Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

JANUARY 11, 2013

by Dick Powell

The Dubai World Cup Carnival opened up at the spectacular Meydan Race Track

in Dubai on Thursday and, as always, it provided big, juicy fields with tons of

pari-mutuel value.

Each year, the Carnival offers 10 days of high class racing as a prelude to

the richest day of racing in the world; the night of the Dubai World Cup on

March 30. With strong purses available, many horsemen target the Carnival for a

special season of racing. With warm weather to train in and many expenses

covered by the Dubai Racing Club, more and more horsemen are showing up at

Meydan, which means big fields.

In fact, this year, the safety limit has been raised in some races from 14

runners to 16 to accommodate the amount of horses on the grounds and the

expansive turf course and Tapeta main track can handle it easily.

In no apparent order of importance, here are some of the areas you need to

know to have success at the races there:

Post positions do not match up with program numbers. Like most of the world,

post position draws are not tied to program numbers. In many cases, especially

in handicap races, the highest weighted horse is given program number 1 and so

on. Close to half the races at Meydan are international handicaps. When horses

have the same weight assigned, the numbers are then drawn alphabetically. In

most stakes races, the program number DOES match the post position.

Pay attention to the conditions of the handicap races. The typical ones that

you will see during the Carnival are for horses rated 95-105, 100-110 and 100+.

The ratings are found on the Dubai Racing Club web site:

www.dubairacingclub.com.

A horse could be rated 102 and eligible for all three conditions. The 100+

handicap races are similar to listed stakes races and many group stakes winners

show up in them since they could be rated 115 and be eligible.

Even though the turf course is usually "firm," it will be listed as "good."

And even though it usually is dry, the course has a degree of softness to it and

it is not the speed-favoring firm turf that we are used to. Previous experience

and success on it is important and you can use the Trakus information on the

Dubai Racing Club web site to see what the pace of the race was.

Frankie Dettori will not be riding this year's Carnival as he is suspended

because of a positive drug test. The leading rider at the Carnival was always a

dominant presence here and it means major changes with the Godolphin operation,

which will now be using Mickael Barzalona and Silvestre De Sousa as their

primary riders. Ted Durcan gets a lot of rides from the Blue Team and does a

great job and often times you will see the lesser regarded entrant from

Godolphin get the job done.

The Tapeta main track provides a safe and fair racing surface for all the

horses. If there is a bias on it, it might be that the races run early on the

card do not favor speed as much as the races run late in the card. This is due

to the track cooling off and getting tighter as the night moves on. The main

track is banked on the turns so it's not unusual to see a horse racing wide

coming out of the final turn and make a big move since he might be losing ground

but he's not losing momentum.

On Opening Day this year, the simulcast feed sent over here did include the

Trakus information at the bottom of the screen, which makes it easier to follow

the races. Big improvement.

Pay attention to the various trainer interviews that are broadcast during the

raceday. Trainers like Saeed bin Suroor and Mike de Kock are incredibly candid

about their horses and hold nothing back. You can take what they say literally

and not have to get your "Trainer Speak" dictionary out.

Turf horses handle the Tapeta very well but if you pay close attention to the

past performances, there are plenty of European runners that already have form

on synthetic tracks. Just because a horse is coming in from there, it doesn't

always mean that they are just a turf horse so pay attention to the "All

Weather" symbol in the past performances or the AW in the career box.

Betting is a bit different but similar to other international racing

jurisdictions. The pools are hosted by Phumelela in South Africa and are subject

to the rules of South African racing. There is Win and Place betting but Place

betting is similar to Show betting where it pays down three positions. So a

Place bet on a horse that finishes third still pays off.

Beyond Win and Place are the normal assortment of exactas, $.50 cent

Trifectas, $.10 cent Superfectas, rolling pick 3s and a late daily double. The

Exacta and Trifecta get a lot attention and the gigantic payoffs reflect the

field sizes that should be even bigger this year.

One guessing game that you have to play every year is when is a trainer using

a horse for just conditioning to get ready for a bigger race down the road. The

whole Carnival builds to a crescendo on World Cup night with its staggering

purses. Sometimes you'll see a horse runs what seems to be a poor race, but it

really is just a stepping stone.

Last year, I misjudged Monterosso in the World Cup and it cost me dearly. The

previous year, I thought he had a big shot behind Victoire Pisa and he almost

pulled it off with a run up the inside at odds of 50-1. Last year, he was a dull

fourth, beaten 6 1/2 lengths in the Group 1 Maktoum Challenge Round III and I

didn't use him the way I should of in the World Cup.

He came back three weeks later and was a different horse in the World Cup,

dominating by three lengths over a stellar field. His previous race was just a

warm-up and I missed it, which for me, was inexcusable since I gave him a big

chance the year before.

With racing each Thursday, you have plenty of time to go over replays, trakus

charts, and Steward's Reports to get ready for the next week's racing so you

should be tied on the next time they run.