Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

JANUARY 13, 2006

by Dick Powell

Gulfstream Park's eight-race, opening-day card on Wednesday left a lot to be

desired. Bad food and such small portions.

However, after closing the plant on Thursday and Friday due to delays in the

construction of the new clubhouse and grandstand, Gulfstream came back strong

with a terrific card Saturday that drove home the point of why we look forward

to this meet each year.

Saturday dawned sunny and a bit cool with the 1ST race post time

temperature of 51 degrees. In the opener, the betting public made Promoted

Deputy (Deputy Minister) a horrible favorite for her American debut off some

efforts at Nad al Sheba, where she usually dwelt at the start. The four-year-old

went off as the 3-2 favorite against six rivals in a first-level allowance

sprint and, sure enough, was left at the gate. CANDY BOX (Running Stag), a

homebred for Frank Stronach's Adena Springs Farm, rallied three wide to win

going away in the decent time of 1:10.77.

Race 2 was an ultra-competitive maiden special weight sprint for

newly turned three-year-olds. Following on his record successes in 2005, Todd Pletcher showed on opening day that he will take no prisoners this year. Here, Pletcher sent out EXCLUSIVE QUALITY (Elusive Quality) to a

sharp win under a heady ride by John Velazquez, who made a winning move on the

far turn and kept Fourth of Gold (Touch Gold) boxed in. His final

time was a good 1:10.62 and it will be interesting to see if he can stretch out

with a sprinter's pedigree on his dam's side.

Pletcher and Velazquez came right back in race 3 with another win when

KEYED ENTRY (Honour and Glory) dueled on the front end and suddenly drew off to

a handy win in 1:09.47 over nine first-level allowance foes. The public sent off

Formal Appeal (Successful Appeal) as the 28-10 favorite and he wound up a

one-paced third. Keyed Entry paid $14 to win and, despite not always taking

money, Pletcher continues his winning ways.

Older allowance horses were up next in a first-level sprint. After getting

burned in the last race, the public sent Pletcher's Venetian Sunset (Old

Trieste) off as the 8-5 favorite, but he had nothing. CRUNCH THE NUMBERS (Vicar),

with Jerry Bailey aboard, rallied between horses on the turn and made a strong

run in the stretch to win going away at very generous 7-2 odds.

Race 5 was the Hal's Hope H. (G3), a two-turn main track route for older

horses. It was not the strongest field in the world, and the public made Philanthropist

(Kris S.) the lukewarm 9-5 favorite off a game win in the Queens County H. (G3)

last out at Aqueduct. The next four contenders were between 7-2 and 6-1, and it

looked like the winner would come from this group.

Longshot Ricardo A (Out of Place) gunned to the front with Eddie King Jr. and

opened up a clear, uncontested lead. Shaun Bridgmohan set up shop behind him on

ON THIN ICE (Tactical Cat), who tracked a strong pace of 23.17 and 46.34. The

rest of the field was bunched up and Bridgmohan took advantage of his position

-- he could take the lead any time he wanted but would wait as long as no one

made a big move on his outside.

On the far turn, Bridgmohan could wait no more and swung around Ricardo A with a

host of contenders bearing down on him. He vigorously shook the reins and On

Thin Ice responded well with an energetic burst of speed, drawing off to win by

5 3/4 lengths and stopping the teletimer in 1:48.05, which is a sensational time

for the Gulfstream main track that was re-surfaced last season.

Longshot Network (Pulpit) rallied nicely for second and Seek Gold (Touch

Gold) was an even third. As good as the winner was, you hope that this race was

not an indicator of what the handicap division will look like in South Florida

this year.

The turf course got its first use in race 6 when 12 maidens went postward going 1 1/16 miles. Miracle Moment (Chester House) went to the front

from post 12 and was able to get to the rail and set modest fractions of :23.74

and :47.80. So far so good. As they entered the far turn, he started giving Rafael Bejarano trouble by trying to get out and, despite his jockey's resistance,

Miracle Moment won the battle and bolted to the outside at the top of the

stretch. He looked like Broad Brush in the 1986 Pennsylvania Derby (G2), except

Broad Brush still won that race while Miracle Moment could only get sixth after

losing all his momentum.

