. Part of the reason to do this was safety, but the other part was to

run more maiden races and have more winners come out of their races that are

then eligible for allowance and stakes races.

So, instead of having 12 juveniles going seven furlongs on the main track,

Saratoga will have eight which will exclude four horses that will now be

available the next time that race is run.

As far as selling this as a safety issue, why are smaller fields important at

Saratoga and not at Belmont, where there were 10 runners in a 5 1/2-furlong race

on the main track? It's not like Saratoga is a bullring.

What it means is we will see many split divisions of juvenile maiden races at

Saratoga. It will be interesting to see if the race office splits trainer's

runners. If Todd Pletcher enters two in a maiden special weight going short, and

the race gets split after being oversubscribed, will the race office put one

each division? Might as well hand Pletcher the trophy for leading trainer right

now.

***

The Lasix debate rages on and heated up on Friday at Prairie Meadows, where

the National HBPA held their summer convention. On a medication panel, which I

had the pleasure to be invited to participate, Tom Conway, a commissioner on the

Kentucky Horse Racing Commission, dropped a bombshell.

Conway was shocked that the responses on a proposed ban on Lasix were so

one-sided since most people that testified at a town hall meeting were against

the ban. He demanded to see the e-mail responses and was shocked to see that in

the package of responses from the anti-Lasix group,

cleanhorseracing.org,

there was a letter supporting the Lasix ban in Kentucky from none other than Tom

Conway himself, who is vehemently against the ban.

"That's what we're dealing with here," Tom Lamarra reported Conway saying in

the Blood-Horse magazine. "They will do anything. This vote in Kentucky

was rigged, but I can tell you, will be shot down. It will not become law in

Kentucky.

"It was predetermined that we'd lose on the issue," Conway said. "We're in a

war with The Jockey Club and breeders who want to tell us what we can do with

our private property. Kentucky is a battleground state, and they're counting on

other states to follow suit. I can tell you this regulation will be found

deficient."

Oh, by the way, Conway's son, Jack, is the Attorney General of the

Commonwealth of Kentucky. Haven't seen any news since I got home about what the

Kentucky Horse Racing Commission was going to do about the tainted responses of

any word from cleanhorseracing.org on getting caught.

I spoke about what the proposed ban on raceday Lasix will have on

handicapping.

In previous columns, I have advocated for the continued use of the

therapeutic medication. Back in 1990, Summer Squall won the Preakness Stakes but

did not go on to the Belmont Stakes since he was a serious bleeder and Lasix was

banned in New York back then. Unbridled won the Kentucky Derby that year, was

second to Summer Squall in the Preakness then went on to the Belmont even though

he was probably a bleeder. Unbridled finished fourth in the Belmont on a hot day

in June and earned the $1 million bonus that required participation in all three

legs of the Triple Crown. Later that year, on a cold day in October at Belmont,

Unbridled came back to win the Breeders' Cup Classic. If you are a bleeder, hot

and humid weather is not what you want.

This year, Bill Casner has been racing his horses without Lasix as his way of

showing that other methods can be employed to combat bleeding. His Right to Vote

was a good second in the Grade 2 Peter Pan Stakes and was made the 9-5 favorite

in the Grade 3 Matt Winn Stakes going two turns on the main track at Churchill

Downs. On a hot Saturday night in Louisville, Right to Vote was beaten 14

lengths despite being allowed to set an easy pace -- half mile in 48.97 seconds

and six furlongs in 1:13.33.

It was one of those races that he did not have any apparent excuse and could

be chalked up to any number of things -- 9-5 favorites get beat all the time.

But, if Right to Vote bled in the Matt Winn Stakes, how was the betting public

protected? It was a night where the atmospheric conditions were conducive to

exercise-induced pulmonary hemorrhaging and without Lasix, he might have bled.

But, we will never know since the same horse racing industry that talks about

integrity does not provide bleeding information that their international

counterparts do.

Think about it. The same people that want to ban Lasix base part of their

argument on what the rest of the world does, yet refuse to provide bleeding

information to its bettors like the rest of the world does. Other countries have

detailed stewards' reports available after the races that would indicate if a

horse bled. Not here. So what do we do the next time Right to Vote runs? If it's

up here in Saratoga on a hot, muggy day, there's no doubt about what I am going

to do. Makes you wish exchange wagering were available in America.

How about Went the Day Well? He looked great finishing fourth in the Derby

and went off as the fourth betting choice in the Preakness. He finished second

last and was out of gas with a half-mile to run but there's nothing in the chart

about bleeding. Maybe he didn't bleed but he certainly ran like a horse that

did. And, he was treated not only with Lasix but had adjunct medications

administered as well. If Lasix is going to be banned, the industry better wake

up and start giving its bettors more information on the bleeding issue.

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