Edgar Prado had HOPES AND DREAMS (More Than Ready) in a perfect stalking spot

and won handily by 2 1/2 lengths. Ambling (Chester House) rallied from far back

to get third after being shut off at the start. He won't be a maiden much

longer.

The Aventura S. was up next and a field of 12 three-year-olds went to the

post for this one-turn mile event. Last year, Florida Derby (G1) winner High Fly

romped in this race and stamped himself as a legitimate Triple Crown

contender, but this year's field had 11 horses who would be eligible for

second-level allowance conditions and only one graded winner.

In Summation (Put It Back), Little Cliff (Gulch) and Dixie Swinger

(Unbridled's Song) went to the lead out of the chute and were pressed by My

Golden Song (Unbridled's Song) down on the rail, DOCTOR DECHERD (Louis Quatorze)

between horses and Itsallboutthechase (Devil His Due) moving up on the outside.

Even with a second quarter faster than the first, the field remained

tightly packed and they headed into the far turn with 10 of the 12 having a real

shot at the win.

As the three leaders reached the top of the stretch, Bridgmohan swung Doctor

Decherd around the tiring pacesetters while being pressed on the outside by

Itsallboutthechase. He was able to keep from getting shut off and finally had

clear sailing with three-sixteenths of a mile to go but had a tough rival on his

outside. Doctor Decherd battled gamely on the inside and with a furlong to go it

looked like Itsallboutthechase would narrowly win, but Doctor Decherd would not

be denied and got up in the final stride to win by a nose. They ran their first

half in :46.06 and took :51.69 to negotiate the final half.

Other than the top two, it's hard to say whether we saw any legitimate classic

contenders in here. Doctor Decherd has a lot of stamina in his dam's pedigree

and with his natural speed, he could be a factor as the races get longer. His maiden

win last fall at Keeneland was spectacular and the sophomore was dead fit in

here for Steve Asmussen, who trained him to the minute at Palm Meadows.

HOLDEN CHAMPAGNE (Hennessy) rallied from far back behind a slow pace to win

the 8TH race -- a turf event going nine furlongs for $30,000 claimers who had not won two races. Behind him was a six-horse photo finish for second that was

won by Kendrick's Patsy (Out of Place).

The 9TH was the Mr. Prospector H. (G3), the last of a trio of stakes

races. A field of eight went to the gate, including 2003 Kentucky Derby (G1)

winner Funny Cide (Distorted Humor), who was making his first start in 189 days

for Barclay Tagg. Training beautifully in the morning, he was a major question

mark in here and the race had all the earmarks of a prep race for future

two-turn events.

Despite Bridgmohan winning the first two stakes races on the card, the

betting public dismissed him at nearly 6-1 aboard GAFF (Maria's Mon), who

is also trained by Asmussen. Friendly Island (Crafty Friend) was sent off as the

tepid near 5-2 favorite as the money was spread pretty evenly on all eight

starters.

Velazquez gunned Friendly Island to the front and was pressed on the inside

by War Front (Danzig). Sitting just off them on the outside was Bridgmohan

aboard Gaff, who sacrificed ground but avoided getting into traffic. The pace

quickened as the race went on and Bridgmohan had chosen the right path since the

front runners were not going to come back to him.

After a half-mile in :45.10, they really poured it on and Friendly Island

streaked by the furlong pole in :56.57 with Gaff closing in and War Front

re-rallying after having some traffic problems at the top of the stretch. Gaff

was able to get by the leader and hold off War Front's desperate final rally to

win by a neck in the good time of 1:08.50. They ran their final quarter mile in

:23.40 and all three of the top finishers can be proud of their effort.

As for Funny Cide, he raced down on the rail throughout and never showed any

kick in the stretch, finishing seventh of eight. He seemed to come out of the

race in good order and Tagg said after that they might look for a two-turn race

next time out.

The last race of the day saw Rafael Bejarano overcome post 12 with EINSTEIN

(Brz) (Spend a Buck), who won going away on the turf in the brilliant time of

1:45.84 for nine furlongs to cap a great day of racing at Gulfstream.

Gulfstream may still be having problems with on-going construction, but on

the track everything seems to be running smoothly.